During Wednesday's Asian trading session, the international gold price rebounded, with XAU/USD climbing back to around $4600. This recovery follows a recent decline to approximately $4100, which marked a near four-month low and represented one of gold's worst weekly performances since the 1980s. This volatility reflects a significant market rebalancing between geopolitical risks and macroeconomic expectations.
Market surveys indicate that signals from the U.S. suggesting progress in negotiations with Iran, including mentions of "goodwill gestures," have somewhat alleviated concerns about an escalating conflict. However, senior Iranian military advisors have simultaneously stated that hostilities will continue until adequate compensation is achieved. This conflicting information has created摇摆不定 market expectations, indicating that geopolitical risks have not disappeared but have entered a phase of heightened uncertainty.
Against this backdrop, gold's appeal as a traditional safe-haven asset has recovered, driving the price rebound from its lows. It is important to note that this rally is not driven solely by safe-haven demand but results from multiple factors. On one hand, the rapid previous decline led to significantly oversold technical conditions, triggering a short-term corrective bounce. On the other hand, a temporary improvement in risk sentiment has prompted renewed capital allocation into the precious metals market.
However, from a deeper perspective, the current rebound appears more as a sentiment adjustment rather than a trend reversal. The core driver behind gold's earlier decline was rising interest rate expectations and higher real yields. The Middle East conflict, by pushing up energy prices, reinforces inflationary pressures, indirectly weakening market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. In this environment, gold, as a non-yielding asset, faces reduced attractiveness. If war-induced inflationary pressures persist, investors may prefer income-generating assets like government bonds over gold. This suggests that the interest rate path remains the key variable determining gold's medium-term trajectory, more so than purely geopolitical events.
From a sentiment perspective, the market is currently in a typical phase where risk-on and risk-off sentiments alternate dominance. Any signs of de-escalation boost risk assets and pressure gold, while escalation renews safe-haven demand and supports prices. Consequently, short-term gold price movements are likely to exhibit high-frequency oscillation rather than a clear directional trend.
Technically, on the daily chart, gold formed a provisional low near $4100 before rebounding quickly, but it remains within a corrective phase of the prior downtrend. While momentum indicators have improved, they have not yet generated a trend reversal signal. Significant resistance lies near $4750, corresponding to a previous area of dense trading activity and trendline resistance, making a breakthrough difficult. On the 4-hour chart, the price shows a typical oversold rebound pattern, with successively higher highs but decelerating momentum, indicating weakening upward force. In the short term, noticeable selling pressure exists above $4600; failure to consolidate above this level could lead to a retest of lower supports. The $4300 level constitutes a crucial support zone; a break below it might reopen downward momentum.
Overall, gold is more likely to maintain wide oscillations within the $4300-$4750 range, awaiting new macroeconomic catalysts.