Heightened geopolitical risks, fueled by U.S. President Donald Trump's imposition of a deadline for negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, are driving international oil and gold prices higher. Trump stated that Iran has a maximum of 10 to 15 days to reach an agreement concerning its nuclear activities or face consequences, marking a significant escalation in U.S. pressure. Concurrently, the United States is undertaking its largest military deployment in the Middle East since the prelude to the 2003 Iraq war, a move interpreted by markets as preserving options for potential sustained military action. As a result, international oil prices are holding near six-month highs. At the time of writing, U.S. WTI crude futures were trading just below $67 per barrel, having gained approximately 7% over the preceding two sessions, while Brent crude futures settled near $72 per barrel. A primary risk for oil prices is the potential disruption to global petroleum supplies if Iran decides to block the Strait of Hormuz, a critical channel for Middle Eastern crude exports. With traders continuously assessing the potential impact of regional conflict on supply, oil prices have risen about 17% this year. The region's oil output, accounting for roughly one-third of global production, is currently overshadowing pressure on prices from expectations of a supply surplus by late 2025. Analysts at Citi, including Anthony Yuen, noted in a report that oil prices would likely climb further if conflict with Iran escalates into a disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, while adding that their base case does not assume a prolonged shutdown of this key waterway. The rising risk premium is also evident in the crude options market. For much of the year, call options have traded at a significant premium to put options as traders hedge against the risk of a price spike. On Wednesday, Brent crude June $100 call options, equivalent to 10 million barrels, changed hands. Bullish momentum was further bolstered after data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a 9 million-barrel drawdown in crude inventories, the largest decline since early September. Inventories of refined products also declined across the board. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, is also performing strongly, with prices stabilizing around $5,000 per ounce after rising more than 2% over the previous two trading days. The head of the UN nuclear watchdog has warned that the U.S. military deployment suggests the window for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran nuclear issue is closing. Market analysts point out that the negotiation window provided by the Trump administration is extremely tight and accompanied by unprecedented military pressure, reminiscent of the scenario preceding U.S. military strikes against Iran last June. At that time, Trump similarly spoke of allowing "two weeks for diplomacy," but action commenced just two days later. While large-scale military action is a focus of discussion, reports indicate the White House has not ruled out limited, early strikes to compel the Iranian government back to the negotiating table. Beyond geopolitics, uncertainty regarding the path of U.S. interest rates is also supporting gold prices. Since lower borrowing costs typically benefit non-yielding assets like gold, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction remains another key market focus. Reports suggest that Fed Governor Stephen Milan has softened his previous calls for significant interest rate cuts this year, following recent data indicating a stronger-than-expected U.S. economy. The U.S. dollar index has gained 0.8% so far this week. The gold market has experienced notable volatility since suffering a historic sell-off early this month, when prices plunged from a record peak above $5,595 per ounce to near $4,400 within just two days. A wave of speculative buying that accelerated in January pushed the multi-year rally to a tipping point. However, the fundamental factors underpinning the earlier price increase—including persistent capital outflows from sovereign bonds and currencies—remain largely intact. Given the tensions surrounding Iran, gold's value as a safe haven is also coming back into focus. Following widespread unrest, Iranian leaders are deeply concerned about regime stability. A major strike against Iran could potentially entangle the United States in its third self-initiated war in the Middle East since 1991.