On May 12, the cryptocurrency market maintained its strong performance, with Bitcoin trading steadily between $80,000 and $81,000 per coin. Since the beginning of May, Bitcoin has accumulated a gain of approximately 5%. If the month closes positively, it will mark a pattern of three consecutive months of positive returns in March, April, and May. Moneta Markets noted that BTC has recovered significantly from previous lows, with sustained institutional inflows and reasonable leverage levels supporting the continuation of the bullish trend. The institution highlighted that key signals monitored by professional investors consistently point to the next critical target level around $85,200 per coin.
From a market structure perspective, perpetual contract funding rates have shifted from negative to neutral, indicating a clear release of previous short-selling pressure. Moneta Markets observed that market makers hold short gamma exposure around $82,000 per coin, and price increases could trigger hedging-related buying, providing further upward momentum. The institution stated that if Bitcoin closes above $80,000 in May, it would confirm a new bull market pattern based on historical trends. Analysts emphasized that three consecutive months of gains have never occurred in a bear market historically, and the overall capital structure remains healthy.
On the macroeconomic front, changes in the Federal Reserve chairmanship and potential policy adjustments at the June meeting introduce uncertainty for the market ahead, increasing the likelihood of data-driven price movements. Institutions have noted that long-term holders' positions remain relatively stable, miner selling pressure is moderate, and market structure shows no significant deterioration, with on-chain data maintaining relative health. Marginal changes in stablecoin market capitalization, trends in perpetual contract funding rates, on-chain active address data, and shifts in miner holdings are also important indicators for assessing institutional sentiment and leverage levels in the crypto market, requiring comprehensive analysis across multiple dimensions. For long-term participants, focusing on whether weekly closes hold above key levels provides more meaningful guidance than intraday volatility.
Moneta Markets anticipates that Bitcoin may continue to test higher within the range of $78,000 to $85,000 per coin in the short term, with directional moves more likely driven by macroeconomic data and institutional capital behavior. The institution emphasized that the high volatility and leverage sensitivity of crypto assets require investors to prioritize risk budgeting and position control. Monitoring the Federal Reserve's policy path, Treasury yield trends, regulatory developments, and spot ETF fund flows is crucial to avoid overtrading driven by one-sided sentiment and to adapt rationally to market transition periods.