Title

Earning Preview: FTAI AVIATION LTD revenue is expected to increase by 36.95%, and institutional views are bullish

Abstract

FTAI AVIATION LTD will release its quarterly results on February 25, 2026 Post Market, with consensus pointing to higher revenue and earnings, while investors focus on execution of recent materials agreements and operating leverage in core programs.

Market Forecast

The current-quarter outlook indicates that FTAI AVIATION LTD is forecast to deliver revenue of 697.41 million, up 36.95% year over year, with adjusted EPS estimated at 1.26, up 42.20% year over year; the EBIT estimate stands at 198.73 million, up 35.13% year over year. Margin forecasts have not been provided in the current dataset, so the focus is on topline expansion and earnings progression relative to the prior-year period. Core commercial drivers remain concentrated in the company’s aerospace products and related services, with momentum supported by parts availability and throughput improvements, as well as steady, recurring economics from the leasing portfolio. The aerospace products segment, which includes CFM56 module and parts sales and related services, generated 517.87 million last quarter and is set to lead the projected 36.95% year-over-year revenue increase this quarter.

Last Quarter Review

FTAI AVIATION LTD last quarter reported revenue of 667.06 million, up 43.21% year over year, a gross profit margin of 39.73%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of 118.00 million, a net profit margin of 17.65%, and adjusted EPS of 1.10, up 44.74% year over year. A notable highlight was top-line performance coming in slightly ahead of expectations (a revenue surprise of approximately 1.09%) alongside strong year-over-year EBIT growth to 200.88 million (+119.92% YoY), even as EPS of 1.10 was below the prior estimate by 0.11 and EBIT missed the estimate by about 14.95%. Within the business mix, aerospace products contributed 517.87 million and aviation leasing contributed 149.20 million, with total revenue expanding 43.21% year over year.

Current Quarter Outlook

Aerospace products and services: execution and mix underpin quarter-on-quarter earnings momentum

Current-quarter consensus expects the earnings cadence to be driven by continued growth in aerospace products and services, where FTAI AVIATION LTD concentrates on module and parts sales, repair and overhaul activity, and related revenue streams. The forecast for revenue of 697.41 million and adjusted EPS of 1.26 implies sustained operating leverage if unit throughput, module exchanges, and parts provisioning pipeline remain intact through the quarter. The company’s gross margin was 39.73% last quarter, and while there is no explicit margin guide for the current period in the available data, the tilt of consensus toward higher EPS YoY implies a supportive mix of higher-margin content and operational efficiency. Near-term earnings sensitivity continues to hinge on the cadence of work flowing into the shop environment and timely access to certified materials. The January 2026 multi-year agreement with CFM International improves access to OEM-backed materials, repair support, and thrust upgrades for the CFM56 family, helping reduce bottlenecks and improve predictability in delivery schedules. In practical terms this can translate into smoother module turn times and potentially higher capture on parts sales, two factors that connect directly to the quarter’s top-line and margin outcomes. Despite EPS missing internal estimates last quarter, the year-over-year acceleration in revenue and EBIT suggests that the core earnings engine remains intact heading into this print, provided that availability and throughput remain steady.

Most promising growth vector: CFM56 aftermarket and FTAI Power scaling

The most visible near-term growth vector is the CFM56 aftermarket ecosystem and adjacent turbine solutions, where FTAI AVIATION LTD has been scaling capabilities. The January 2026 multi-year materials agreement with CFM International supports better parts sourcing and repair coordination, which in turn can improve cost of goods sold and enhance gross profit capture. RBC Capital Markets highlighted that this framework, combined with supportive external indicators for CFM56 shop activity through the medium term, positions the current-quarter setup for a constructive revenue and margin trajectory. Last quarter, the aerospace products segment generated 517.87 million, and this content category is tied to the same areas expected to drive the current quarter’s projected 36.95% year-over-year revenue increase. The company’s EBIT estimate of 198.73 million for this quarter, up 35.13% year over year, aligns with the notion that higher-value module and parts sales, when matched with improved materials access, can foster incremental operating leverage. While a segment-specific YoY growth rate is not disclosed in the dataset, the company-wide revenue and EPS forecasts imply that this vector remains the core contributor to the expected year-over-year uplift.

