On September 16, the precious metals segment under the Shenwan secondary industry classification showed notable strength during trading. By market close, Wind data indicated the sector had advanced 3.51% with total turnover reaching RMB 13.442 billion and a turnover rate of 2.59%, while main capital inflows amounted to RMB 926 million.

All constituent stocks within the sector finished the session in positive territory. Sichuan Gold surged 6.41% to RMB 52.47, leading the pack, while Chifeng Gold climbed 4.36% to RMB 45.44 and Shanjin International rose 4.20% to RMB 26.52, both ranking among the top performers. Among heavyweight names, Shandong Gold gained 2.90% to RMB 35.13, and Zhongjin Gold advanced 3.02% to RMB 25.22.

The rally in A-share precious metals stocks moved in tandem with the futures market, which also saw broad gains across the precious metals complex. Wind data showed Shanghai gold futures main contract trading at RMB 937.74 per gram, up 1.00%, while Shanghai silver futures main contract rose 2.37% to RMB 15,794 per kilogram. Platinum and palladium futures advanced 1.72% and 1.50%, respectively. In the prior week (September 7-11), COMEX gold and silver had closed the week down 1.9% and 2.7%, respectively. The synchronized rebound in both spot and futures prices today signals improving market sentiment.

The sector's strength stems from both the dissipation of short-term disruptive factors and the presence of long-term structural support. Data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics showed August CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month (versus 0.1% in July) and 3.4% year-over-year, unchanged from July and broadly in line with expectations. However, core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% month-over-month, exceeding the 0.2% consensus forecast, which briefly elevated expectations for a September Fed rate hike. With rate hike expectations now fully priced in and supported by long-term allocation forces such as continued central bank gold purchases, capital is shifting toward buying on dips.

Official reserve asset data released by the People's Bank of China on September 7 showed that as of the end of August 2026, China's gold reserves stood at 76.73 million ounces (approximately 2,386.57 tonnes), an increase of 650,000 ounces (approximately 20.22 tonnes) from the prior month. This marks the 22nd consecutive month of gold accumulation by the central bank since it resumed purchases in November 2024.

Liu Youhua, research director at PaiPaiWang Wealth, noted that the essence of this precious metals rally is the confluence of "short-term negative factors being exhausted plus strengthened long-term allocation logic." Rate hike expectations have been fully priced in, prompting capital to position opportunistically at lower levels. Meanwhile, long-term supportive factors such as central bank gold purchases, weakening dollar credibility, and geopolitical risks remain unchanged, allowing gold's dual attributes as a safe-haven and inflation hedge to continue functioning. He also pointed out that expansion projects are coming online sequentially, with leading companies accelerating capacity expansion. The combination of capacity release and rising gold and silver prices is expected to drive accelerated earnings growth through both volume and price increases.

Fundamentals also provide support. Wind data showed that for the first half of 2026, the Shenwan precious metals sector generated operating revenue of RMB 228.72 billion, up 21.50% year-over-year, while net profit attributable to parent companies reached RMB 15.108 billion, surging 56.29% from the same period last year. Among key companies, Zhongjin Gold posted attributable net profit of RMB 4.357 billion in H1, up 61.67% year-over-year; Chifeng Gold recorded RMB 1.732 billion, up 56.50%; and Shanjin International delivered RMB 2.416 billion, up 51.43%.

Fu Yifu, a special researcher at SuShang Bank, said that in the short term, real interest rates and the U.S. dollar remain key pricing factors for precious metals. As the appeal of non-yielding assets rises, gold price elasticity correspondingly expands. On the profit side, cost structure is the critical differentiator among individual stocks. Companies with self-owned high-grade mines enjoy greater profit elasticity, while those relying on purchased raw materials or smelting/processing operations have smaller elasticity. The industry's overall earnings center is expected to trend higher, though the growth rate still depends on whether gold prices can break out of their current consolidation range.

Looking ahead, research from Founder Securities suggests that even if a September rate hike materializes, it can be viewed as short-term negative news being fully exhausted. Combined with the potential for AI development to drive phased industry inflation and expectations for potential fiscal easing, gold's medium-to-long-term allocation value remains compelling.