Guotai Haitong Securities has released a research report maintaining an "Overweight" rating on Samsonite (01910). The firm forecasts the company's net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 to be $270 million, $300 million, and $340 million, respectively, representing year-on-year changes of -22.3%, +12.2%, and +11.6%. Based on a 2026 P/E multiple of 15x and an exchange rate of 1 USD to 7.8 HKD, the corresponding target price is HKD 24.09. The main points from Guotai Haitong Securities are as follows:
The company has disclosed details for its dual primary listing in the US. Samsonite plans to advance the dual listing in the form of American Depositary Shares (ADS), with the issuance authorization valid until the conclusion of the Annual General Meeting scheduled for June 4, 2026. The price of any new shares issued will be at a discount of no more than 15% to the last closing price and cannot be at a discount of 20% or more to the benchmark share price. Proceeds from the issuance will be used primarily for working capital and capital expenditures, repayment of existing liabilities, repurchases of the company's ordinary shares, and funding potential acquisitions.
The pursuit of a dual listing in the US aims to enhance global trading liquidity. A US listing will make the shares more accessible to American and global investors and is intended to create long-term value for shareholders by providing initial trading liquidity. The proposed secondary offering has a maximum limit of approximately 138 million shares, representing 9.97% of the total issued shares excluding treasury shares. Following the completion of the dual listing, the company plans to cancel all of its approximately 79.3011 million treasury shares. After deducting the cancelled treasury shares, the net dilutive effect of the new share issuance is calculated to be approximately 4.0%.
Recent appointments of the CFO and TUMI President have been finalized. Regarding financial management, Mr. Thomas R. Pizzuti will officially assume the role of Group Chief Financial Officer effective February 2, 2026. He was previously a Partner in the Deal Advisory & Strategy practice at KPMG. For brand management, Mr. Luciano Severo Rodembusch is set to become President of the TUMI brand on or around April 1, 2026. He previously served as President of Pandora North America and Senior Vice President at Tiffany & Co. It is judged that his extensive management experience in the luxury consumer brand sector will enable him to effectively lead TUMI's sustained development as a global functional luxury brand.
Performance in Q4 2025 is expected to continue the improvement trend seen in Q3. In Q3 2025, growth rates for all brands and regions improved sequentially compared to Q2, with TUMI achieving positive growth across all regions. Although the base for comparison is higher in Q4 2025, the brokerage expects the improving trend to continue. It forecasts that Q4 2025 revenue, on a constant currency basis, will be flat or show positive growth year-on-year, with India achieving high single-digit or above growth, China showing positive growth, and the rate of decline in North America continuing to narrow compared to Q3 despite a high base.
The brokerage anticipates that the luggage category may see a replacement cycle in 2026. Continued improvements in the Asia-Pacific and North American markets are expected to have a positive impact on profit margins in 2026. The clarification of the dual listing details is viewed as beneficial for valuation recovery.
Risk factors include a deterioration in the retail environment, intensified industry competition, and worsening brand partnership relations.