According to third-party data sources such as Jiuqian and Chanmama, Douyin's cosmetics GMV increased by over 20% year-on-year in January 2026, showing an acceleration compared to the fourth quarter of 2025. This improvement was primarily driven by brands focusing on daily sales and self-operated live streams, combined with the timing effect of the Lunar New Year holiday, leading to a marginal enhancement during the traditionally slow season. Looking ahead to 2026, the overall cosmetics market is expected to maintain steady growth. The sector demonstrates strong growth attributes due to frequent product innovations and the rising trend of domestic brands. It is recommended to adopt a bottom-up approach to select companies with strong product and brand momentum that are positioned for rapid growth, as well as those with recovery potential due to changes in products and channels.
GTHT's main views are as follows: Influenced by adjustments in sales strategies and the timing of the Lunar New Year, the cosmetics sales during the off-season showed marginal improvement. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the retail sales of cosmetics consumer goods in December 2025 increased by 8.8% year-on-year, significantly surpassing the overall retail sales growth of 0.9%. This growth accelerated sequentially, mainly because brands, amid channel decentralization, focused on regular sales to reduce reliance on major promotions, achieving high growth during the off-season. For the full year of 2025, cosmetics retail sales reached 465.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%.
Based on third-party data from Jiuqian and Chanmama, Douyin's cosmetics GMV in January 2026 grew by more than 20% year-on-year, accelerating from the fourth quarter of 2025. This was mainly due to brands emphasizing daily sales and self-operated live streams, coupled with the impact of the Lunar New Year's timing, resulting in marginal improvement during the slow season.
Theme One: Companies with strong product and brand momentum, expected to achieve high growth through new product launches and category expansion. 1) Ruoyuchen: The high-end home cleaning brand Zhanjia continues to perform strongly. In 2026, the health supplement segment is expected to focus on launching new products featuring the AKK ingredient. Feicui has launched its Plus line, including silver and green bottle AKK products. Nuibay has introduced a new 30-billion AKK product. Positive outlook is held for new product performance amid the probiotic weight-loss trend. 2) Beijiajie: The core OEM oral care business remains stable. Its subsidiary, Shanenkang, is expected to benefit from the AKK ingredient trend, achieving high growth in its probiotic raw material business. 3) Maogeping: Positioned as a high-end and scarce brand, it is expected to continue expanding its offline counters and has potential for volume growth online. With efforts across makeup, skincare, and perfume products, sustained rapid growth is anticipated. 4) Linqingxuan: Benefiting from the trend of using oils for skincare, its hero product, the essence oil, continues to see volume growth. The new Little Gold Pearl Essence Water launched in the second half of 2025 performed impressively, with ongoing category expansion. 5) Shanghai Me: The main brand, Han Shu, continues to expand its categories. Sub-brands like Yiye and Anminyou are experiencing high growth with their hero products. The company's ability to build a multi-brand matrix is viewed positively.
Theme Two: Leading companies with strong brand assets, expected to show marginal improvement after adjustments. 1) Beteni: Since 2025, the company has actively adjusted its channel and product portfolio mechanisms, promoting product structure upgrades and profit recovery. Douyin GMV showed strong growth in January 2026. In 2026, building on classic hero products like the Special Care Cream and sunscreen, the Barrier series is expected to drive steady growth for the main brand. Meanwhile, sub-brands such as Winona Baby and Aoxmed are anticipated to achieve significant volume growth. 2) Proya: After a stable transition in 2025, the company has a clear strategy for new product launches in 2026. Hero products like the Yuanli Water Light Spray and the Ruby Micro-Bead Essence have been successively launched. Recent introductions include the PROYA MED, PROYA MEN, and PROYA LIGHT series, enriching coverage across different customer segments, functions, and price points. Furthermore, sub-brands like Caitang and OR are expected to gain further traction in 2026, with the multi-brand and multi-product line strategy likely to restore steady company growth.
Investment Recommendation: Recommend Overweight: 1) High-growth companies with strong fundamentals: Ruoyuchen (003010.SZ), Beijiajie (603059.SH), Maogeping (01318), Linqingxuan (09697), Shanghai Me (02145). 2) Companies showing improvement from a low base: Beteni (300957.SZ), Proya (603605.SH), Dengkang Kouqiang (001328.SZ), Shanghai Jahwa (600315.SH), Runben (603193.SH), etc. Beneficiary company: Sihuan Pharmaceutical (00460).
Risk Warning: Industry slowdown, intensified competition, new products and new brands underperforming expectations.