Abstract
Propetro Holding Corp. will report fourth-quarter results on February 18, 2026 Pre-Market; investors will watch whether revenue tracks the current-quarter estimate near $274.95 million and if margin trends, net income trajectory, and adjusted EPS align with forecasts while management updates the power-generation expansion.Market Forecast
Based on the latest quarter-on-quarter forecasting framework, the current-quarter outlook points to revenue of $274.95 million, implying a 14.55% year-over-year decline, and adjusted EPS of -$0.12, implying a year-over-year change of -1,284.09%; EBIT is projected at -$13.75 million, down 435.25% year over year. Formal guidance for gross profit margin and net profit margin has not been issued; the setup suggests a quarter centered on utilization, pricing mix, and cost capture, with investors focusing on how these elements translate to EPS relative to the loss implied by current models.Hydraulic fracturing remains the core revenue engine and is expected to anchor overall performance through the scale and predictability of integrated completion services, with the company’s near-term focus on utilization discipline, pricing mix, and operating cost stability to influence reported profitability. The most promising segment, PROPWR (power generation), posted $0.16 million of revenue last quarter from an early-stage monetization base and is positioned for accelerated contribution as additional megawatts are contracted and deployed through 2026.
Last Quarter Review
In the last reported quarter, Propetro Holding Corp. delivered revenue of $293.92 million (-18.55% year over year), a gross profit margin of 19.53%, a GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $-2.37 million (net profit margin -0.80%), and adjusted EPS of -$0.02 (-115.38% year over year). On a quarter-over-quarter basis, net profit improved by 66.95%, reflecting sequential operational stabilization despite a difficult year-over-year comparison embedded in EPS and EBIT.A key financial highlight was the top-line outperformance versus the last published estimate: revenue surpassed the prior estimate by $20.24 million, a 7.39% positive surprise, while EPS outperformed its estimate by $0.10. Main business mix remained concentrated in hydraulic fracturing, which generated $210.19 million; wireline services contributed $52.17 million, cementing contributed $31.64 million, and power generation recorded $0.16 million, with a small offset from intersegment eliminations of $0.24 million.
Current Quarter Outlook
Hydraulic fracturing: execution, pricing mix, and utilization discipline
Hydraulic fracturing remains the company’s principal revenue driver and operational fulcrum, and it is likely to define how fourth-quarter revenue and margins track relative to expectations. The last quarter’s gross profit margin of 19.53% establishes a reference point; investors will parse whether cost containment and labor efficiencies sustain or improve this profile as fleets rotate and activity cadence normalizes into the year-end period captured by the quarter. Pricing for completion services—especially on higher-spec fleets—can influence the margin outcome materially; a more favorable mix on high-intensity jobs typically yields better cost absorption, while any short-term scheduling gaps could weigh on the realized margin.The quarter’s profitability sensitivity hinges on continuity of crew assignments and the consistency of stage counts across customer programs already underway at quarter end. The company’s sequential improvement in net profit suggests stabilizing operating execution; the question now is whether that trend persists when mapped to the projected revenue step-down implied by the $274.95 million estimate. Any commentary on realized job pricing adjustments, consumables and repair-and-maintenance cycle timing, and traction on lowering energy and logistics costs will be critical for interpreting the durability of gross margins. While the current models imply a return to a quarterly net loss, moderation of loss magnitude relative to the forecast—through better-than-modeled utilization—would be viewed constructively.
PROPWR (power generation): early monetization, capacity additions, and earnings bridge
The PROPWR initiative is transitioning from formative deployment to early monetization, with last quarter’s reported $0.16 million of revenue signaling initial commercial activity. The company’s recent capital actions, including the January 2026 equity raise, directly support incremental power-generation equipment purchases, which points to an intent to accelerate capacity additions in the near term. As additional megawatts are contracted and deployed, the contribution from PROPWR has the potential to create a new earnings bridge outside the core services cycle, particularly if realized EBITDA per megawatt trends toward the externally discussed benchmarks used by covering analysts.Momentum in this segment will depend on visible milestones: signed agreements for megawatt capacity, deployment schedules aligned with customer timetables, and evidence that equipment turns to revenue on a predictable timeline. Because last quarter’s revenue was small and the prior-year baseline appears minimal, year-over-year growth rates can become mechanically large and less meaningful; what matters most this quarter is proof of scalable unit economics and contract visibility that underpins a multi-quarter revenue ramp. Investors will listen for disclosures on contracted megawatts, expected in-service dates, and initial run-rate profitability, as these datapoints can help translate capacity targets into a clearer 2026 earnings framework.
