Guosen Securities issued a research report maintaining an "outperform" rating for JD-SW (09618), citing the company's disciplined investment in new food delivery business and continuous improvement in core e-commerce efficiency. The firm adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 to RMB 1,334.8/1,419.7/1,488.2 billion respectively, and revised adjusted net profit projections for 2025-2027 to RMB 29.8/40.8/56.7 billion, representing adjustments of +2.2%/+1.7%/+1.2%.
The firm noted that the company's third-quarter revenue performance was outstanding, expecting revenue growth of +13% year-over-year. On the revenue front, Guosen Securities anticipates JD Group achieved Q3 operating revenue of RMB 293.9 billion, up 13% year-over-year, primarily driven by government subsidies boosting JD Retail's revenue growth rate (24Q3/25Q2 revenue yoy +5%/22%). JD Retail revenue is expected to grow +11%, with electronics categories showing high single-digit growth and daily necessities categories achieving double-digit growth. Food delivery business order volume increased sequentially from Q2, mainly driven by seasonal factors. The firm expects Q3 revenue growth rates of +11%, +20%, and +230% for JD Retail, JD Logistics, and new businesses respectively.
From an operational perspective, the firm expects JD's Q3 GMV growth of around 15% (July-August online retail market yoy +12.9%), with market share continuing to recover, primarily driven by trade-in programs in electronics categories. On the user side, quarterly active purchasing users and user purchase frequency both maintained strong growth, mainly benefiting from government subsidies and new food delivery business momentum. Among the first batch of entirely new food delivery users acquired in March-April this year, 40% had converted to main platform users by July.
On the profit side, the company is expected to achieve a Non-GAAP net margin of 1.4% in 2025Q3. JD Retail's operating margin is expected to improve by 0.3 percentage points year-over-year, mainly due to improved product gross margins driven by supply chain efficiency gains and structural adjustments from faster growth in commission and advertising revenue. The new food delivery business launched this year shows sequential improvement in unit economics, primarily benefiting from the company's decision not to follow competitors' large-scale user subsidies in Q3, stable growth in regular meal proportions, and improved delivery efficiency and more precise subsidies contributing to unit economics improvement.