Abstract

Black Stone Minerals LP will report results on February 23, 2026 Post Market; our preview synthesizes company disclosures and consensus forecasts pointing to softer revenue and EPS alongside stable cash generation and hedging support, with investor expectations anchored to disciplined distributions and commodity price realizations.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the quarter to be reported centers on revenue of $101.14 million, implying a 8.74% year-over-year decline, with EBIT expected at $62.82 million, down 19.09% year-over-year, and adjusted EPS near $0.26, down 28.18% year-over-year; the company has not provided quantitative guidance for gross profit margin or net profit margin for this quarter. Management’s core revenue engine remains tied to hydrocarbons and risk-managed through commodity derivatives, with the forecast implying tighter realized pricing and lower operating income versus the year-ago period amid a cautious outlook on price-linked receipts. The strongest revenue contributor within the company’s mix last quarter was oil and condensate at $57.09 million, while natural gas and NGLs delivered $43.09 million; among these, oil and condensate appears best positioned for incremental upside given its larger revenue base and leverage to realized prices, though segment-specific year-over-year comparisons were not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Black Stone Minerals LP delivered revenue of $105.18 million, an 1.94% year-over-year increase, with a reported gross profit margin of 86.34%, GAAP net income attributable to the parent of $91.73 million, a net profit margin of 91.57%, and adjusted EPS of $0.40, which declined 2.44% year-over-year. A notable highlight was operating performance outpacing internal and market expectations as EBIT of $94.10 million exceeded the pre-quarter estimate by $28.49 million, supported by favorable realized pricing and effective cost discipline. By business line, oil and condensate contributed $57.09 million, natural gas and NGLs $43.09 million, commodity derivatives $27.29 million, and lease bonus and other $5.01 million, underscoring a revenue stack driven by core hydrocarbons with meaningful hedging contributions; year-over-year changes by line were not disclosed.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Royalty and Production-Linked Revenue

The latest forecast implies revenue of $101.14 million, which points to a 8.74% decline from the year-ago quarter. This moderation is consistent with a normalized pricing environment and a cautious stance on production-linked receipts heading into the reporting date, with estimated EBIT of $62.82 million suggesting compressed operating leverage versus last year. Adjusted EPS forecast at $0.26 reflects the dual impact of price realizations and the scale of derivative settlements in the period, along with fewer nonrecurring tailwinds than were present in comparable periods. Management’s mix effects matter for this print: last quarter’s composition showed approximately 43.10% of revenues from oil and condensate and 32.53% from natural gas and NGLs, with the balance from commodity derivatives and lease-related items, a split that typically leads to pronounced sensitivity to spot and strip prices as well as to any volumetric variances from operator activity on the acreage. Investors should expect revenue cadence to mirror realized prices for oil and gas during the quarter and the extent to which derivative gains offset commodity softness; the forecast decline in EBIT year-over-year aligns with an environment where price support is present but less robust than last year.

Most Promising Revenue Contributor: Oil and Condensate

Oil and condensate represented the largest single revenue line in the last reported quarter at $57.09 million, making it the most scalable driver for absolute dollar contribution this quarter. Within the forecast framework, small changes in realized oil pricing could disproportionately influence total revenue and EBIT given the segment’s size; while the company does not disclose quarter-ahead gross margin targets by line, the consolidated gross margin profile has historically remained resilient due to the nature of royalty interests and low operating cost load. The yoy compression anticipated by consensus indicates that even with a constructive backdrop for liquids on a sequential basis, year-ago comparisons set a higher bar for year-over-year growth, particularly if volumes or realized differentials track closer to plan than to upside scenarios. As a result, the base expectation is that the oil and condensate line maintains primacy within the mix while contributing to a year-over-year revenue contraction when measured across the whole portfolio. The key swing factor remains realized liquids pricing and any mix shifts toward higher-value condensate volumes on the underlying acreage base.

