On Wednesday, March 25, during early Asian trading hours, spot gold once again climbed above $4,500 per ounce. This movement follows reports that mediators from Turkey, Egypt, and Pakistan are pushing for a meeting between U.S. and Iranian officials within the next 48 hours. The United States is reportedly prepared to propose a one-month ceasefire plan to discuss a 15-point agreement aimed at ending the conflict.
Market drivers: Although the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance continues to exert some influence, market participants have largely priced in its policy expectations. Recent comments from several Fed officials have kept the door open for potential interest rate cuts this year, with markets broadly betting on further easing in 2026. Expectations for declining real interest rates are gradually building, lowering the opportunity cost of holding gold and creating room for price appreciation. In the near term, London gold has rebounded with a bullish close after hitting a bottom. The core drivers include technical recovery from oversold conditions, ongoing gold purchases by global central banks, and profit-taking by short sellers. These factors, combined with a short-term weakening of the U.S. dollar, have further strengthened gold's upward momentum. Additionally, positive developments in Middle East geopolitics are moderating regional risks and gently releasing safe-haven demand. This is gradually reactivating gold's role as a避险 asset, attracting capital flows into the gold market rather than into U.S. dollar-denominated assets. Domestically, gold T+D is being supported by a stabilizing RMB exchange rate and recovering local physical demand, allowing it to gradually keep pace with the international gold price rally. The divergence between domestic and international prices continues to narrow, collectively supporting an overall bullish outlook for gold.
Technical analysis: Daily chart: After previously touching a low, London gold has closed bullishly, successfully moving out of its bottom-searching consolidation range. The bullish pattern is clear, with the medium to long-term trend gradually shifting from weak to strong. The price is steadily approaching the moving average system, and the previous bearish alignment of moving averages is easing, beginning to form the early stages of a bullish alignment. This provides solid support for further upward movement. Based on recent price action, support has formed around the $4,500 per ounce level, which aligns with the 200-day moving average and a prior consolidation platform, establishing a foundation for the rally. Resistance near $4,590 per ounce is gradually weakening; a breakout above this level would open further upside potential, targeting the $4,700 per ounce area. In terms of indicators, the KDJ has been recovering steadily from oversold territory and has entered a strong zone, indicating continued bullish momentum. The MACD indicator shows green bars have completely narrowed, while the DIF and DEA lines have formed a valid golden cross. The expanding red bars are sending a clear bullish signal, confirming the accumulation of upward momentum and a noticeable trend reversal, solidifying the bullish outlook.
Four-hour chart: Gold prices are exhibiting a step-like upward pattern, consecutively closing higher and breaking through previous consolidation ranges. Bullish momentum remains ample, with a clear and structured upward trend. The MACD indicator formed an effective golden cross below the zero line, and the subsequent expansion of red bars indicates strengthening bullish momentum, suggesting the short-term uptrend has strong continuity. The KDJ indicator remains in a strong zone without yet reaching overbought thresholds, indicating room for further gains with no signs of momentum exhaustion. Support and resistance levels are well-defined: the $4,508-$4,535 per ounce range provides strong support, closely aligned with intraday lows and serving as a reliable base. Holding above this zone would sustain the upward trajectory. Resistance between $4,570 and $4,590 per ounce is being progressively breached, turning it into a support zone for further advances. The price is expected to challenge higher levels in the near term. The overall trend is characterized by "bullish dominance and steady appreciation," with a clear logical basis for being long.
Hourly chart: The short-term movement closely follows the upward rhythm of the four-hour chart, displaying a clear pattern of oscillating higher. The trading range has gradually shifted upward to $4,530-$4,600 per ounce, with minimal pullbacks, indicating absolute dominance by bullish forces. The KDJ indicator remains in a strong zone, with clear signals favoring the bulls and no signs of a downward turn. The MACD's red bars continue to expand steadily, while the DIF and DEA lines maintain their golden cross formation, confirming sufficient short-term bullish momentum to support a steady climb. For practical trading, close attention should be paid to the breakout situation near $4,570 per ounce. As the price approaches this level, a successful breach would open the path toward the $4,590-$4,600 range. Any minor pullback should be viewed as a normal consolidation within the broader uptrend and not a reversal of the bullish outlook. Such dips present opportunities to establish long positions without excessive concern.
Trading strategy: Given the bullish trend following gold's positive close, the recommended approach is to favor long positions and align with the prevailing momentum. For short-term trades, consider entering long positions near the strong support zone of $4,530-$4,540 per ounce. If the price retraces to this area, it may offer a chance to add to positions. Medium-term traders can gradually build long exposure, relying on the daily chart's golden cross and trend reversal signals, holding with an upside target near $4,693 per ounce.