This week, the three major indices saw gains: the Shanghai Composite Index rose 2.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased 7.16%, and the ChiNext Index advanced 9.50%. How will the market develop from here? Here’s what institutions have to say.

Shenwan Hongyuan's weekly strategy review and outlook suggests the worst may be behind us. During periods of risk aversion triggered by U.S.-Iran tensions, high-volatility investment opportunities are generally suppressed. However, the peak impact of these tensions on capital markets is passing, and rotation among high-volatility sectors remains viable. In specific terms, technology sectors focused on "reality" that were strong before the conflict still show short-term resilience. Key areas to watch include optical communication, gas turbines, and energy storage. For future rotation, focus is on new energy, new energy vehicles, and export chains. While new energy has been seen as a hedge during low-risk periods with limited effect, it may offer significant opportunities as order confirmations increase, supply-demand dynamics improve, and pricing power shifts overseas. Additionally, new energy could form a structural basis for foreign capital回流 and a reassessment of relative national strengths, creating an upward-trending, profit-generating direction.

Zhongtai Securities explores whether the easing of U.S.-Iran tensions will last and how the situation might evolve. For short-term rebound plays, two types of assets are highlighted: those benefiting from a weaker U.S. dollar, such as gold/non-ferrous metals, and Hong Kong dividend stocks and Hang Seng Tech, which offer high dividends and valuation repair potential. For medium-term safety allocations, focus is on sectors with spillover demand from overseas security needs. Key recommendations include new energy (solar, wind power, energy storage, power equipment) and materials/equipment (coal chemical, minor metals, fiber optic cables, construction machinery). Thematic opportunities in regional infrastructure, particularly oil and gas pipeline projects in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, are noted. Despite recent adjustments, the energy and chemical sector remains supported by medium-term high oil prices; the "anticipatory rally" characteristic of the petrochemical index has seen some correction post-conflict easing, but the logic for elevated oil prices persists.

Guosen Securities believes domestic fundamentals are gradually recovering, with April potentially marking an upward turning point for A-shares. While geopolitical easing is not linear and may see fluctuations, the market has adjusted sufficiently in time and space. Accumulating positive factors domestically and internationally suggest a turnaround in April. Overseas, key U.S. events and a potential U.S. withdrawal from Middle East complexities could ease tensions. Domestically, policy support is driving a gradual recovery in fundamentals, with improvements in both production and demand in January-February supporting market gains.

Central China Securities warns that Middle East conflicts could recur, potentially driving sustained oil price increases and exacerbating global stagflation pressures. If U.S. inflation continues to exceed expectations, the Fed might delay rate cuts or even resume hikes, suppressing global liquidity and risk appetite. The Shanghai Composite is likely to remain volatile; investors should monitor macroeconomic data, overseas liquidity changes, and policy moves. Short-term opportunities are seen in rare earths, consumer electronics, auto parts, and electronic chemicals.

Oriental Securities discusses the implications of eased geopolitical concerns. The direct impact on China's economy is limited due to long-term energy diversification policies. Indirect effects arise from global risk aversion shifts, leading high-risk investors to rotate from tech growth to manufacturing sectors, particularly those related to energy security like solar equipment, wind power, and new energy vehicles.

Guolian Minsheng Securities outlines sector allocation strategies if Middle East conflict intensity decreases. If oil prices decline due to reduced tensions, sectors with costs positively correlated to oil and stock prices negatively correlated would benefit. Drawing from the Iraq war example, increased imports from Iran could boost demand for Chinese automobiles and home appliances.

Xiangcai Securities notes the significant rebound in A-share indices following U.S.-Iran de-escalation and talks. Long-term, China's proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies in the "15th Five-Year Plan" starting in 2026 support steady economic growth and a "slow bull" market. Short-term, Middle East tensions remain a key global market factor; while uncertainty persists, risk appetite has begun to recover. Focus is on tech sectors aligned with the "15th Five-Year Plan," especially AI agent applications related to openclaw.

Zhejiang Shangzhou Securities cautions that while geopolitical improvements have triggered an unexpected global market rebound, the underlying trend remains unchanged. A two-week buffer period suggests continued short-term gains, bringing forward a weekly rebound initially expected after a "second bottom." However, this does not alter the view of range-bound market movement due to significant differences in conflict parties' interests, resistance from the dense trading zone above 4000 points, and technical uncertainties like the ChiNext's "secondary divergence." The market is expected to oscillate within a range, with potential for a turnaround hinging on the underperforming securities sector, which is near historical valuation lows.

Everbright Securities advises seizing the rebound window. Despite negotiation uncertainties, the short-term rebound is underway, with stocks likely to see volatile gains. The market may lean towards growth styles, but U.S.-Iran talks could be bumpy, leading to rotation between growth and defensive styles in April. Economically, a mild recovery with stable expectations is projected. Market sentiment will be heavily influenced by Middle East tensions, fluctuating between "talks" and "conflict," causing significant volatility. Overall, April may see style rotation between growth and defense.

Bohai Securities highlights opportunities amid Fed meeting minutes and geopolitical uncertainty. The resolution path of geopolitical events continues to affect overall risk appetite, with progress uncertainties perturbing market recovery. The strategy emphasizes "stability" as a policy priority; long-term gains come from asset allocation in a stable environment, while excess returns arise from timing opportunities during market transitions from instability to stability. Sector-wise, while geopolitical risks remain, the peak danger may have passed, offering right-side configuration opportunities. With the earnings season approaching, focus on sectors with strong fundamentals: computing power (driven by price increases, supercomputing cluster expectations, and AI agent adoption) and power equipment/pharmaceuticals supported by export logic.