Data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that U.S. import prices surged 1.3% month-over-month in February 2026. This increase significantly exceeded the market's consensus forecast of 0.5% and marked the largest rise in nearly four years, indicating widespread price pressures even before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. An analysis of the data components reveals that rising prices for petroleum and natural gas were the primary drivers behind the overall index increase.

Even after excluding petroleum, import costs still rose by 1.2%, the largest increase since January 2022, primarily driven by higher prices for capital goods and consumer goods excluding automobiles. Concurrently with the climb in import prices, U.S. export prices also showed strong growth, increasing by 1.5% in February, the largest rise since May 2022.

The acceleration in import price growth underscores the growing risk of inflation making a comeback. Businesses are facing pressure from rising energy costs linked to the Iran conflict, while U.S. importers are also grappling with challenges stemming from increased tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. It is important to note that the government's import price data does not incorporate the effects of tariffs.

Compared to February 2025, the import price index excluding petroleum rose by 2.8%, the largest year-over-year increase since October 2022, suggesting that the burden of tariffs is primarily falling on U.S. importers. Meanwhile, the depreciation of the U.S. dollar since the beginning of last year could ultimately make it more expensive for domestic importers to purchase foreign-manufactured goods. A sustained weaker dollar could also bolster demand for U.S.-made goods.

This simultaneous strengthening of both import and export prices aligns closely with the recent trend in the Producer Price Index (PPI), collectively pointing to a serious risk of U.S. inflation re-accelerating after a prolonged period of moderation. Since the conflict erupted at the end of February, global crude oil prices have risen by more than 30%, directly pushing the U.S. national average gasoline price to multi-year highs above $3.84 per gallon, thereby further increasing operational costs for businesses and consumer spending for households.

From a macro policy perspective, the unexpected jump in import prices has made the Federal Reserve's interest rate path more uncertain. As imported cost pressures are likely to pass through to the final consumer end in the coming months, financial markets have broadly adjusted their previously optimistic expectations for interest rate cuts. Mainstream institutions now believe that, facing potential secondary inflation risks and extreme geopolitical uncertainty, the Federal Reserve may maintain a high-interest-rate policy for a longer period in the short term, potentially delaying the start of rate cuts until after September, to prevent inflation expectations from spiraling out of control again.