Recent significant increases in trading volume coupled with notable decreases in the outstanding shares of several major broad-based index ETFs have attracted market attention. As major holders of these ETFs include Central Huijin Asset Management Ltd. and Central Huijin Investment Ltd. (collectively referred to as "Huijin"), market participants widely speculate that Huijin, which previously intervened to stabilize the market in 2024 and 2025, is gradually reducing its positions in these funds.
Taking the four major沪深300ETFs—from E Fund, China Asset Management, Harvest Fund, and Huatai-PineBridge—as an example, at the end of 2025, Huijin's shareholding proportion in each exceeded 80%, while holdings by other investors were relatively minor.
A comparison of the total shares and Huijin's holdings in these four沪深300ETFs at the end of 2025 versus the end of 2023 reveals that the growth in the ETFs' total shares was primarily driven by increases in Huijin's holdings. In contrast, both the number and proportion of shares held by other investors declined.
From January 14 to February 2, 2026, trading volumes for these four沪深300ETFs expanded significantly, accompanied by a substantial reduction in their outstanding shares. Since the decrease in outstanding shares exceeded the total shares held by investors other than Huijin, it is reasonable to infer that Huijin reduced its holdings in these ETFs during this period.
Beyond these four沪深300ETFs, Huijin also appears among the top ten holders of several other broad-based ETFs, which similarly showed pronounced decreases in outstanding shares during this timeframe.
Using the four major沪深300ETFs again for estimation, by calculating the daily change in outstanding shares from January 2, 2024 (the first trading day of 2024) to February 2, 2026, and estimating daily fund flows based on the day's average trading price, cumulative share changes and cumulative fund inflows over the period can be derived. The analysis shows that as of February 2, 2026, these four沪深300ETFs still retained some net share increases accumulated since the beginning of 2024, but the cumulative fund flow had overall turned to a net outflow.
Fourteen ETFs were identified where Huijin held significant positions according to mid-2025 reports but held minor or no positions based on the 2023 annual reports. A broad estimate of the fund flows for these 14 sample ETFs from January 2, 2024, to February 2, 2026, indicates that the net outflow between January 14 and February 2, 2026, completely offset the net inflow recorded from January 2, 2024, to January 13, 2026. This reasonably suggests Huijin executed a significant exit operation.
During the period of sharp decline in shares for the sample ETFs, the corresponding indices generally experienced small to moderate declines. However, by the close on February 11, some indices had turned positive, while declines in others had narrowed. Overall, the exit process was orderly and stable, without causing significant disruption to the underlying markets, representing a successful withdrawal. It is estimated that Huijin retains holdings in some ETF funds, which can continue to serve as market stabilizers in the future.
Based on the aforementioned data, Huijin's cost basis, exit amount, and profit/loss situation can be roughly estimated. For simplicity, the analysis assumes that net inflows from January 2 to September 23, 2024, and from April 7 to April 16, 2025, were solely from Huijin. Similarly, the net outflows and reduction in outstanding shares of the ETFs from January 14 to February 2, 2026, are attributed to Huijin's exit. Huijin's current remaining holdings in each ETF are approximated by subtracting the net share decrease during the January 14-February 2, 2026 period from its holding figures in the mid-2025 reports. Estimates based on these assumptions suggest Huijin has likely recovered most of its principal and realized substantial floating profits.
It is crucial to note that the figures are estimates based on public data and may differ significantly from actual amounts. For instance, significant net redemptions by other investors during the cost estimation periods could lead to an underestimation of Huijin's costs and a consequent overestimation of its profits.
The publicly disclosed financial reports of Central Huijin Investment Ltd., related to its medium-term note issuances in the interbank market, offer a reference for verifying these estimates. The company's 2024 cash flow statement shows a net cash outflow of 443.125 billion yuan for "purchase and sale of financial assets," which, while not identical, is of the same order of magnitude as the estimated cost of Huijin's interventions from January 2 to September 23, 2024.
From the company's balance sheet, its total liabilities increased by 725.678 billion yuan in 2024, primarily due to a 563.358 billion yuan increase in short-term borrowings. This suggests the funds Huijin used for market-stabilizing ETF purchases in 2024 were likely sourced mainly from short-term borrowing. Given the estimated exit amount of 602.115 billion yuan between January 14 and February 2, 2026, it is believed these withdrawn funds are sufficient to repay the vast majority of the short-term borrowings.
Regarding profitability, Huijin's 2024 income statement shows a "fair value change gain" of 110.628 billion yuan. With the A-share market posting significant gains in 2025—the CSI All Share Total Return Index rose 27.03% for the year—Huijin would have accrued substantial profits.
Views among market participants regarding Huijin's recent exit and its profits vary. Internationally, stock markets in Hong Kong China, South Korea, and Japan have conducted market-stabilizing operations during extreme volatility, followed by orderly exits once markets normalized, generally achieving reasonable returns. Stabilization funds in Hong Kong China and South Korea have completed their exits, with South Korea's fund even undergoing multiple "stabilization-exit" cycles. Although Japan's stabilization fund has not yet fully exited, its paper profits are considerable amidst the market reaching new historical highs. Referencing these international precedents, Huijin's intervention to stabilize the market during critical periods and its subsequent exit as conditions stabilize is a normal and rational practice.