Abstract

Confluent, Inc. will release fiscal Q4 results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview compiles the company’s last-quarter performance, current-quarter forecasts, and prevailing institutional commentary to frame expectations on revenue, margins, profitability, and adjusted EPS alongside the most influential business drivers this quarter.

Market Forecast

Consensus for Confluent, Inc.’s current quarter indicates revenue of USD 308.06 million, up 19.91% year over year, with forecast EBIT of USD 22.40 million and EPS of USD 0.10; year-over-year growth rates are 156.81% for EBIT and 72.74% for EPS. The company’s model focuses on high-margin subscription expansion, suggesting a steady gross profit margin profile and incremental improvement in net profitability aligned with operating leverage. The main business continues to be subscription, with ongoing account expansion and cloud adoption; the fastest-growing opportunity remains cloud-delivered data streaming, anchored by subscription revenue of USD 286.34 million last quarter and strong year-over-year momentum.

Last Quarter Review

Confluent, Inc. delivered last quarter revenue of USD 298.52 million, gross profit margin of 74.22%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD -66.50 million with a net profit margin of -22.28%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.13, with year-over-year adjusted EPS growth of 30.00%. A key highlight was better-than-expected profitability as EBIT reached USD 29.07 million, above forecasts, supported by disciplined expense control and healthy gross margin. The main business was dominated by subscription revenue of USD 286.34 million, while services contributed USD 12.19 million; subscription maintained the growth engine, with continued enterprise adoption driving expansion.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Subscription Platform

The subscription engine is poised to remain the primary driver, given the company’s focus on expanding its cloud-native data streaming platform across large enterprises. The prior quarter’s gross profit margin of 74.22% demonstrates structural pricing power and delivery efficiency that can support EBIT expansion if operating expenses remain contained. With forecast revenue at USD 308.06 million and EPS at USD 0.10, the key watchpoint is the pace of large-deal execution and net expansion in existing accounts, which can sustain double-digit top-line growth while gradually improving margin trajectory. A balanced mix of new logo wins and expansions among high-spend customers is likely to dictate the extent of operating leverage this quarter. If renewal activity and cloud usage trends remain favorable, EBIT leverage could track the forecast improvement and underpin positive variance to EPS consensus. Conversely, any slippage in large enterprise deal timing could defer revenue recognition and temper the quarter’s profitability cadence, though the contracted nature of subscription often provides resilience across short intervals.

Cloud-Delivered Data Streaming

Cloud-delivered data streaming remains the most promising business vector, with the subscription base of USD 286.34 million last quarter underscoring steady adoption of managed services. The scalability of the cloud offering supports consistent growth in consumption and upsell, which can provide a structural lift to annual recurring revenue over time. This quarter, watch for signals on cloud migration velocity among legacy on-prem deployments and the contribution of usage-based elements that can enhance dollar-based net retention. If the company sustains healthy adoption from digital-native and modernizing enterprise customers, the revenue mix should continue to tilt toward cloud services with improved unit economics. The degree of usage elasticity across macro cycles remains a factor; even modest macro headwinds could temper usage spikes, but steady enterprise modernization initiatives often buffer near-term volatility. Product differentiation in developer experience and data governance across clouds can be a key driver of competitive wins, helping the company capture higher-value workloads with better long-term monetization.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

The stock’s reaction is likely to be most influenced by guidance quality, particularly management’s commentary on revenue growth durability and margin expansion into the next fiscal year. Investors will focus on gross profit margin stability near the mid-70.00% range and the path toward sustained positive operating income as scale builds. Commentary around large-deal momentum, expansion rates in top-tier customers, and pipeline conversion in the back half of the fiscal year will shape sentiment. Any update on product roadmap velocity, including enhancements that reduce deployment friction and improve observability, may also influence expectations for long-term expansion in high-value workloads. On the cost side, discipline in sales efficiency and R&D allocation will be important to reconcile forecast EBIT of USD 22.40 million with the adjusted EPS consensus of USD 0.10. Finally, clarity on usage-based revenue trends and cohort retention can either reinforce the bullish case for continued compounded growth or introduce caution if macro normalization slows consumption growth.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional commentary, the balance of opinion leans bullish, with the majority pointing to sustained double-digit revenue growth, improving operating leverage, and stable mid-70.00% gross margins as the underpinning of the near-term setup. Well-known brokers emphasize continued traction in enterprise data streaming modernization and a healthy pipeline of expansion opportunities, arguing that the transition toward higher cloud mix supports better predictability and steadily improving profitability. Several previews highlight that last quarter’s outperformance on EBIT and adjusted EPS sets a constructive baseline, and that the current quarter’s revenue forecast of USD 308.06 million is achievable if large-deal timing remains on track and usage trends are steady. The dominant view expects guidance to reinforce an improved operating framework, with particular attention to any commentary on dollar-based net retention and progress in large-account expansions, both of which are seen as catalysts for multiple support.