**Gold Market Trend Analysis:** On November 24, gold prices showed a downward trend, dropping approximately 0.60% to around $4,050 per ounce. The previous trading session saw volatile movements, with spot gold stabilizing at $4,077.17 per ounce after reaching a high of $4,110.03 and a low of $4,038.82. The gains from the delayed U.S. September non-farm payroll data have been fully erased. Currently, gold prices remain about 7.00% below the all-time high of $4,381.29 set in October, despite an impressive 55% surge in 2025. The September non-farm payroll report, though reflecting past conditions, drew attention with an unexpected increase of 69,000 jobs. The delayed data, released nearly two months later due to the U.S. government shutdown, significantly exceeded expectations. However, the report also revealed a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4%, the highest since 2021, with downward revisions for July and August data. Despite mixed signals, the market interpreted the report as confirmation of a stronger-than-expected labor market before the shutdown. Notably, the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the October non-farm payroll report will not be released, and the November report is postponed to December 16, making the September data the last reference before the Fed's December rate decision.
**Technical Analysis of Gold:** Gold's recent performance has been relatively predictable, though precise entry points remain challenging. Following the bearish non-farm payroll data, gold exhibited a wide-ranging consolidation, closing with a long-legged doji candle. This pattern suggests a bearish bias, with further downside potential. Resistance is seen at $4,098, and a rebound above this level presents a selling opportunity, targeting $4,000. The broader technical outlook indicates gold remains in a high-range consolidation with narrowing volatility, signaling an impending directional breakout. The $4,110 level, where prices reversed after an overnight rally, serves as a key resistance for short positions. The 1-hour chart shows continued weakness, with prices failing to break above $4,110 and forming lower highs, reinforcing the bearish bias. Intraday trading strategies recommend selling on rallies, with resistance at $4,088–$4,100 and support at $4,040–$4,020.
**Crude Oil Market Trend Analysis:** During the Asian session, WTI crude extended losses for a third consecutive day, testing previous lows near $58.40 per barrel. Volatility increased after Ukraine's president expressed willingness to advance a preliminary peace plan proposed by the U.S. and Russia. From a supply perspective, any progress toward easing sanctions on Russia—the world's third-largest oil producer—could reintroduce significant volumes into the market. The crude market already faces potential annual oversupply, exacerbated by rising output from OPEC+ and other producers. While peace developments may cause short-term sentiment swings, the core market concern remains the uncertainty around future supply increases and sanction enforcement. Oil prices are likely to stay weak in the near term, with global inventory trends and producer policies under scrutiny. A substantive breakthrough in peace talks could trigger a fresh supply-demand rebalancing.
**Technical Analysis of Crude Oil:** On the daily chart, crude oil shows a secondary consolidation pattern, with the latest session’s bearish engulfing candle erasing gains from the prior three days. However, the consolidation phase persists. The MACD indicator remains below zero, suggesting further accumulation of bullish momentum is needed. A rebound is anticipated after testing support levels. The 1-hour chart reveals a downward trend, with prices falling below $59. The moving averages align bearishly, and the MACD shows strong downward momentum, indicating continued weakness. Intraday strategies favor selling on rallies, with resistance at $59.0–$60.0 and support at $56.5–$55.5.