What will move the stock around this print: beats vs misses, margin color, and materials availability

For equity performance around the release, the interplay between revenue delivery versus the 697.41 million consensus and EPS delivery versus 1.26 will likely be the first-order drivers. Given that last quarter slightly exceeded revenue expectations but missed on EPS and EBIT relative to estimates, investors will be looking for confirmation that mix and materials dynamics have improved in a way that supports the translation from strong revenue growth to stronger earnings per share. Any color on gross margin trajectory — even directional — could be influential, especially against last quarter’s 39.73% benchmark. Management commentary around the January 2026 CFM materials agreement and its initial quarter of impact will be particularly relevant. Investors will parse whether the procurement cadence is now smoother, whether module exchange availability is improving, and how these factors translate into cycle times and realized margins. Stability in the leasing contribution — 149.20 million last quarter — also matters for earnings quality, as it can cushion variability from quarter-to-quarter in the products and services line. Finally, updated read-throughs on work-in-progress and module pipeline coverage could set the tone for the next quarter’s expectations, especially if the company suggests that current constraints are easing into the spring.

Analyst Opinions

Across the period from January 1, 2026 to February 18, 2026, the collected analyst commentary is unanimously bullish. On January 26–27, 2026, RBC Capital Markets reiterated its favorable stance on FTAI AVIATION LTD and raised its price target to 350, citing the January multi-year materials agreement with CFM International as a positive turning point for parts access, repair support, and upgrade optionality on the CFM56 platform. An additional note during this window referenced a Buy-average rating and a mean price target around 280.60, indicating overall supportive sentiment into the quarter. The dominant analyst view emphasizes two key themes. The first is procurement and repair synergy: improved access to OEM-backed materials combined with repair support can aid cost control and reliability, which in turn can sustain higher gross margin capture on module and parts transactions. The second is throughput visibility: references to robust CFM56 shop activity over the next several years align with the company’s quarter-on-quarter execution focus, reinforcing the message that, apart from short-term timing effects, the workflow backdrop is conducive to strong year-over-year comparisons in both revenue and EPS. Put differently, analysts see a cleaner runway for the company’s build plan and a greater chance that high-value content shows up predictably in recognized revenue. In assessing the quarter at hand, bullish research notes also connect the material agreement to improved alignment of parts availability with planned module exchanges, which is often where gross profit is either captured or forfeited. This alignment stacks well with the consensus expectation of a 36.95% year-over-year revenue increase and a 42.20% increase in adjusted EPS. With last quarter’s revenue growth of 43.21% year over year and EPS growth of 44.74% year over year, analysts argue that the company is entering this print from a growth base that is already ahead of many peers on the revenue and earnings lines, albeit with the caveat that last quarter’s EPS and EBIT fell short of estimates on the day. The expectation for this quarter is that the variance narrows as mix and materials availability improve, enabling the estimated EBIT of 198.73 million to translate more efficiently into the EPS estimate of 1.26. The ratio of bullish to bearish takes within the defined window is 100% to 0%. Given that the bulk of recent commentary points to pricing power on parts, improved materials access, and scale benefits in turbine solutions, the consensus interpretation is that the setup favors upward-sloping year-over-year metrics in the quarter and reasonable visibility into the next several periods. As always, the proof point will be whether actuals converge to estimates and whether management’s commentary on procurement, module turns, and cost trajectory signals continuity into the next quarter. Still, on balance, current published opinions into February 18, 2026 cluster around the thesis that both the revenue estimate of 697.41 million and EPS estimate of 1.26 are achievable under the improved operating context, with additional upside possible if module and parts availability translate into higher-than-anticipated margin realization.