Earning Preview: AdaptHealth Corp. this quarter’s revenue is expected to increase by 0.29%, and institutional views are positive

Abstract

AdaptHealth Corp. will announce quarterly results on February 24, 2026 Pre-Market, and consensus-style forecasts point to stable revenue and stronger earnings momentum, setting expectations for a modest top-line increase, expanding EBIT, and a sharply higher EPS year over year.

Market Forecast

Forecasts for the current quarter indicate revenue of $831.61 million, implying a year-over-year increase of 0.29%. Expected EPS is $0.35, up 42.28% year over year, while EBIT is projected at $89.60 million, up 14.49% year over year; margin forecasts were not disclosed in the available forecast set.

The company’s core revenue engine centers on durable equipment and supplies anchored by sleep therapy and respiratory offerings, with operating discipline likely to be a focal point given the strong EPS growth implied by forecasts relative to near-flat revenue. The most promising segment this quarter appears to be sleep therapy devices, given its scale and contribution; it generated $354.84 million last quarter, accounting for 43.26% of segment revenue mix, with year-over-year growth for this specific segment not disclosed in the tool data.

Last Quarter Review

Last quarter, AdaptHealth Corp. delivered revenue of $820.31 million, a gross profit margin of 21.98%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $24.51 million, a net profit margin of 2.99%, and adjusted EPS of $0.16; revenue rose 1.79% year over year, adjusted EPS increased 6.67% year over year, and EBIT was $61.73 million, down 2.77% year over year.

A notable financial highlight since the last report is continued balance sheet improvement, including year-to-date term-loan prepayments cited by a major credit rating agency on November 18, 2025, followed by an issuer-level upgrade by another agency on January 27, 2026, signaling improved financial flexibility heading into the print. On the operational side, sleep therapy devices contributed $354.84 million last quarter (43.26% of revenue), respiratory $177.00 million (21.58%), diabetes $150.08 million (18.29%), and home health $138.41 million (16.87%), with segment-level year-over-year growth not disclosed in the dataset.

Current Quarter Outlook

Core Revenue Engine: Sleep Therapy and Respiratory

For the to-be-reported quarter, the headline revenue estimate of $831.61 million implies a marginal top-line step-up of 0.29% year over year, yet the earnings profile is expected to carry more of the load. The EPS estimate of $0.35 indicates 42.28% year-over-year growth, which suggests a mix of operating leverage, improved cost execution, and possibly lower financing costs relative to last year, given the company’s recent actions on the balance sheet. EBIT forecast growth of 14.49% year over year to $89.60 million reinforces an expectation that profitability is set to expand even as revenue holds close to last year’s level.

Within the revenue base, sleep therapy devices and respiratory are the principal contributors. Together, these two areas represented roughly two-thirds of last quarter’s revenue, with sleep therapy devices at $354.84 million and respiratory at $177.00 million. Given this scale, even incremental margin improvement in these categories can meaningfully influence consolidated profitability. The last quarter’s gross margin was 21.98%, and while there is no formal gross margin forecast in the dataset, investors will focus on whether pricing, procurement efficiency, and logistics discipline can keep unit economics resilient during a period of only modest revenue growth. The prior quarter’s net profit margin stood at 2.99% and GAAP net profit grew 67.02% sequentially, which positions management’s updated commentary on cost containment and operating expense pacing as an important swing factor for earnings trajectory. If the company demonstrates that cost reductions are durable, the implied spread between modest revenue growth and robust EPS growth could sustain positive operating leverage into the outlook period.

Highest-Potential Business: Sleep Therapy Devices

Sleep therapy devices, at $354.84 million last quarter, remain the largest single revenue pillar and arguably the most impactful area for near-term profit leverage. Because of its size, small improvements in procurement terms, product mix, or service efficiency can create disproportionate effects on gross profit dollars relative to other segments. The forecasted uptick in EBIT and EPS suggests the company is positioned to convert a stable demand environment into better earnings, which often occurs when the highest-revenue category benefits from tighter operational execution.

With segment-level year-over-year growth rates not disclosed in the dataset, investors will likely anchor on revenue mix and dollar contribution to infer where scale benefits are most likely to materialize. The steadier the sleep therapy category’s volumes and service adherence metrics, the greater the potential for fixed-cost absorption and expense discipline to show through the P&L. A focus on inventory turns, rental fleet utilization, and claims-processing efficiency can also support margin; these levers tend to be most powerful in the largest category, which is why the market often views this segment as the clearest route to sustaining the forecasted EPS growth. While the revenue estimate for the quarter implies a muted top-line change, even slightly improved pricing realization or a favorable shift in product/service mix within sleep therapy can help reinforce the projected earnings expansion.