Natural Gas and NGLs: Watch List for Sequential Moves

Natural gas and NGLs delivered $43.09 million last quarter and remain an important complement to liquids, especially when gas price volatility and winter-seasonal dynamics can alter realized revenues. For this print, consensus signals that aggregate revenue and EBIT will decline year-over-year, implicitly reflecting gas price scenarios that are supportive but not at the prior year’s highs; those levels can still underpin cash generation if hedges clip some of the downside and operator activity sustains volumes. In practical terms, the sequential shape of gas pricing into the quarter may introduce moderate variability around the revenue estimate, but the year-over-year line looks challenged by base-effect comparisons. If gas spot and strip prices into late quarter were softer than last year, the magnitude of derivative settlements becomes crucial; a higher contribution from commodity derivatives would mitigate topline softness in gas receipts while potentially modulating EPS due to non-cash components and timing of hedge settlements.

Commodity Derivatives and Lease Activity: Stabilizers and Wildcards

Commodity derivatives contributed $27.29 million in the prior quarter, reinforcing the portfolio’s risk-managed profile. In the current setup, consensus EBIT and EPS declines year-over-year suggest hedging benefits that likely persist but at a reduced net uplift versus last year’s backdrop, where higher volatility could have amplified derivative gains. Two offsetting forces are in play: if spot realizations underperform, derivative settlements can cushion cash flows; if spot realizations outperform hedges, mark-to-market effects may cap upside while underlying royalty receipts improve. Lease bonus and other income at $5.01 million last quarter underscored an inherently lumpy line item that may add opportunistic upside if new mineral leases are executed or if timing of payments clusters in the reported quarter; however, the forecast profile does not appear to embed a material step-up from this source. For EPS, the combination of normalized hedging uplift and limited lease-related surprises sets a cautious baseline consistent with the forecast 28.18% year-over-year contraction.

Key Stock Price Drivers into the Print

Three elements are most likely to dictate the share move around the release: realized commodity prices versus hedge positions, the shape of cash distributions, and any updates on operator activity that affect near-term volumetric trajectory. The revenue and EBIT forecasts imply that investors are primed for a conservative outcome; positive surprise potential could come from better-than-expected price realizations in liquids or a higher-than-anticipated derivative contribution. Conversely, if realized prices skew below the hedge book’s effective protections or if derivative settlements are smaller than assumed, EBIT could underwhelm relative to consensus, lifting the importance of cash distribution commentary to maintain investor confidence. The sensitivity of the stock to distribution policy is nontrivial because stable or rising distributions can offset short-term topline softness; clarity on payout trajectory will therefore be a central qualitative driver even as the quantitative results are benchmarked to the $101.14 million revenue and $0.26 EPS baselines. Finally, any commentary indicating stronger operator plans on key acreage would sharpen visibility into the next few quarters, potentially recalibrating expectations faster than hedge dynamics alone.

Analyst Opinions

In the January 1, 2026 to February 16, 2026 window, there were no widely disseminated new preview reports or rating changes from major brokerages specifically addressing Black Stone Minerals LP’s upcoming quarter; in the absence of fresh revisions, the prevailing stance is best characterized as Neutral, aligning with the consensus forecast that embeds year-over-year declines in revenue and EPS without implying a deteriorating cash profile. The majority view leans toward a cautious, wait-and-see posture rather than a directional call, emphasizing near-term sensitivity to commodity pricing and hedging outcomes around the $101.14 million revenue and $0.26 EPS anchors. This neutral consensus is consistent with the projected 19.09% year-over-year EBIT compression, which sets expectations at a level where upside depends on realized prices and derivative settlements, and downside risk centers on weaker-than-expected price realizations or limited lease-related uplifts.

Under this majority-neutral framework, analysts’ core questions converge on the durability of cash distributions and the trajectory of realized pricing versus the hedge book in the quarter and beyond. A constructive read-through would point to continued strong gross margins and effective risk management keeping cash flows resilient despite a softer top line. A more guarded read-through would highlight that the current forecast already anticipates year-over-year pressure, and absent a favorable price mix or lease bonus tailwinds, the risk-reward remains balanced heading into the print. Overall, consensus signals that results are likely to be in line with conservative expectations unless commodity price realizations surprise to the upside, leaving the post-release guidance on distributions and any operator-activity commentary as potential catalysts for sentiment recalibration.