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On October 17th, oil prices went completely wild. US crude broke above $100 again. Diesel is in short supply. Another $100 increase is just the starting point!

Crude oil surged, with US crude once again exceeding $100. Refineries went crazy—one refinery's diesel quote rose by at least 140. Diesel has gone mad.

International oil prices saw a significant rally, with WTI rising 3.51% to $101.41, and Brent climbing 3.72% to $109.86.

Shandong local refineries have raised prices across the board, and it has already begun.

Why did crude oil surge? Three fires burning together.

The first: The US and Israel are intensifying consultations on plans to strike Iran. Netanyahu and Rubio held a phone call to discuss military strike plans against Iran, with the scope of strikes covering infrastructure, energy facilities, missile bases, and nuclear facilities. Trump stated that strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities are possible, and claimed the war would end soon and that Iran is negotiating with the US. US aircraft carriers have returned to the Arabian Sea, and the number of Middle East cargo flights has surged 80% over the past two weeks.

The second: Saudi Arabia and the Houthis are escalating their confrontation. The Houthi armed group threatened to strike Saudi Aramco's core oil facilities, and security risks near Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port are rising. The market is concerned that Middle East energy facilities and crude oil exports will be further affected.

The third: Ukraine has resumed attacks on Russian refineries. Russia stated that Ukrainian forces launched a large-scale attack on a refinery in Ryazan Oblast in the early morning, causing a fire, adding further uncertainty to Russia's refined oil supply outlook.

In addition, the IEA monthly report shows that global diesel supply tightness may continue until 2027, while also lowering its 2026 oil demand forecast.

The average global crude oil freight rate has risen to $30 per barrel, up 650% year-on-year, with Middle East route freight rates rising to $35 per barrel. The freight rate for Murban crude loaded on the western side of the Strait of Hormuz is about $20 per barrel higher than Basra crude loaded inside the Persian Gulf. Freight rates—this monster—are growing fatter and fatter.

The Shandong diesel boss circle a1108993 also observed in discussions that any one of these news items, if reported alone, could trigger fierce turbulence in the crude oil market. Let alone when they all come together—they came as a group. How could crude oil not go crazy? It has completely entered a state of frenzy.

Our view remains the same: diesel supply is still tight, the majors are not letting go, bottom support is solid, and prices remain firm at high levels!

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