Stock Price Drivers This Quarter

Three datapoints appear most likely to drive the stock reaction around the release. First, the relationship between revenue and profitability will be closely scrutinized. With revenue essentially flat year over year, the key question is how the company plans to maintain or expand gross profit dollars and operating margin. The previous quarter’s gross margin of 21.98% and net margin of 2.99% provide a baseline; better-than-expected margin performance could validate the EPS estimate of $0.35 and the EBIT estimate of $89.60 million, while any shortfall could challenge the implied operating leverage story.

Second, balance sheet progress and financing costs will matter for the earnings model. Recent term-loan prepayments and credit-rating upgrades suggest a path to reduced funding costs and enhanced liquidity flexibility. Given the EPS growth estimate of 42.28% year over year against subdued revenue growth, lower interest expense versus last year would be consistent with the forecasted earnings profile. Investors will watch any commentary on net leverage, interest coverage, and future capital allocation priorities for hints on the sustainability of this earnings cadence.

Third, segment mix and cash conversion will be focal points. The revenue composition last quarter—sleep therapy devices at 43.26% of revenue, respiratory at 21.58%, diabetes at 18.29%, and home health at 16.87%—indicates that improvements in the two largest segments could quickly bolster cash generation. The quality of earnings will be assessed through working-capital dynamics and the cadence of cash collections; stronger cash conversion tends to reinforce confidence in EPS durability. If management can pair stable top-line results with firmer margins and disciplined working capital, the stock could respond favorably to confirmation of the forecast profile.

Beyond the core P&L, the sequential expansion in GAAP net profit last quarter, up 67.02% quarter on quarter, sets a constructive tone for the near term. That improvement provides context for the projected year-over-year EPS gains, indicating that the company may be entering the quarter with better operating momentum than it had earlier in the year. The degree to which that momentum is visible in the quantitative guidance and in management’s qualitative commentary will likely shape investor conviction in both the remainder of the year and the medium-term outlook.

Analyst Opinions

Institutional sentiment in the covered period skews positive. Based on the collected items, the ratio of bullish to bearish views is 100% bullish, with two notable credit-rating actions highlighting improving financial flexibility. On November 18, 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded AdaptHealth Corp.’s senior unsecured debt to BB- from B+, citing $225.00 million in year-to-date prepayments of the senior secured term loan A due in 2029 and improved recovery prospects in a hypothetical default scenario. On January 27, 2026, Moody’s upgraded AdaptHealth Corp.’s Corporate Family Rating to Ba2 from Ba3 and raised the senior unsecured notes rating to B1 from B2, reflecting strengthened balance sheet dynamics and a reduced risk profile.

These actions provide timely validation of the company’s deleveraging progress and have implications for equity investors in the near term. Upward credit migration can translate into lower borrowing costs over time, enhanced access to capital, and more predictable liquidity—factors that support the forecasted EPS growth when revenue growth is modest. The combination of S&P’s focus on improved recovery prospects and Moody’s recognition of balance sheet strengthening suggests that the risk-adjusted return profile is improving from a credit perspective. Equity investors often interpret such developments as supportive of valuation multiples, particularly when they coincide with forecasted EBIT and EPS expansion.

From a preview standpoint, the institutional tilt toward constructive credit views underscores what the market appears to expect in the upcoming report: resilient operating execution, measured top-line performance, and better earnings conversion. If the company confirms or exceeds the $0.35 EPS forecast and the $89.60 million EBIT forecast while keeping revenue close to $831.61 million, that would align with the direction indicated by the rating upgrades. Conversely, any miss on profitability relative to these expectations could invite renewed scrutiny, given that the earnings trajectory is the primary driver of the positive institutional stance.

The focus now shifts to how management frames margin durability, expense run-rate, and capital structure prospects on February 24, 2026. Clarity on gross margin relative to last quarter’s 21.98%, commentary on net margin progression from a 2.99% base, and updates on further debt reduction or refinancing plans will help determine whether the current-quarter forecasts translate into a sustained, credible earnings path. With institutional views positive and the forecast profile emphasizing EPS growth over revenue growth, investors are likely to weigh the quality and repeatability of earnings improvements as the decisive factor in their near-term assessment of AdaptHealth Corp.