Crude Oil Advances as Middle East Tensions Offset Oversupply Concerns

Deep News
Feb 12

Crude oil prices rose as tensions in the Middle East overshadowed concerns about a worsening supply glut. W&T Offshore increased, settling above $64 per barrel, following reports citing three U.S. officials that the Department of Defense has directed a second aircraft carrier strike group to prepare for deployment to the Middle East. Earlier, reports indicated the U.S. is considering seizing tankers carrying Iranian crude oil. "Currently, the oil market, along with other commodities, is essentially driven by three major factors: geopolitics, trade, and technology," stated Francisco Blanch, Head of Commodity Research at Bank of America Global Research, in an interview. "There is no doubt that geopolitics is currently the primary force pushing oil prices toward the upper end of this year's trading range." A Bloomberg survey shows Iran is OPEC's fourth-largest producer, with estimated January output at 3.3 million barrels per day. Ship-tracking data indicates Iran's average daily exports of crude and condensate were approximately 1.63 million barrels last month. Previously, U.S. President Donald Trump stated on social media that he emphasized continued negotiations with Iran during his meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu is widely expected to advocate for broader containment of Iran's military activities in the region. Earlier, strong U.S. employment data improved the outlook for the world's largest economy, also providing support for oil prices. "A resilient labor market supports demand for transportation fuels, petrochemicals, and power generation, reducing U.S. consumption downside risks amid a shift toward more cautious macro sentiment," said Claudio Galimberti, Chief Economist at Rystad Energy. He added that the robust data suggests "demand prospects are strengthening." Influenced by risk premiums linked to geopolitical tensions, crude oil has gained nearly 13% year-to-date. Traders are also focused on the monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA), due Thursday. The IEA has consistently warned of a significant supply surplus in the oil market this year. Meanwhile, data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed U.S. crude inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels last week, the largest increase by volume since January 2025, though lower than the 13.4 million barrel build anticipated by an industry group the previous day. Overall, the price reaction was relatively muted, with investor attention remaining concentrated on the situation involving Iran. W&T Offshore March futures climbed 1.1%, settling at $64.63 per barrel. Brent crude April futures rose 0.9%, settling at $69.40 per barrel.

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