Abstract

TC Energy will report its quarterly results on February 13, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes consensus projections for revenue, profitability metrics, and adjusted EPS, alongside recent business developments and dominant analyst perspectives since January 01, 2026.

Market Forecast

For the current quarter, projections indicate TC Energy’s revenue at USD 4.13 billion, gross profit margin near recent levels, net profit margin tracking mid-teens, and adjusted EPS at USD 0.95, with year-over-year growth for revenue of 15.91% and adjusted EPS decline of 4.91%. The main business highlights center on natural gas pipelines, expected to continue driving the revenue mix through regulated, contracted cash flows and incremental capacity additions across core systems. The most promising segment is natural gas pipelines, with recent revenue of USD 3.56 billion and a high single-digit to low double-digit YoY outlook tied to expansion and tariff adjustments.

Last Quarter Review

TC Energy’s previous quarter delivered revenue of USD 3.70 billion, gross profit margin of 67.47%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of USD 0.64 billion, net profit margin of 17.20%, and adjusted EPS of USD 0.77, with revenue down 9.28% YoY and adjusted EPS down 25.24% YoY. A notable highlight was resilient midstream contribution despite comparably lower throughput variability, supported by long-term, take-or-pay contract structures that helped stabilize gross margins. Main business performance underscored natural gas pipelines at USD 3.56 billion revenue, complemented by energy at USD 0.16 billion, while corporate and eliminations were negative at USD 0.02 billion.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Natural Gas Pipelines as Core Earnings Driver

The natural gas pipeline network remains the foundation of TC Energy’s earnings profile this quarter. With contracted capacity and cost-of-service frameworks across key corridors, revenue visibility is supported by existing shipper agreements and tariff mechanisms that adjust for capital recovery and inflation. Incremental volumes on expansion projects and system optimizations can lift throughput stability, translating to steady EBIT contribution even with market price noise. The revenue forecast of USD 4.13 billion suggests consolidated growth, with gross profit margin likely anchored by the historical 60.00%–70.00% range, reflecting a mix of regulated returns and efficient operations. Mid-teens net profit margin guidance aligns with the prior quarter’s 17.20%, implying consistent bottom-line conversion. The adjusted EPS estimate of USD 0.95, down 4.91% YoY, indicates a cautious stance on unit profitability due to potential higher interest expense or timing of cost recoveries.

Growth Potential in Expansion and System Optimization

The most promising opportunity appears within the ongoing natural gas infrastructure build-out and optimization strategies. Capital projects that add compression, debottleneck constraints, and extend pipe laterals can secure fee-based returns as shippers lock in capacity to meet downstream demand. The recent revenue base of USD 3.56 billion for natural gas pipelines underscores the scale and resilience of this segment; near-term YoY uplift likely emerges from tariff escalators and incremental contracted volumes coming online. Any realized efficiency gains in operations should sustain a healthy gross margin profile, while disciplined capex phasing could mitigate the EPS drag suggested by current estimates. Market sensitivity remains tied to regulatory timelines and in-service dates, but the contracted nature of volumes provides a buffer against commodity price fluctuations, keeping EBIT forecasts robust at USD 2.07 billion, up an estimated 18.99% YoY.

Key Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Investors are focused on the interplay between revenue growth and margin stability in the face of financing and regulatory factors. A higher consolidated revenue base, combined with stable gross margins around 67.47%, would validate the pipeline-led resilience narrative and support cash flow expectations. However, adjusted EPS at USD 0.95 implies headwinds from financing costs or depreciation cycles as new assets enter service, making net profit conversion a focal point. The quarter-on-quarter net profit change last quarter was down 26.02%, so any evidence of sequential stabilization will be closely watched. Execution on project milestones, clarity on rate-case outcomes, and visibility on contracted capacity renewals will be pivotal for sentiment; beats on EBIT or revenue relative to the 4.13 billion and 2.07 billion guideposts would likely be viewed as supportive for the stock.

Analyst Opinions

Recent commentary skews cautiously positive, with the majority expecting a constructive quarter driven by stable pipeline cash flows and better EBIT support, while acknowledging the EPS estimate modestly below prior-year levels. Sell-side notes emphasize contracted natural gas infrastructure as the anchor for revenue visibility and point to the EBIT estimate of USD 2.07 billion, which, if met, would mark an 18.99% YoY improvement. Several institutions cite the durability of regulated returns and the offsetting nature of tariff escalators against cost inflation as reasons for confidence in revenue and gross margin stability, with more guarded views regarding net income due to interest expense. The bullish perspective expects revenue near USD 4.13 billion, mid-teens net profit margins comparable to the last quarter’s 17.20%, and adjusted EPS around USD 0.95; these commentators highlight progress on system expansions and contracted capacity coming online as catalysts that could produce a modest top-line beat. Overall, the dominant stance anticipates steady operations and incremental improvements in EBIT, leaving the stock’s near-term path sensitive to financing dynamics and timing of project completions.