As high-speed rail siphons off passengers from short- and medium-haul routes, long-haul and cross-border routes have become an unbreakable moat for civil aviation.

Traveling between Beijing and Shanghai, would you take a four-hour high-speed train or a two-hour flight? Answers vary from person to person. Some people fear flying and prefer high-speed rail; others are high-tier airline members who favor civil aviation services; some appreciate the smooth ride of high-speed rail with a stable network connection throughout, making it suitable for studying or working; others find that discounted flights are no more expensive than high-speed rail and decisively buy plane tickets.

The Beijing-Shanghai line, roughly 1,100 kilometers long, is China's most profitable transportation "golden corridor" and a key battleground where high-speed rail and civil aviation compete fiercely.

For a long time, academia and industry have generally regarded 800 kilometers as the boundary between civil aviation and high-speed rail competition 鈥?within 800 kilometers, high-speed rail holds absolute dominance, while beyond 800 kilometers is civil aviation's territory. However, this traditional divide is being rewritten by an increasingly comprehensive high-speed rail network.

Airbus, the aviation manufacturing giant, pointed out in its latest research released in September that high-speed rail operating time matters more than distance and has become the decisive factor for passenger travel. In areas reachable by high-speed rail within four hours, civil aviation's market share declines are more pronounced. Overall, high-speed rail diverts about 10% of civil aviation's passenger traffic.

As short- and medium-haul routes are diverted by high-speed rail, long-haul and cross-border routes have become an unbreakable moat for civil aviation. Data provided to a reporter by Umetrip, a third-party civil aviation data platform, shows that in 2025 the average domestic flight distance reached 1,262 kilometers, compared with 1,163 kilometers in 2019. The proportion of flights on routes under 800 kilometers has been declining year by year, from 25.3% in 2019 to 18.1% in 2025. Meanwhile, the proportion of flights on routes over 1,200 kilometers rose from 42.4% to 49.2% over the same period, reflecting a structural adjustment in the civil aviation industry toward focusing on longer distances.

High-Speed Rail Diverts 10% of Civil Aviation Passenger Traffic

For a long time, academia and industry have habitually drawn the line at 800 kilometers 鈥?inside the line is high-speed rail, outside is civil aviation. This judgment is being simultaneously revised by intensive research and rapidly changing market realities.

According to statistics from the Civil Aviation Administration of China, among all flights in China in 2025, those covering 1,000 to 1,500 kilometers accounted for the highest proportion at 37.09%, followed by those covering 1,500 to 2,000 kilometers at over 20%, indicating that medium- and long-distance flights make up a significant portion nationwide.

Airbus's latest research released in September 2026 also reveals the pattern of increasingly longer civil aviation distances: for short-haul segments of 600 to 700 kilometers and below, aviation passenger growth is maintained at only 1% to 3%; while in medium- and long-haul markets of 900 to 1,000 kilometers and above, aviation still maintains high growth rates of 7% to 11.3%; in markets with flight distances of 1,200 kilometers, 1,300 kilometers, 1,400 kilometers and 1,500 kilometers, aviation passenger volume growth rates reached 9.2%, 9.1%, 10% and 11.3% respectively 鈥?the longer the distance, the higher the growth rate.

Based on this, Francois Cabaret, Airbus's head of global aviation market forecasting, told a reporter that about 10% of aviation passenger traffic will be diverted by high-speed rail over the next 20 years, and the aviation industry's demand for new aircraft will decline somewhat. Airbus slightly adjusted its forecast for new single-aisle aircraft deliveries in China over the next 20 years, from 7,950 last year to 7,480, a net reduction of 470 aircraft.

In central and eastern China, where high-speed rail networks are dense, route cancellations are no longer a novelty. In the latest case: the Xi'an-Wuhan high-speed rail opened in June 2026, shortening the shortest travel time between Wuhan and Xi'an to 2 hours and 41 minutes. In the first month of operation, in the passenger transport structure between Wuhan and Xi'an, railway's share rose from 74.4% to 80.2%, while civil aviation's share dropped from 15.8% to 7.2%.

Ma Ming, general manager of the marketing department of China Eastern Airlines' Wuhan branch, admitted frankly that the company's Wuhan-Xi'an flight ticket prices fell by 20%, flight volume decreased by 47.4% compared with the same period last year, and capacity and passenger volume dropped by 55.9% and 55.6% respectively.

As the high-speed rail network continues to expand at an accelerated pace, from 48,000 kilometers in 2025 to a target of 60,000 kilometers by 2030, a new development in recent years is that provinces that previously had no high-speed rail now have it, directly impacting the civil aviation market. Yunnan is a typical case.

