Weekly Closing Analysis: Gold Price Direction Forecast and Trading Recommendations for Gold and Oil

Deep News
Sep 19

September 19th, Real-time Gold Market Analysis: As we approach Friday's close, gold has shown a pattern since Wednesday where daily highs continue to decline. Today, we can reference the previously mentioned 3670-3675 range for shorting opportunities. If prices break above this rebound level tonight, the short-term downward trend may change again, requiring adjustments during live trading.

From a technical perspective, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands lower rail is moving upward, converging with the 4-hour parallel channel lower rail at the 3630 level. This week's low was at 3625, establishing today's key support range for bullish-bearish conversion. Looking at the 1-hour timeframe, the upper rail is at 3670 and lower rail at 3628, with Bollinger Bands indicators showing parallel development. Under normal circumstances, this suggests a range-bound strategy of selling high and buying low within the 3670-3630 area.

For today's resistance levels, focus on the 8-hour trendline pressure point at 3663, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands middle rail declining to 3668, and the 4-hour parallel channel middle rail at 3673, which coincides with yesterday's high. These represent short-term visible resistance nodes. Upon upward breakout, watch for successive resistance at 3686, 3700, and the historical high of 3707.

For support levels, monitor the 3630-3625 support range. A downward break would transform the weekly candlestick into an extremely long lower shadow bearish candle. Should this occur, breaking below this week's low would likely accelerate the decline, with further support at 3615 and 3600.

Overall, gold is expected to trade within the 3630-3670 range in broad consolidation. Future price movements breaking these levels should reference the aforementioned support and resistance for corresponding position building. Yesterday's gold price decline to the 3627 level completed the daily SAR indicator's top-bottom conversion, appearing at the top with downward divergence. My personal assessment is that gold will continue declining after high-level consolidation in late September, potentially reaching 3600 or even 3500. Today's strategy emphasizes shorting on rebounds as primary approach, with low-level buying as secondary.

Gold Strategy: Current price around 3652. 1. Asian session short positions at 3658-3660 area, no stop-loss mentioned, target 3650-3640; 2. Long positions when touching 3635-3630 area, stop-loss at 3624, target 3650-3660; 3. Alternative strategy: Break below 3625 for additional shorts targeting 3615-3605; high-level short orders at 3695 and 3705, stop-loss at 3715, target 3660-3630+

Real-time Oil Market Analysis: Oil's decline perfectly aligns with my expectations. As of Friday 2 PM, the 4-hour chart shows five consecutive bearish candles, with three consecutive daily bearish candles. Daily prices have fallen below the Bollinger Bands middle rail, making short-term trend reversal unlikely and suggesting continued downward movement. However, this doesn't conflict with my wave-based bullish outlook, as declines present excellent entry opportunities.

Technically, the 4-hour Bollinger Bands lower rail stands at 62.7, with this week's low at 62.5. Failure to break below substantially would likely trigger an upward move. Downward breakout would focus on the daily SAR indicator at 61.7 and the Fibonacci 23.6% level at 61.1.

Today's resistance levels include the 4-hour SAR indicator pressure point at 64.2 and this week's high at 64.7. Further upward breakthrough would target 65.5 and 66.1. Overall, oil's moderate consolidation range spans 64.7-62.5. My approach remains unchanged: seizing low-level opportunities for long positions with bullish outlook. Short-term operations should focus on range-bound high-selling, low-buying strategies.

Oil Strategy: Current price around 63.3. 1. Long positions on pullback to 62.7-62.5 area, stop-loss at 62, target 63.8-64.7, hold on breakout; 2. Staged long orders at 61.7, 61.1, and 60.5, stop-loss below 59.8, targets at 63-65-66, reduce positions on breakout;

Disclaimer: Investing carries risk. This is not financial advice. The above content should not be regarded as an offer, recommendation, or solicitation on acquiring or disposing of any financial products, any associated discussions, comments, or posts by author or other users should not be considered as such either. It is solely for general information purpose only, which does not consider your own investment objectives, financial situations or needs. TTM assumes no responsibility or warranty for the accuracy and completeness of the information, investors should do their own research and may seek professional advice before investing.

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