Abstract

Empire State Realty Trust will report fourth-quarter results on February 17, 2026, Post Market; this preview outlines consensus revenue and EBIT forecasts, key margin watchpoints, last quarter’s performance mix, and the prevailing bearish analyst stance heading into the update.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter points to total revenue of 197.60 million, up 2.59% year over year, and EBIT of 37.72 million, up 0.48% year over year. Forecasts for gross profit margin, net profit or net margin, and adjusted EPS were not captured in the dataset. Leasing remains the principal revenue driver, shaping cash flow predictability and near-term operating leverage through rent collections, lease maturities, and re-leasing economics. The Observatory, recognized as the company’s most scalable consumer-facing platform, remains a key watchpoint for ticket yields and throughput, with last quarter’s revenue at 36.04 million; year-over-year detail for this segment was not captured in the dataset.

Last Quarter Review

In the last reported quarter, Empire State Realty Trust delivered revenue of 197.73 million (down 0.94% year over year), a gross profit margin of 53.45%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of 9.04 million, and a net profit margin of 4.57%; adjusted EPS was not captured in the dataset. Sequentially, net profit improved by 19.35% quarter on quarter, supported by disciplined expense control relative to revenue. The revenue mix featured Leasing at 158.41 million (80.11% of total), the Observatory at 36.04 million (18.23%), third-party management and other fees at 0.40 million (0.20%), and other revenue at 2.88 million (1.46%); year-over-year growth by segment was not captured in the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Leasing momentum and operating leverage

Leasing is expected to remain the core revenue engine this quarter, and consensus revenue and EBIT expectations imply cautious expansion rather than a step-change acceleration. With last quarter’s gross margin at 53.45% and net margin at 4.57%, incrementally positive spread capture and tenant retention can translate into modest operating leverage, provided controllable expenses stay contained. The quarter-on-quarter lift in net profit last quarter of 19.35% highlights that sequential expense discipline can cushion the P&L even when year-over-year revenue trends are subdued, and that dynamic will be closely watched again. Lease duration and cash rent progression often feed directly into top-line visibility, so any commentary on executed rent levels, renewal activity, and periods of downtime between tenancies will inform the durability of EBIT versus the 37.72 million consensus. From a P&L construction standpoint, a steady leasing contribution in the 158–160 million range (as a reference to last quarter’s level of 158.41 million) would likely be consistent with the revenue consensus, with small variations in non-rent items potentially determining whether EBIT meets or misses the comparatively tight year-over-year growth expectation of 0.48%.

Observatory monetization and mix benefits

The Observatory remains a differentiating revenue stream with consumer pricing and throughput as the primary levers; last quarter’s 36.04 million contribution underscores its materiality to both revenue and mix. Pricing, channel mix, and product attachment rates (such as premium experiences) can influence realized yield per visitor, which in turn can affect consolidated gross margin because the segment’s unit economics can diverge from lease-driven cash flows. While we do not have a formal forecast or segment-specific growth rate in the dataset, investor focus will be on management’s color around traffic patterns within the quarter, booking trends, and any changes in price architecture that could lift revenue per ticket. If the Observatory can maintain or lift its dollar contribution against essentially flat consolidated revenue expectations, that could incrementally support margin quality given last quarter’s 53.45% gross margin base. Conversely, if mix skews back toward lease-driven revenue without an offset from ancillary fees or other higher-yield items, consolidated margin could remain range-bound with limited scope to expand beyond the run-rate established last quarter.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

Given consensus projecting only a 2.59% year-over-year revenue increase to 197.60 million and a 0.48% increase in EBIT to 37.72 million, small deviations in margin or segment mix can have an outsized impact on reported EPS and the share price reaction. The market is likely to focus on whether last quarter’s sequential net profit improvement can be repeated through cost control or mix, particularly since GAAP net margin sat at 4.57% and leaves limited buffer for unexpected items. Any commentary that provides clarity on the path for operating margin, expense run-rate, and the cadence of non-operating items could help investors handicap the trajectory for net income and adjusted EPS beyond this quarter, even though EPS forecasts were not captured in the dataset. On the top line, investors will parse whether leasing cash flows are trending in line with the prior quarter’s 158.41 million contribution and whether the Observatory remains near its 36.04 million baseline, as these two datapoints collectively explained over 98% of last quarter’s revenue. Finally, management’s update on the pipeline of leases and commercial partnerships, as well as any visibility on pre-booked Observatory demand, may set the tone for whether the modest consensus growth translates into a beat, meet, or miss scenario.

Analyst Opinions

Bearish views comprise the majority of the captured opinions during the current window. Wells Fargo analyst James Feldman maintained a Sell rating with a price target of $6.80, signaling caution on the near-term setup. The muted growth embedded in consensus—revenue at 197.60 million (+2.59% year over year) and EBIT at 37.72 million (+0.48% year over year)—aligns with a conservative stance that emphasizes limited earnings expansion if margin progression remains constrained. With last quarter’s gross margin at 53.45% and GAAP net margin at 4.57%, the bar for material upside may be tied to mix improvement and tighter expense control rather than broad-based acceleration, and the analyst’s posture is consistent with that risk-reward balance. The sequential uptick in net profit last quarter (+19.35% quarter on quarter) demonstrates that management can pull cost levers; however, the year-over-year profile—a 0.94% revenue decline and a 13.26% EBIT contraction in the last reported quarter—frames why a sell-side bear might anticipate a balanced-to-cautious outlook into February 17, 2026. Heading into the print, the bearish majority will likely key on whether leasing cash flows and Observatory revenue at least match last quarter’s 158.41 million and 36.04 million levels, respectively, and whether operating discipline can preserve the mid-50s gross margin while nudging net margin higher from 4.57%. If those conditions are not met, the limited growth embedded in consensus could be vulnerable, which underpins the prevailing bearish skew in institutional commentary.