JPMorgan Chase's latest research report signals a pivotal inflection point in US inflation dynamics. Actual US tariffs have climbed stealthily from 2.3% early this year to approximately 13%, with potential industry-specific levies threatening to drive the effective annual rate toward 20%. While May's headline CPI held steady at a modest 2.4%, economists now project second-half annualized inflation could rocket to 5% – a forecast intrinsically linked to delayed market reactions to tariff policies and oil price fluctuations.

The current muted inflation response to tariffs stems largely from subdued oil prices. Brent crude's year-on-year decline and its strong correlation with US CPI have provided temporary relief, but this dampening effect is waning. Since April, oil has staged a monthly ascent; sustained upward momentum could reignite inflationary pressures. Corporate strategies reveal an evolving pattern: initially absorbing tariff costs internally due to consumer sensitivity and market share concerns, businesses now cautiously test price hikes. Japanese automakers recently announced increases, luxury brands implemented mid-single-digit adjustments, and tech hardware firms leveraged bargaining power to transfer expenses.

Currency movements compound these dynamics. The report anticipates short-term dollar strength but persistent medium-term weakness through 2025's latter half. Historically, such dollar softness accompanies rising import inflation. Should depreciation continue, pricier imported goods may fuel CPI gains, forging a self-reinforcing "tariff-currency-inflation" feedback loop.

Sector implications diverge sharply. JPMorgan maintains conservatism toward energy while championing mining stocks with a "double upgrade" rating. Weak dollar tailwinds coupled with record-low global metal inventories position miners for profit expansion. Industrials face fragmentation: though most firms offset tariffs through pricing actions, others endure near-term margin compression from pre-sold inventory or limited pricing flexibility. Recovery hinges critically on supply chain recalibration speed.

Corporate adaptation unfolds in three distinct phases: initial cost absorption, followed by price adjustments, culminating in supply chain redesign. H&M exemplifies dynamic pricing agility, while Inditex mitigates risks through diversified global sourcing. Steel titan ArcelorMittal illustrates this progression – quantifying annual tariff impacts at $800 million (10% of EBITDA) while capitalizing on rising US steel prices. Such cases demonstrate how enterprises balance cost pressures through strategic diversification.

Ultimately, JPMorgan emphasizes that the looming inflation surge reflects a combustible convergence of oil markets, corporate behavior, and exchange rate volatility. Resource assets remain favored, while industrials brace for transitional strain. Investors must prioritize two critical metrics: corporate cost-pass-through capabilities and supply chain resilience – the decisive factors in navigating inflation's uneven landscape and capturing structural opportunities.