Stock-price drivers this quarter: EPS vs. model, margin signals, and capital deployment updates
Into the print, the most direct stock-price catalyst is whether reported EPS deviates from the current -$0.12 per-share expectation and whether the EBIT loss of about -$13.75 million narrows more than forecast. A smaller-than-expected loss would signal better operating leverage and potentially reflect stronger utilization, favorable job mix, or incremental cost efficiencies. The second driver is margin commentary—qualitative and quantitative—around realized gross margin within the quarter’s operations: clarity on daily fleet activity, maintenance timing, and any pricing resets may materially change investors’ near-term margin expectations.A third driver is the update on PROPWR deployment and capital allocation following the January offering. On January 27, 2026, the company priced an upsized 15.00 million share offering at $10.00 per share, including a 30-day option for up to 2.25 million additional shares, explicitly earmarking proceeds for additional power generation equipment and general corporate purposes. Combined with indications in a February 10, 2026 current report filing, investors will expect a more granular outline of capital commitments, expected commissioning timelines, and customer agreements underpinning the rollout. Any improvement in visibility on contracted megawatts and expected EBITDA run-rate could influence how the market values the medium-term earnings contribution from PROPWR relative to the core services business.
Finally, the balance of potential one-off factors, such as non-cash items, working-capital swings, or timing effects in receivables and payables, may influence cash flow perception even if they do not alter the structural earnings path. Because the forecast embeds a year-over-year revenue decline of 14.55% and a larger year-over-year deterioration implied in EPS and EBIT, upside versus those modeled declines—particularly if tied to identifiable operating drivers—could be disproportionately rewarded.
Analyst Opinions
The majority view in recent commentary is bullish, with a positive rating action outweighing neutral stances and no newly published bearish calls in the period reviewed. J.P. Morgan upgraded Propetro Holding Corp. to Overweight and lifted its price target, explicitly citing the growth path for the PROPWR segment. In discussing valuation, the firm gave credit for 500 megawatts of capacity, translating this to roughly $135.00 million of annualized EBITDA by the fourth quarter of 2027 based on a ~$275,000 EBITDA-per-megawatt assumption, and framed this capacity build-out as a meaningful earnings diversifier beyond core service activity. Against the current-quarter setup—revenue modeled at $274.95 million (-14.55% year over year), adjusted EPS at -$0.12 (-1,284.09% year over year), and EBIT at -$13.75 million (-435.25% year over year)—the upgrade implies that investors should look through near-term cyclicality and focus on the monetization trajectory of the power platform.From a near-term validation standpoint, the elements most likely to reinforce this bullish thesis within the forthcoming report include: incremental disclosures on contracted megawatts and the pace of equipment procurement funded by the January equity raise; initial evidence of repeatable, scale-capable unit economics as equipment is deployed; and any signs that the company’s integrated offering can capture incremental value through coordinated scheduling between power and hydraulic fracturing services. A clear linkage between capital deployed and revenue recognized—supported by contracted offtake or customer commitments—would add credibility to the multi-year earnings bridge described by the upgrade.
Weighing investor reaction, a positive surprise on fourth-quarter EPS or EBIT relative to currently modeled losses would help alleviate concerns that the company could be entering a prolonged trough. Yet the larger swing factor for sentiment may be qualitative: the degree of specificity around the 2026 build schedule, expected commissioning windows, and the commercial framework governing power services. If management can provide concrete milestones—such as megawatts under contract, expected in-service dates, and the cadence of revenue recognition—the market will be better positioned to underwrite a scaled, multi-quarter contribution from PROPWR. Within this framing, the bullish view anticipates that the company’s capital deployment and early execution steps can translate into a measurable—and increasingly visible—earnings addition that complements the core services franchise.
In sum, the prevailing institutional stance emphasizes the strategic value of the power initiative in shaping the medium-term earnings profile. As the company approaches its February 18, 2026 report, the majority interpretation is that demonstrating progress on deployment and economics for PROPWR, alongside steady execution in hydraulic fracturing, could become the pivotal catalysts for re-rating the shares even in the face of current-quarter declines implied by consensus models.