Due to rugged terrain, the cost of building highways and railways in southwestern provinces like Yunnan was extremely high in the past, making them highly dependent on civil aviation development. Intra-provincial short- and medium-haul markets such as Kunming-Dali were quite prosperous. But as newly built high-speed rail networks such as the Kunming-Dali-Lijiang line and the Chengdu-Kunming double-track line continue to extend, with high-speed rail travel times shortened to within 2 hours, the civil aviation Kunming-Dali route, which once had more than 20 daily flights, has gradually seen its passenger traffic reduced to one flight per day, and the Kunming-Guiyang route has even been suspended.

A senior executive of a Hong Kong airline revealed to a reporter that the company opened a Hong Kong-Guiyang route in recent years. The high-speed rail journey between the two places takes 5 hours, but there is no direct flight route. Initial passenger traffic expectations were good, but after opening, it was found that tourism and business travel passenger traffic could not support operations, and the route was canceled less than a year after opening.

The impact is not limited to the route level. Data shows that passenger traffic at Kunming Changshui Airport, affected by the systemic contraction of the short- and medium-haul aviation market, fell from 6th place nationally in 2019 to 10th place in 2025. Although Changshui Airport's passenger traffic is still growing, achieving 49.706 million passenger trips in 2025 with a growth rate of 5.4%, the growth rate continues to be below the national average.

High-Speed Rail Expansion Does Not Equal Civil Aviation Contraction

It should be pointed out that the expansion of high-speed rail does not simply equate to the contraction of civil aviation. During the 2026 summer travel season, railways carried a cumulative 954 million passenger trips, while civil aviation passenger volume reached 151 million, with the combined travel scale of the two exceeding 1.1 billion passenger trips, both hitting record highs for the same period, indicating that China's travel market "cake" is still continuously growing.

Airbus also predicts that despite being diverted by 10% by high-speed rail, China's aviation passenger turnover will continue to climb at a compound annual growth rate of 5.2%, requiring more than 8,800 new passenger aircraft over the next 20 years. The average number of annual flights per capita in China will increase from 0.5 in 2025 to 1.4 in 2045.

"High-speed rail is actually a good thing for civil aviation," Li Cunmei, general manager of Airbus China's marketing department, gave two reasons to a reporter: First, high-speed rail cultivates people's travel habits. First-time travelers may initially take high-speed rail, but later become civil aviation passengers. Second, the high-speed rail network concentrates passengers from small and medium-sized cities to hub airports, making airlines' ability to gather passengers stronger.

A latest study also debunks the broad claim that "high-speed rail diverts civil aviation." Yin Hongpan and Cui Yuchen from Southwest University's School of Economics and Management summarized data from 35 central cities across China from 2002 to 2023, treating the opening of long-distance high-speed rail in six major economic zones as a natural experiment. The conclusion is: the direction of high-speed rail's impact on civil aviation varies by region 鈥?aviation passenger traffic in the central region is significantly suppressed, high-speed rail in the Chengdu-Chongqing area actually promotes aviation growth, while the three major coastal economic zones and the northeast region show no significant changes.

The study points out that the root of the difference lies in location: the closer a city is to the central node of the high-speed rail network and the denser the surrounding central cities, the easier it is for high-speed rail to form networked coverage, and the deeper the degree of aviation passenger traffic interception. Conversely, where high-speed rail cannot form effective radiation, aviation can maintain its advantage.

Under this logic, four types of air-rail patterns have formed nationwide: in coastal economic zones such as Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, the Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao, high-speed rail and aviation each cover travel needs at different distances, forming a "rail-air parallel" pattern without mutual squeezing. In the Chengdu-Chongqing area, because high-speed rail converges passenger traffic from surrounding small and medium-sized cities to hub airports in Chengdu and Chongqing, it presents a "rail assists air, air grows stronger" pattern. The central region, affected by the dense high-speed rail network, sees aviation passenger traffic significantly diverted, manifesting as "rail strong, air weak." The northeast region, due to limited regional travel demand, sees high-speed rail and aviation substituting for each other in the same passenger pool, forming a "rail-air role reversal."

Both modes of transportation have their own unique advantages. Take the busiest Beijing-Shanghai line 鈥?high-speed rail and civil aviation run in parallel without conflict, with high-speed rail departing as frequently as every 4 minutes and flights also flying between four major airports at minute intervals.

Overall, civil aviation's advantage lies in long distances. When travel distance exceeds 1,200 kilometers (such as Beijing to Urumqi, or Guangzhou to Beijing), civil aviation's efficiency advantage becomes overwhelming. In cross-border and international travel, air transport plays an irreplaceable role.

Civil aviation also has deep accumulated experience in frequent flyer services. A business traveler who travels frequently told a reporter that she prefers civil aviation for her travels, valuing the airline's points system. As a high-tier airline member, she can use priority channels at airports and dine in lounges, with travel comfort noticeably higher than high-speed rail, while accumulated points can be used to redeem tickets. "I can now redeem a round-trip ticket to Europe."

