Abstract

Xeris Pharmaceuticals Inc will report its quarterly results on March 02, 2026 Pre-Market, with investors watching revenue, gross margin, net profit, and adjusted EPS inflection.

Market Forecast

Consensus projections for the current quarter point to total revenue of $82.34 million, an adjusted EPS of $0.04, and EBIT of $10.06 million, with year-over-year growth rates of 41.71%, 169.48%, and 405.39%, respectively. The company is expected to deliver a stable-to-expanding gross profit margin and a constructive net profit trajectory compared with the prior-year quarter, while adjusted EPS benefits from operating leverage in the model. Main business momentum is projected to be led by product sales, supported by consistent demand in core endocrinology and emergency care franchises and aided by expanding commercial coverage. The most promising segment remains product sales, which contributed $74.06 million last quarter, reflecting sustained double-digit year-over-year growth, while licensing and other revenues are expected to stay minimal.

Last Quarter Review

Xeris Pharmaceuticals Inc recorded revenue of $74.38 million in the last reported quarter, a gross profit margin of 85.22%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.62 million, a net profit margin of 0.83%, and adjusted EPS of $0.00, with revenue growing 37.06% year over year. A key highlight was continued operating efficiency as the company posted sequential improvement in profitability while expanding revenue against prior year comparables. Main business performance was led by product sales at $74.06 million, while licensing and other revenue contributed $0.32 million, underscoring the centrality of the commercial portfolio.

Current Quarter Outlook

Main business: Commercial product sales

Product sales are expected to remain the core revenue engine this quarter, anchored by continuing demand across the company’s marketed therapies. With the preceding quarter’s product sales at $74.06 million, the forecast for total revenue at $82.34 million implies ongoing volume and price mix support. The high gross margin profile at 85.22% last quarter suggests the company can maintain healthy contribution margins even as it invests in commercial expansion. If sales execution remains tight, adjusted EPS at $0.04 can be achieved through fixed-cost absorption and efficiency gains, despite the seasonal dynamics that sometimes affect prescription trends.

Pricing and payer coverage will be important swing factors for product sales performance. Improved formulary access and broader distribution can unlock incremental volumes without proportionally raising cost of goods sold, preserving gross margins. Conversely, any adverse reimbursement decisions or competitive encroachment could dampen volumes and push promotional spend higher, putting pressure on operating margins. Monitoring prescription data, refill rates, and channel inventory will help gauge whether the topline trajectory supports the EBIT forecast of $10.06 million.

The year-over-year growth rates embedded in the revenue estimate (41.71%) indicate a favorable comparison period and momentum in the commercial book. The sustainability of such growth will depend on the balance between market penetration and competitive dynamics. Strategically, continued investment in sales force productivity and targeted physician education should underpin product adoption, with operational leverage flowing through to adjusted EPS.

Most promising business: Scaling the commercial portfolio

The company’s most promising engine of growth remains the commercial product portfolio, given the outsized contribution of product sales and the high attachment of gross margin. Last quarter’s $74.06 million in product revenue sets a strong base from which to grow, and the trajectory implied by the $82.34 million total revenue forecast points to a solid sequential increase in commercial throughput. With licensing and other revenue contributing just $0.32 million, the focus is squarely on expanding the market for existing therapies rather than leaning on one-time or low-margin streams.

Operational leverage is the principal driver of earnings upside in this segment. As volumes scale, fixed costs such as SG&A should represent a smaller percentage of revenue, supporting the EBIT forecast and the projected adjusted EPS of $0.04. The margin structure observed last quarter, with an 85.22% gross margin, provides room to absorb promotional and medical education activities while maintaining a path to profit expansion. Risks include potential pricing pressure or competitive launches that could compress the growth rate, but the current estimates still envision notable year-over-year expansion.

Future growth also depends on geographic and payer coverage broadening. Enhanced contracting with major payers, coupled with sustained patient adherence programs, can translate to more stable demand curves. Incremental wholesale orders should be weighed against end-market prescription data to ensure channel health, since overstocking could mask real demand and create volatility in future quarters. The supportive mix of revenue and margins makes this the segment with the highest probability of meeting or exceeding near-term guidance.

Stock price drivers this quarter

Stock performance will likely be most sensitive to the interaction of revenue growth and margin trends versus expectations. The market is attuned to whether total revenue can meet the $82.34 million forecast while sustaining gross margin around the mid-80% range; any deviation could recalibrate EPS assumptions quickly. The EBIT estimate at $10.06 million implies meaningful operating leverage; if reported EBIT falls short, investors may infer higher-than-expected opex or slower demand conversion, both of which could weigh on the shares.

Adjusted EPS is another focal point. The move from breakeven last quarter to an estimated $0.04 this quarter signals an inflection supported by scale and expense discipline. Delivery against this benchmark will hinge on tight control of SG&A, efficient sampling and patient support programs, and rate of prescription growth. The net profit margin, which was 0.83% last quarter, would need to expand to corroborate the implied earnings progression; incremental gains here will validate the thesis that the company is entering a period of improving profitability.

Investors will also parse any qualitative disclosures regarding payer coverage, channel inventory, and competitive developments. Management commentary signaling durable demand and favorable access can reinforce the EBIT and EPS outlook. Conversely, cautionary language about promotional intensity, reimbursement appeals, or channel corrections might lead to near-term estimate revisions. The setup into the print is therefore balanced on execution in the core commercial franchise and disciplined cost management.

Analyst Opinions

Bullish views dominate recent commentary, emphasizing the company’s improving revenue scale and operating leverage as key supports for the projected uptick in EBIT and adjusted EPS. Institutional analysts point to the prior quarter’s 37.06% year-over-year revenue increase and a robust 85.22% gross margin as anchors for confidence in the $82.34 million revenue forecast and the $10.06 million EBIT projection. The constructive camp argues that the runway for commercial product sales, combined with disciplined expense control, should allow adjusted EPS to reach the estimated $0.04, validating the thesis of a profitability inflection.

Supportive assessments highlight consistent prescription trends and expanding payer coverage as the backbone of revenue momentum. These views also stress that licensing and other revenue remains small, reinforcing the reliance on the core commercial portfolio to deliver results. The majority outlook assesses risk as manageable, centered on competition and pricing rather than structural demand erosion, and expects management to guide toward sustained margin quality in upcoming commentary. Should the company meet or slightly exceed revenue and EBIT expectations, analysts anticipate revisions focused on EBIT-to-EPS conversion efficiency rather than top-line surprises, underpinning a constructive stance into the event.