China's H1 Economic Report Card: Resilience and Steady Progress in Focus

Market Watcher
16 Jul

Midway through 2025, China's economic performance commands global attention as fresh data reveals robust fundamentals. The National Bureau of Statistics reports first-half GDP at 66.0536 trillion yuan, climbing 5.3% year-on-year at constant prices. This expansion unfolds against turbulent external headwinds, with proactive macroeconomic policies fortifying the economy's foundation. Distinctive trends emerge: sustained stability, determined advancement, accumulating innovation momentum, and improving circulation – collectively propelling China's economic vessel through high-quality development waters.

Scrutinizing key indicators reveals remarkable steadiness. Growth momentum remained solid with Q1 GDP rising 5.4% and Q2 maintaining 5.2% expansion. Labor markets strengthened as urban surveyed unemployment averaged 5.2% in H1, dipping 0.1 percentage points from Q1 and settling at 5% in June. Price dynamics showed recovery signals: after four consecutive monthly declines, June CPI edged up 0.1% annually while core CPI (ex-food/energy) surged 0.7% – a 14-month peak. External sector vitality shone through record-high goods trade volumes and foreign exchange reserves stabilizing above $3.2 trillion for 19 consecutive months, marking six straight months of accumulation at $3.3174 trillion.

"The economy withstood pressure while maintaining stable operations," observed Sheng Laiyun, Deputy Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics. "Major indicators surpassed expectations as high-quality development advanced steadily." Beyond aggregate growth, structural upgrades accelerated. Regional efforts to cultivate new productive forces through technological innovation bore fruit: H1 high-tech manufacturing value-added leaped 9.5%, outpacing overall industrial growth by 3.1 percentage points, while Jan-May strategic emerging service firms saw revenues approach double-digit expansion.

This resilience proved hard-won amid geopolitical friction and domestic transition pains. Washington's unilateral tariffs disrupted global commerce, compounding challenges for industries navigating domestic transformation. Beijing responded decisively: April's Politburo meeting prioritized stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations. Subsequent policy packages bolstered corporate competitiveness and confidence through targeted support measures.

Consumption emerged as the standout performer, contributing 52% to GDP growth. Retail sales hit 24.55 trillion yuan, rising 5% annually with Q2 accelerating to 5.4% from Q1's 4.6%. Diverse consumption narratives unfolded: winter sports fever, "silver-haired" tourism carriages traversing floral landscapes, the blockbuster "Ne Zha 2" grossing 15 billion yuan, Labubu's unboxing frenzy, and drone-lit night economies. Sheng highlighted evolving patterns: "Service consumption dominates, holiday spending amplifies, premium categories accelerate, and green consumption gains traction while 'China experiences' and novel retail models multiply."

Industrial innovation kept pace, spotlighted by DeepSeek's debut, humanoid robots performing on New Year's galas, and pioneering "human-robot" marathons. Underpinning this momentum, Jan-May invention patent applications approached 5 million, surging 12.8%. China reinforced its research leadership, topping Nature Index's 2025 ranking while rapidly widening its high-quality output gap. Digitalization permeated traditional industries, with core digital economy sectors now constituting approximately 10% of GDP.

Structural upgrades unfolded across multiple dimensions: services anchored 59.1% of output, delivering over 60% growth contribution; new energy vehicle production vaulted over 30%; automotive lithium-ion battery output rocketed 53.3%; while freight and passenger turnover increased 5.1% and 4.9% respectively. Monetary conditions supported circulation, with June's M2 supply expanding 8.3%. "Domestic circulation assumed greater prominence against external uncertainties," Sheng noted, revealing H1 domestic demand drove 68.8% of GDP expansion.

Global confidence contrasts emerged as World Bank and OECD trimmed worldwide projections while holding China forecasts steady. Investment banks including Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs upgraded assessments. June's manufacturing PMI extended its recovery, rising 0.2 percentage points for the second consecutive month with business expectations firmly in expansion territory.

Recent policy reinforcements include the central bank's 19-measure consumption stimulus blueprint and the State Council's employment stabilization directives. Regional dynamism surfaces through Guangdong's domestic circulation plan, Hubei's SME digitalization push, and Tianjin's debut economy initiatives. Coordinated ministerial actions – from summer tourism promotions to entrepreneurship resource matching – underscore determination to fortify growth foundations.

As China approaches its 14th Five-Year Plan conclusion while drafting the 15th Plan, Sheng cautioned about persistent external uncertainties and domestic structural pressures, urging steadfast policy implementation. Yet the H1 performance establishes firm footing for achieving annual targets, reinforcing China's role as global economic stabilizer through cyclical challenges.

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