Key headlines from global financial media overnight and this morning include:
1. Trump Anticipates Iran Negotiations Concluding Within a Month Former US President Donald Trump stated he expects negotiations with Iran could be completed within a month. The US is currently seeking a diplomatic agreement with Iran to curb its nuclear ambitions. "I would say within the next month, something like that," Trump told reporters on Thursday when asked about the timeline. "It shouldn't—I mean, it should happen very quickly. They should agree very quickly." Trump warned that failure to reach a deal would be "very painful" for Iran.
2. US Existing Home Sales Record Largest Drop in Nearly Four Years, Disrupted by Winter Storms US existing home sales experienced their most significant decline in nearly four years during January, a month marked by historic cold temperatures and widespread winter storms. Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) released on Thursday showed a 8.4% drop in existing home sales to an annualized rate of 3.91 million units. This figure fell below the median estimate from a survey of economists. The winter storms that swept across much of the US at the end of January likely delayed numerous transactions. Sales in the severely impacted South region—the largest housing market in the US—fell 9% to an annual rate of 1.81 million units. Other regions also saw notable declines. "Below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation in January made it more challenging to discern the underlying cause of the sales decline and whether this month's data is an anomaly," said Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, in a statement.
3. Anthropic Completes $300 Billion Funding Round, Company Valuation Reaches $3.8 Trillion Anthropic has finalized a $300 billion funding round, resulting in a post-money valuation of $3.8 trillion. This transaction further strengthens the artificial intelligence (AI) company as it makes progress in its competition with rival OpenAI. Anthropic announced on Thursday that the funding round was led by Singapore's GIC and Coatue Management. Co-lead investors included D.E. Shaw & Co., Dragoneer Investment Group, Peter Thiel's Founders Fund, Iconiq, and MGX. Other participants featured prominent investors like Sequoia Capital and Lightspeed Venture Partners, alongside tech giants such as NVIDIA and Microsoft. This funding round approximately doubles Anthropic's valuation compared to its previous round, positioning the company as one of the highest-valued private companies globally. This activity comes just months after the startup secured $130 billion in funding, while OpenAI is reportedly seeking to raise up to $1 trillion, highlighting a fierce race among investors to back leading AI firms.
4. Denmark's Second-Largest Pension Fund Considers Reducing US Exposure Amid Risk Assessment ATP, Denmark's second-largest pension fund, indicated it may need to reduce its exposure to US private markets as it, like other institutions, reevaluates potential investment risks associated with the United States. CEO Martin Præstegaard stated in an interview that the $112 billion asset manager is currently conducting a "broad assessment of the US political system." He noted that the US has "performed very well for many years," but the question is "whether that can continue." He added that any potential exit from the US market would be gradual. ATP's private assets portfolio, which was overweight the US, stood at approximately 113 billion kroner ($18 billion) at the end of December and includes unlisted equities, real estate, and infrastructure.
5. Hedge Fund Manager Einhorn Bets on Aggressive Fed Rate Cuts, Calls it "One of the Best Trades" Hedge fund manager David Einhorn is betting that the Federal Reserve, under the leadership of Kevin Warsh, will cut interest rates "significantly more" than the market currently anticipates. The co-founder of Greenlight Capital revealed he has purchased Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) futures, wagering that these contracts will rise if the Fed reduces borrowing costs more aggressively. "I think one of the best trades right now is to bet that there will be more cuts this year than expected," Einhorn said in a CNBC interview on Wednesday. "I think by the end of the year, we're going to have a lot more than two cuts." His comments followed a better-than-expected jobs report, which prompted traders to scale back their bets on Fed rate cuts this year to roughly two quarter-point reductions.
6. AI Landscape Shifts Again as OpenAI Ecosystem Stocks Return to Wall Street's Spotlight Artificial intelligence has recently created significant waves in the stock market, with tools from Alphabet and startups like Anthropic and Altruist impacting sectors such as software and financial services. However, one name has been conspicuously absent from the discussion: OpenAI. The former AI "kingmaker" appears to have been overtaken by competitors, at least in the public eye. Nevertheless, Wall Street is not ready to give up on the developer of ChatGPT and its related companies. "OpenAI is likely, if not certain, to launch a new model at some point this year that recaptures market attention and reverses the perception of being behind," said Brian Barbetta, Co-Head of the Technology Team and Co-Portfolio Manager of the Global Innovation Strategy at Wellington Management. "Stocks associated with OpenAI would naturally benefit from that."