Uranium futures prices surged to $98 per pound as of January 28, 2026, marking a significant 29% increase from December 24, 2025. On the supply side, constrained capital expenditures and the unsustainable nature of mining operations at Kazatomprom have led to a tense supply situation for natural uranium; the Kazakh national uranium mining company has announced plans to cut its uranium production by approximately 10% in 2026. On the demand side, heightened global emphasis on energy security is expected to drive sustained growth in nuclear power demand, with China positioned as a primary source of future global nuclear power expansion. Investors are advised to monitor China Uranium Corporation (001280.SZ) and CGN Mining Company Limited (01164).
The recent uptick in uranium prices is primarily attributed to robust demand fundamentals. Firstly, on January 20, the physical uranium trust SPUT filed a preliminary short-form prospectus, outlining its intention to issue up to $2 billion in transferable, non-redeemable trust units over an unspecified period within 25 months. Secondly, on January 21, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO) restarted reactor 6 at the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant, which stands as Japan's largest nuclear facility.
Global natural uranium production is characterized by a high degree of concentration. According to data from the OECD-NEA and IAEA as of January 2021, Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, Russia, and Namibia held uranium resource reserves accounting for 28%, 13%, 10%, 8%, and 8% of the world's total, respectively, with the top three nations collectively representing over 50%. World Nuclear Association (WNA) data for 2022 further indicates that the leading uranium-producing countries were Kazakhstan, Canada, and Namibia, with outputs of 21,227 tU, 7,351 tU, and 5,613 tU, constituting 43.01%, 14.89%, and 11.37% of global natural uranium production; these three nations together accounted for nearly 70% of the world's supply.
A continued tight supply of natural uranium is anticipated in the foreseeable future. Kazakhstan, possessing only 13% of global resource reserves, supplies a disproportionate 43% of uranium mine output, indicating that its resource extraction is unsustainable. Kazatomprom, the state-owned uranium mining company and the world's largest uranium producer, announced in September 2025 its plan to reduce uranium output by about 10% in 2026.
The world's two largest uranium-consuming nations, the United States and China, both have relatively low shares of global production. WNA data shows that global reactor demand for natural uranium reached 67,500 tU in 2024, an 8.00% increase from 62,500 tU in 2021. The United States led with a demand of 18,100 tU, accounting for 26.86% of the global total, while China followed with a demand of 13,100 tU, representing 19.45%. Conversely, the uranium production shares of China and the US are minimal, at 2.7% and 0.4% of global output in 2024, respectively.
China is poised to be the main driver of future nuclear power demand growth. Projections from the IEA, under a high-case scenario, suggest that global operational nuclear power capacity could reach 2.6 times the 2024 level by 2050. According to the "China Nuclear Energy Development Report (2025)", China's installed nuclear power capacity in operation is expected to become the world's largest by 2030. Furthermore, the Chinese Nuclear Society forecasts that nuclear power will constitute 10% of China's power generation mix by 2035.
The United States' pursuit of an expanded strategic uranium reserve may exert further upward pressure on uranium prices. In September 2025, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the US should consider enlarging its strategic uranium reserve to reduce dependence on Russian supplies and bolster confidence in the long-term prospects of nuclear power. The concept of a US uranium reserve was initially proposed during the first Trump administration in 2020, which sought $150 million to purchase uranium directly from domestic producers; although Congress ultimately approved only half the funding, the plan has subsequently received support from the Biden administration.
Potential risks include uranium exploration progress exceeding expectations, nuclear power grid integration proceeding slower than anticipated, nuclear power demand falling short of forecasts, and various geopolitical risks.