Abstract
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation will post-Market release its quarterly results on February 10, 2026, with consensus pointing to improving revenue and margin trends alongside measured EPS recovery as investors watch pricing, utilization, and China domestic demand signals.Market Forecast
The market expects Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation’s current quarter revenue at RMB 2.42 billion, implying a year-over-year increase of 10.76%, with EBIT forecast at RMB 0.18 billion and adjusted EPS at RMB 0.02. Forecast commentary implies gradual margin repair; specific gross profit margin and net margin guidance are not disclosed, while the company’s last report implies continued sequential improvement in profitability. The core manufacturing business is projected to expand as utilization modestly recovers, supported by domestic demand for mature nodes and specialty processes. The segment with the largest incremental opportunity is the Manufacture and Sale of Integrated Circuits business, expected to reach RMB 2.42 billion this quarter, up 10.76% year over year.Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation reported revenue of RMB 2.38 billion, a gross profit margin of 21.95%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent of RMB 0.19 billion, a net profit margin of 8.05%, and adjusted EPS of RMB 0.02. Management highlighted quarter-on-quarter net profit growth of 44.74%, reflecting better utilization and cost control. The main business, Manufacture and Sale of Integrated Circuits, delivered RMB 2.38 billion in revenue with positive year-over-year growth momentum.Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)
Main manufacturing operations
Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation’s core operations in wafer fabrication remain the largest revenue contributor, and this quarter’s expectations hinge on utilization trending higher from prior troughs. A stable pricing environment for mature nodes combined with incremental mix improvement in specialty technologies should support revenue growth near the guided range. Cost absorption benefits from improved loading are likely to underpin gross margin stabilization relative to last quarter’s 21.95%, though energy, materials, and depreciation pressures may limit upside magnitude.The company’s mix exposure to consumer, IoT, and industrial applications means order patterns can be uneven intra-quarter, but backlog visibility improved into the new year. Management’s prior focus on operational efficiency and yield enhancements suggests incremental opex discipline, helping EBIT approach RMB 0.18 billion, consistent with forecasts. Any upside to margins will likely come from sustained utilization above plan and selective price firmness in tight specialty niches.
From a competitive standpoint in mature process nodes, customer stickiness and dual-sourcing strategies favor domestic supply continuity. That, combined with local ecosystem support, strengthens the near-term shipment outlook. However, any moderation in domestic end-demand or a shift in product mix toward lower-value layers could cap revenue per wafer and pressure blended gross margin.
Most promising business vector
The Manufacture and Sale of Integrated Circuits segment, effectively the company’s comprehensive foundry revenue line, is positioned to deliver the strongest absolute growth this quarter with revenue projected at RMB 2.42 billion, up 10.76% year over year. Demand traction is anchored by mature-node applications in power management, display drivers, MCUs, and connectivity, areas where domestic substitution continues to unfold. Incremental wins in specialty processes and tighter collaboration with local IC designers can reinforce wafer starts and ASP stability.Beyond near-term volume, process optimization and yield learning on specialty nodes can unlock higher gross value add per wafer. The company’s ability to allocate capacity toward higher-margin flows is a key lever for margin expansion even if headline utilization normalizes. The quarter’s EBIT trajectory is consistent with this mix shift thesis, supported by discipline in capital deployment and depreciation schedules that avoid abrupt step-ups in unit cost.
If order momentum persists into late quarter bookings, forward visibility into the subsequent period could improve. That would support a gradually widening EBIT margin corridor and reduce volatility in quarter-to-quarter earnings. Conversely, if bookings tilt toward price-sensitive categories, revenue growth may arrive with diminished incremental margin, making EBIT more sensitive to overhead absorption dynamics.
Key stock price swing factors this quarter
Investors will likely key on three swing variables: utilization recovery, blended ASPs, and expense efficiency. Utilization crossing internal thresholds tends to deliver nonlinear gross margin lift via better fixed-cost absorption; progress here would validate consensus on margin repair. Blended ASP dynamics are intertwined with product mix: a richer tilt toward specialty wafers supports margins, while a heavier mix of commoditized layers could dilute profitability even if volumes rise.Expense efficiency, including both factory overhead and R&D run-rate, will shape the path from gross profit to EBIT. Management’s demonstrated opex control last quarter provides a baseline, but scale effects and any ramp-related expenses could partially offset gains. Communication around order visibility and backlog composition will be parsed for signs of sustainability in the revenue and margin trajectory into the next quarter.