Abstract

Waste Connections will report fourth-quarter results on February 11, 2026 Post Market; this preview synthesizes recent financials, consensus forecasts, and institutional commentary to frame expectations for revenue, profitability, and adjusted EPS, alongside segment dynamics and key debate points for the upcoming print.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to revenue of $2.37 billion, up 5.62% year over year, with forecast EPS of $1.28 and EBIT of $0.48 billion; year-over-year growth is guided at 6.98% for EPS and 7.17% for EBIT. The company’s last update implies steady margin resilience, though the street’s model embeds a flattish to slightly improving gross margin and stable net profitability; if provided, the company’s guidance emphasized incremental expansion on disciplined price and mix, while adjusted EPS is projected to grow mid-to-high single digits year over year. Main operations are expected to benefit from resilient solid waste pricing and volume normalization across collection, landfills, and transfer; revenue composition continues to be anchored by collection and disposal, with commodity-sensitive recycling remaining a smaller contributor but potentially a margin tailwind quarter on quarter. The most promising area remains core collection, which delivered $1.73 billion last quarter; alongside transfer and landfill revenue at $0.39 billion and $0.41 billion, respectively, the run-rate suggests stable to slightly accelerating growth into the new quarter depending on acquisition close timing and pricing cadence.

Last Quarter Review

Waste Connections reported last quarter revenue of $2.46 billion, a gross profit margin of 42.77%, GAAP net income attributable to shareholders of $0.29 billion, a net profit margin of 11.64%, and adjusted EPS of $1.44, with year-over-year growth of 6.67% on adjusted EPS and 5.13% on revenue. Quarter on quarter, GAAP net profit dipped by 1.38%, reflecting typical seasonality and cost phasing, while core profitability remained solid on price execution and disciplined cost control. Business mix remained healthy: collection generated $1.73 billion, landfill $0.41 billion, transfer $0.39 billion, E&P-related activities $0.19 billion, recycling $0.06 billion, and intermodal/other $0.04 billion, with inter-segment eliminations of $0.37 billion; the dispersion underscores a balanced disposal network with collection-led revenue concentration and limited exposure to commodity swings.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Core Solid Waste Collection and Disposal

Collection and disposal remain the primary revenue and cash flow engines this quarter. Price discipline across municipal and commercial contracts, combined with steady industrial activity, should underpin sequential stability in route density and yield. With revenue of $1.73 billion in collection last quarter and landfill at $0.41 billion, the integrated network positions the company to translate contractual escalators into sustained revenue growth, especially where CPI-linked escalators remain intact. Labor, fuel, and equipment costs are the watch items for margin translation. While diesel fuel volatility can pressure operating expense lines, surcharges and pricing mechanisms typically offset spikes with a lag, aiding gross margin preservation. Acquisition contributions can augment route density, smoothing inflationary pressure through scale benefits and improving disposal pull-through, which supports EBIT progression toward the guided 7.17% year-over-year increase. Operational leverage may be modest but positive. As route optimization and fleet investment continue, incremental margins on price-led revenue growth should provide a cushion against temporary volume softness. If pricing outpaces volume, mix could favor margin, sustaining a gross margin profile near the low 40% range and keeping net margins around the low double digits.

Segments With the Best Prospects

The core collection business appears poised for the most consistent growth, supported by contractual escalators and tuck-in M&A that consolidate local markets and increase disposal internalization. The last quarter’s $1.73 billion collection revenue signals a stable baseline likely to benefit from ongoing pricing actions. Landfill and transfer, at $0.41 billion and $0.39 billion respectively, should track with volume normalization and local economic activity, contributing to disposal pull-through and margin steadiness. Recycling remains a smaller component at $0.06 billion, but improving commodity prices and processing efficiencies can provide incremental margin lift even on a modest revenue base. E&P-related revenue, at $0.19 billion, is leveraged to regional drilling and production trends; stability in activity levels can support flat-to-up performance, though management typically frames this as supplemental rather than core. Net, the area with the clearest near-term upside is collection, given its pricing visibility and the company’s acquisition strategy that enhances density and internalization. The current quarter’s set-up suggests that acquisitions closed late in the previous quarter and early in this quarter could add low-to-mid single-digit revenue contributions annualized. Integration efficiencies and enhanced route density are the avenues for incremental EBIT, and consensus already embeds some of this, reflected in the 7.17% EBIT growth expectation.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Price realization versus cost inflation is a primary determinant of sentiment. Investors will focus on whether high single-digit price increases are translating into adjusted EPS growth of 6.98% as modeled, and whether gross margin can hold near the prior quarter’s 42.77% despite cost variability. Any deviation here—positive or negative—can drive post-print moves, given the sector’s sensitivity to margin narratives. Acquisition cadence and integration updates will shape forward estimates. The company’s history of disciplined tuck-ins makes incremental consolidation a recurring catalyst; clarity on pipeline, valuation discipline, and synergy timing will influence confidence in sustaining mid-single-digit revenue growth and EBIT scaling. Disposal internalization rates are pivotal, as improved pull-through enhances profitability and reduces third-party expense leakage. Commodity exposures, while limited, still matter. Recycling price trends and E&P-related activity can modestly affect revenue and margin mix. If recycled commodity indices trend favorably, even a $0.06 billion revenue line can offer a helpful gross margin lift; conversely, weakness would minimally drag but is unlikely to alter the broader thesis. Updates on renewable natural gas and landfill gas monetization could also contribute marginally to EBITDA quality and cash flow visibility.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent previews and institutional commentaries, the balance of opinions skews constructive, with the majority projecting an in-line to modest beat on revenue and EPS and a steady margin narrative; bullish views outnumber cautious takes by an estimated two-to-one ratio. Noted institutions expect continued benefit from pricing strength, disciplined acquisition integration, and stable disposal volumes, framing the company as positioned to deliver mid-single-digit revenue growth with expanding EBIT on internalization and mix. The constructive camp highlights resilience in core collection and disposal and anticipates that adjusted EPS of $1.28 will be achievable on revenue of $2.37 billion, aided by controllable levers such as price and cost management. Cautious voices focus on cost inflation and fuel volatility, but most agree that pass-through mechanisms and surcharges reduce downside risk over a full quarter. Overall, expectations center on a clean print with reaffirmed full-year trajectory, and a setup that could support incremental estimate revisions if acquisition contributions and recycling prices track toward the upper end of modeled ranges.