To compete for high-quality business passengers, railway departments have frequently "learned from" civil aviation in recent years. From introducing high-speed rail "quiet cars," frequent flyer programs with point redemption for tickets, to business class offering meals comparable to airline first class, exclusive waiting lounges, and luggage check-in "light travel" services, high-speed rail is eroding civil aviation's business travel base through refined services.

The ticket price landscape is also undergoing subtle changes. In May 2026, the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway announced ticket prices would increase by up to 20%, with the highest second-class seat fare from Shanghai Station to Beijing South Station rising from 669 yuan to 802.8 yuan, breaking through 800 yuan for the first time. Meanwhile, the lowest economy class tax-inclusive fare on the Beijing-Shanghai route during off-peak travel season was only just over 400 yuan, and after adding airport construction and fuel surcharges, the total price was basically on par with high-speed rail second-class seats. High-speed rail price increases and airline ticket discounts running in parallel make price competition in the short- and medium-haul market more complex, with passengers' choices depending more on a comprehensive weighing of time, price, and convenience.

Integrated Air-Rail Transport Is the Way Forward

Early research focused heavily on substitution effects and market share competition, but the research trend in recent years is shifting toward cooperation mechanisms and intermodal efficiency, with the industry gradually forming a consensus 鈥?integrated air-rail transport is the way forward.

Francois Cabaret's core logic is to channel hinterland passenger traffic from high-speed rail coverage areas into aviation hubs, converting short-haul high-speed rail passengers into long-haul aviation passengers, thereby creating incremental demand rather than competing for existing passenger traffic. He cited Nanjing as an example: passengers take high-speed rail to Shanghai Hongqiao hub, then transfer to a flight to Urumqi 鈥?this is the optimal efficiency solution.

Internationally, integrated air-rail transport around major hubs is also becoming increasingly popular. Paris Charles de Gaulle Airport in France has a high-speed rail station within its terminal building, with more and more passengers choosing domestic high-speed rail to connect with long-haul international flights. Frankfurt Airport in Germany is also one of Europe's largest aviation hubs, and its railway station connecting various parts of Germany is likewise located within the airport terminal, facilitating passenger circulation.

The concept of integrated air-rail transport is accelerating its implementation in China. In 2025, the Civil Aviation Administration and China State Railway Group jointly issued the "List of Key Tasks for Promoting High-Quality Development of 'Integrated Air-Rail Transport' (2025-2027)," clarifying the construction of comprehensive transfer centers and the promotion of "one-ticket purchase, one-ID passage" and other intermodal models. The railway 12306 app has already achieved system connectivity with six airlines including Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern, allowing passengers to "purchase once, pay once."

However, the pain points of integrated air-rail transport remain prominent. Wang Yu, chairman of Spring Airlines, found that "high-speed rail stations and hub airports are often far apart and cannot be reached directly. Even if there is a connecting express line between them, multiple transfers are required, which is extremely inconvenient." He suggested incorporating the strengthening of air-rail "two-network integration" into the national "15th Five-Year Plan" development plan, promoting "multi-station integration" in hub cities, and locating railway "airport stations" on railway trunk lines as much as possible.

Most large transportation hubs built in recent years have considered integrated air-rail transport. For example, the Wuhan Tianhe Station air-rail intermodal main passenger station will begin construction within 2026 and is expected to be put into use in the second half of 2028. Air-rail intermodal hubs in Shenzhen, Shanghai, Nanchang and other places are also in planning and construction, generally aiming to achieve air-rail transfers within 5 minutes.

Beyond the objective limitations of location, the lack of unified service standards also constitutes an obstacle. A reporter learned that high-speed rail and civil aviation belong to different operating entities, and the nationwide penetration rate of integrated services such as "one ticket to the end, through-checked baggage, and mutual delay protection" is still limited, with deep-level integration of information and ticketing systems still awaiting a breakthrough.

Taking Shanghai, which has done relatively well in integrated air-rail transport, as an example, China Eastern Airlines' air-rail intermodal transfer center at Shanghai Hongqiao Station served over 32,000 passengers and completed over 20,000 baggage transfers in 2025. But services still have room for expansion: currently only China Eastern passengers can check in baggage in advance at Hongqiao high-speed rail station, while passengers on other airlines' flights still need to carry their checked baggage to Pudong Airport before checking it in.

Li Cunmei emphasized that the diverting effect of high-speed rail on civil aviation should not be overemphasized. The key is for both sides to work together to grow the travel market 鈥?only when the cake is bigger are there more opportunities to share it. The question now is no longer "who replaces whom between high-speed rail and civil aviation," but "at what distance, in what scenario, and under what institutional arrangements can the two collaboratively provide better travel efficiency."