An Investor’s Guide to Navigating Singapore’s General Election

Bloomberg
28 Apr

Assurances of policy continuity and supportive measures for the economy will be top of mind for many investors ahead of Singapore’s elections as markets remain pressured from US-imposed tariffs.

Saturday’s vote may help boost shares of domestically-driven companies in sectors including retail, construction and infrastructure on potential policy support. It could also spur the local dollar, which tends to trend higher in the period leading up to and after an election, according to DBS Bank Ltd.

The stakes couldn’t be higher for the city-state as growing trade uncertainty risks an economic slowdown and adds another headache for voters grappling with cost-of-living concerns. How policymakers respond to the various headwinds will be closely watched by the market. Since hitting a peak in March, the benchmark Straits Times Index has slid about 4%, underperforming a regional gauge.

“Should global conditions deteriorate, the Singapore government has a track record of timely fiscal intervention to buffer the economy,” said Kenneth Tang, a portfolio manager at Nikko Asset Management. These measures may include job protection, support wages and investments in infrastructure “to counteract negative sentiment, reduced business confidence, and the wealth effects of a slowdown in trade,” he added.

Here’s a look at some of the key sectors that investors will be monitoring:

Budget Winners

Some of the most tangible winners are likely those that benefited from Singapore’s annual budget announcement in February, according to analysts. The spending plan featured hefty handouts and rebates to households as well as measures to boost lending, consumption and the green energy sector.

Retailer Sheng Siong Group Ltd. may get a lift, thanks to the cash vouchers and income tax rebates for citizens.

Construction and infrastructure names are also preferred as public transport, coastal flood protection and airport expansion initiatives were announced, said Jen-Ai Chua, an analyst at Bank Julius Baer.

Domestic Names

In the face of rising trade tensions and external headwinds, stocks of domestically-focused firms that cater to local buyers’ essential needs have emerged as relative havens across Asia. That theme will also play out in Singapore, according to Nikko Asset Management’s Tang.

“Industries such as consumer staples, communication services, utilities, and real estate are less exposed to external trade fragmentation and may benefit from a more inward-looking economic environment,” he said.

Should the Singapore government provide more fiscal support, that should offer an overall boost to market sentiment as well.

Longer-Term Themes

Stocks tied to Singapore’s long-term ambition to boost innovation and energy and infrastructure investments could emerge as winners, market watchers said. The city-state has announced plans to invest in chips, aviation and clean energy.

“As we head into elections, the real story is policy continuity, a hallmark of Singapore’s stability, which supports long-term themes like infrastructure and digitalization,” said Mohit Mirpuri, a fund manager at SGMC Capital Pte. Sectors that could benefit from these themes include industrial and logistics real estate investment trusts, digital infrastructure plays and clean energy-related names.

Mirpuri favors Mapletree Logistics Trust among REITs, and ST Engineering for the digital infrastructure theme.

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