March 3: In the previous trading session on Monday (March 2), international gold opened higher and then fluctuated before closing. Chart patterns suggest some expectations of a pullback from the rebound peak for the week, with attention on further corrective declines. However, the price remains above its short-term moving averages, with Bollinger Bands and technical indicators still signaling strength. Fundamentally, while profit-taking and a U.S. appellate court's rejection of the Trump administration's request to delay tariff refunds pressured gold prices lower, escalating geopolitical tensions are providing support. The U.S.-Iran conflict has further spread to Lebanon with no signs of easing. Former President Trump indicated that a "real wave of strikes is coming soon," which is likely to heighten risk-averse sentiment. Therefore, any pullback to key support levels should be viewed as an opportunity to establish long positions.
In specific price action, gold opened the Asian session higher at $5,371.65 per ounce, adjusted slightly, then strengthened to reach an intraday high of $5,418.49 towards the end of the Asian session. During the U.S. session, the price experienced a sharp decline, hitting an intraday low of $5,260.26 around midnight, thereby filling the opening gap. It subsequently staged a rebound from the lows, finally closing at $5,321.51. The daily trading range was $158.23. Compared to Friday's close of $5,277.15, gold settled up $44.36, a gain of 0.84%.
Looking ahead to Tuesday (March 3), international gold opened by extending the rebound momentum from the previous session's late recovery. A pause in the U.S. dollar's rebound also provided early support. However, encountering near-term resistance limited the early upside momentum. Nevertheless, with the U.S. dollar facing resistance and gold prices holding above bullish support levels, any subsequent pullback is expected to maintain a consolidative upward trend. The strategy remains to buy on dips near support.
Today's focus will be on speeches from permanent FOMC voter and New York Fed President John Williams, as well as 2028 FOMC voter and Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid, who will speak on monetary policy and the economic outlook. Given their previously hawkish tones, the U.S. session may again face downside risks. However, such dips are still anticipated to present buying opportunities.
Fundamentally, geopolitical tensions have been a persistent, long-term uncertainty for decades. Temporary easing is unlikely to alter the underlying trend; instead, such tensions act as stepping stones propelling gold prices higher.
Currently, according to a CNN report citing a senior U.S. official, the United States is preparing for a "massive attack" on Iran within the next 24 hours. Furthermore, former President Trump stated that a "real wave of strikes is coming soon." This keeps market避险 concerns elevated. Therefore, from a short-term perspective, any technical correction in gold prices is seen as a fresh starting point for advances, supported by positive fundamentals.
Additionally, markets still expect the Federal Reserve to implement two interest rate cuts this year. The U.S. Trade Representative indicated that tariff rates on certain countries would increase from 10% to 15% or higher. The repricing of inflation and growth expectations due to the tariff path is far from over.
Consequently, overall, gold's bull market prospects remain intact. The current sideways consolidation appears more like a period of accumulating energy, awaiting the next catalyst. Gold still has the potential to challenge levels above $6,000.
Technically, on the monthly chart, after February's decline following January's bearish shooting star pattern, gold found support at the breached ascending trendline (now support) from the start of the year and rebounded. It remains within a new bull market space and above its 5-month moving average, suggesting the bearish correction from January has been exhausted. The fresh bullish outlook remains valid, with prices expected to strengthen further from this trend support to reach new highs.
On the weekly chart, gold continued its strength last week, holding firmly above the 5 and 10-week moving averages. Bollinger Bands are expanding upward, and auxiliary indicators maintain their bullish signals, painting an optimistic outlook for bulls. If gold can sustain above the $5,300 level through the first half of the month, it could potentially retest its historical highs and set new records.
On the daily chart, gold closed with a doji pattern yesterday. The ZZ indicator also suggests the rebound may be peaking, hinting at a potential top. However, the underlying moving averages provide support in a bullish alignment, and the overall trend and auxiliary indicators still lean towards strength. Thus, any pullback should be watched for support near the 5 and 10-day moving averages, representing entry points for long positions.
For specific real-time trading guidance, please refer to live account information.
Preliminary intraday trading level references are provided below. Exact entry and exit points should be confirmed via real-time account notifications: Gold: Support levels to watch are around $5,300 or $5,250; Resistance levels are around $5,360 or $5,405. Silver: Support levels to watch are around $87.20 or $84.10; Resistance levels are around $93.75 or $96.10.