Guosen Securities Co.,Ltd. released a research report stating that as annual quotas continue to be consumed, each company has limited goods available for sale within the year, showing obvious bullish sentiment and reluctance to sell, with strong price support from the supply side. R32 new order prices may still have further upward potential, with estimated average prices of 62,000 yuan/ton, 63,000 yuan/ton, and 64,000 yuan/ton for September-November respectively. Additionally, with the development of AI technology, server power density has significantly increased, and traditional air cooling methods have reached bottlenecks. Liquid cooling technology can effectively reduce data center PUE, with immersion and dual-phase cold plate liquid cooling becoming future trends, driving rapid growth in demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants. Perfluoropolyether, hydrofluoroether, perfluoramine, and hexafluoropropylene oligomers each have their advantages.
Guosen Securities' main viewpoints are as follows:
**Mainstream Refrigerant Products Expected to See Stable Price Growth**
For R32, as annual quotas continue to be consumed, each company has limited goods available for sale within the year, showing obvious bullish sentiment and reluctance to sell, with strong price support from the supply side. New order prices may still have further upward potential. Average prices are estimated at 62,000 yuan/ton, 63,000 yuan/ton, and 64,000 yuan/ton for September-November respectively.
For R134a, as annual quotas continue to be consumed, sellers' bullish sentiment may continue to strengthen. With fourth-quarter export demand gradually increasing and long-term contract orders for aerosol cans entering negotiation stages, fundamental support remains strong, and the market may still have further upward expectations. Zhuo Chuang Information predicts that domestic R134a refrigerant market prices may continue their steady upward trend over the next three months, with estimated average prices of 52,000 yuan/ton, 53,000 yuan/ton, and 54,000 yuan/ton for September-November.
Regarding export prices, as of July 2025, export average prices for R22, R32, R134a and other products are still inverted compared to domestic monthly prices due to factors such as customs clearance and shipping cycles, but enterprise domestic and export quotations have become consistent. Specifically, July 2025 R32 export average price was 46,576 yuan/ton, R22 export average price was 26,480 yuan/ton, R134a export average price was 44,598 yuan/ton, and R125/R143 series export average price was 31,665 yuan/ton.
**High Air Conditioning Production Base Last Year, September 2025 Total Air Conditioning Production Down Year-over-Year**
In the first half of 2025, air conditioning domestic sales production data continued to rise. January-February gave way to export passive reduction, March gradually picked up volume. Besides seasonal stocking factors, the two new policies also had significant promotion effects. May-June showed strong growth with the approach of the 618 promotion period and peak demand season. Entering summer, high temperatures in Northeast, Shandong, Henan and other regions drove air conditioning terminal market sales growth, with industry inventory further digested.
Entering the third quarter, September household air conditioning domestic sales production showed a declining trend, partly affected by last year's high subsidy base, and partly due to further demand overdraft in the first half, with companies being somewhat reserved about production expectations.
For exports, according to customs data, China's cumulative air conditioning exports from January-July were 44.92 million units, up 4.2% year-over-year. Export markets began showing decline trends from May, with June showing declines in all regions except Oceania which maintained growth due to a small base. July exports were affected by high inventory pressure and were in an overall downward cycle, with only Europe showing growth due to favorable high-temperature weather and Oceania achieving some growth due to a low base, while Asia and Latin America showed declines due to restricted entrepot trade.
For production scheduling, according to Industrial Online's household air conditioning domestic sales production report, September 2025 production was 5.72 million units, down 6.3% year-over-year; October domestic sales production fell 23.4% year-over-year, and November production fell 17.6% year-over-year. For export production, September 2025 export production was 5.025 million units, down 16.6% year-over-year; October and November export production decline ratios gradually improved.
**Liquid Cooling Drives Increased Demand for Upstream Fluorinated Liquids and Refrigerants**
With AI technology development, server power density has significantly increased, and traditional air cooling methods have reached bottlenecks. Liquid cooling technology can effectively reduce data center PUE, with immersion and dual-phase cold plate liquid cooling becoming future trends, driving rapid growth in demand for upstream fluorinated liquids and refrigerants. Perfluoropolyether, hydrofluoroether, perfluoramine, and hexafluoropropylene oligomers each have their advantages. Attention should be paid to Juhua Group, Sanmei Chemical, DONGYUE GROUP, Yonghe Co., Ltd., and others.
Additionally, R134a can be used in dual-phase cold plate coolants. Juhua Group has R134a quota of 76,500 tons, accounting for 37%; Haohua Technology has 54,200 tons quota, accounting for 26%; Sanmei Chemical has 49,900 tons quota, accounting for 24%.
**Investment Recommendations**
In 2025, second-generation refrigerant compliance accelerated reduction, third-generation refrigerant quota system continues, with high industry concentration for R22, R32 and other varieties. On the demand side, affected by national subsidy policy stimulus and demand growth in emerging regions like Southeast Asia, domestic and overseas air conditioning production and scheduling have significantly increased. Second-generation refrigerants like R22 are expected to see supply-demand gaps in 2025 under rapid supply contraction and air conditioning maintenance market support. Although third-generation refrigerant R32 supply increased slightly year-over-year, 2024 inventory was depleted and demand also showed rapid growth, expected to maintain tight supply-demand balance in 2025.
Guosen Securities believes that refrigerant quota constraint tightening is a long-term trend direction. Under this background, it is optimistic that the prosperity of second and third-generation refrigerants like R22 and R32 will continue, with prices still having significant long-term upward space. Corresponding second and third-generation refrigerant quota leading companies are expected to maintain long-term high profitability levels. Additionally, it is optimistic about the liquid cooling industry's boost to fluorinated liquid and refrigerant demand.
Attention should be paid to fluorochemical leading companies with complete industrial chains, comprehensive infrastructure, leading refrigerant quotas, and advanced process technology, as well as upstream resource leaders.
Related targets: Juhua Group (600160.SH), DONGYUE GROUP (00189), Sanmei Chemical (603379.SH) and other companies.
**Risk Warnings**
Fluorochemical product demand below expectations; policy risks (stricter environmental policies for fluorine refrigerants, accelerated upgrade and replacement processes, changes in quota allocation policies, etc.); global trade friction and export obstacles; low real estate cycle prosperity; company project commissioning progress below expectations; rising raw material prices; chemical safety production risks, etc.