Abstract

MercadoLibre will report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 24, 2026 Post Market; this preview compiles last quarter’s performance, consensus forecasts for revenue, profitability, and adjusted EPS, and synthesizes market commentary on segment trends and potential stock drivers.

Market Forecast

Based on the company’s guidance framework and current market models, MercadoLibre’s fourth-quarter revenue is estimated at $8.47 billion, implying 43.95% year-over-year growth, with forecast EBIT at $0.90 billion and estimated adjusted EPS at $11.54, reflecting 45.45% growth year over year. The market expects gross profit margin to remain broadly resilient near the low-40% range and the net profit margin to hold in the mid-single digits versus last year, supporting further operating leverage. The main commerce marketplace and first-party operations are expected to deliver healthy GMV and take-rate support, while logistics scale and seasonal peak demand should aid conversion and margin resilience. Fintech remains seen as the most promising growth vector, driven by payments penetration and credit monetization, with segment revenue last quarter at $3.24 billion and anticipated double-digit year-over-year expansion continuing into the current quarter.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, MercadoLibre delivered revenue of $7.41 billion, a gross profit margin of 43.31%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.42 billion, a net profit margin of 5.68%, and adjusted EPS of $8.32, with revenue growing 39.48% year over year and adjusted EPS rising 6.26% year over year. Net profit dipped quarter over quarter by 19.50% as investments and seasonality weighed on bottom-line progression, yet operating growth stayed solid with broad-based top-line momentum. By segment, Commerce revenue reached $4.17 billion and Fintech revenue totaled $3.24 billion, with commerce continuing to benefit from higher take rates and robust demand while the fintech ecosystem sustained rapid adoption.

Current Quarter Outlook

Commerce platform and logistics

For the core commerce business, holiday-quarter dynamics typically amplify order frequency and average order value, while logistics density improves unit economics. The expected $8.47 billion of consolidated revenue implies a strong seasonal lift from the marketplace and first-party sales, underpinned by expanding ad monetization and improved seller tools that support take-rate durability. Operating leverage is likely to be driven by better utilization of Mercado Envios assets across Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina, which helps offset wage and transportation cost inflation. Investors will look for evidence that the elevated gross margin near the low-40% range can be sustained despite promotional intensity, especially in discretionary categories. A key stock-price swing factor is whether GMV growth converts to revenue at a rate consistent with recent take-rate trends and whether fulfillment throughput reduces per-order costs in line with guidance.

Fintech ecosystem momentum

The fintech segment remains a primary engine for structural growth through payments volume expansion, wallet engagement, and credit yields. With last quarter’s fintech revenue at $3.24 billion and continued traction in merchant acquiring and consumer finance, consensus anticipates double-digit revenue growth year over year into the holiday period. Net interest income and fee-based revenue should benefit from increasing card penetration and cross-border payments, although risk costs remain a watch item as credit origination scales. Management’s underwriting discipline and data advantages are expected to keep delinquency within targeted ranges, supporting further margin expansion in EBIT despite heavy investment in product and compliance. Upside could come from higher-than-expected adoption of new financial services, while any deterioration in credit quality or regulatory friction could pressure profitability.

Profitability drivers and stock sensitivities

Profitability this quarter hinges on balancing growth spending with scale efficiencies. Forecast EBIT of $0.90 billion suggests year-over-year operating margin expansion as fixed-cost absorption improves during peak volumes. The gross margin outlook near low-40% reflects mix effects between first-party commerce and advertising, with ad growth acting as a favorable margin lever. Net margin is projected to remain in the mid-single digits, with room for upside if operating expenses scale more slowly than revenue or if credit losses trend better than expected. Currency movements across key markets and any shifts in consumer confidence in Brazil and Mexico are key macro sensitivities that can alter reported growth and margins. Execution in logistics automation and payment authorization rates will be tracked for signals on sustainable cost-to-serve and revenue yield, which could influence post-print share reactions.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent institutional previews and updated research coverage within the past six months, the balance of opinion skews bullish, with a clear majority expecting upside risk to revenue and operating profit relative to current estimates. Analysts highlighting positive views point to durable commerce monetization, continued payments share gains, and credit yield support that together can deliver above-consensus adjusted EPS. Several well-followed sell-side teams emphasize that advertising growth on the marketplace and better fulfillment density may shield gross margin from seasonal promotions. On the other hand, the minority cautious stance centers on credit cost normalization and FX volatility as potential headwinds to net margin progression. The prevailing perspective anticipates that fourth-quarter results should validate improved operating leverage, reinforcing a constructive stance ahead of 2026 initiatives in logistics and advanced fintech products.