Abstract

Organon & Co will report on February 12, 2026 Pre-Market, with market forecasts pointing to lower revenue and softer profitability this quarter, while investors gauge the trajectory of women’s health and biosimilars momentum.

Market Forecast

Consensus for the current quarter indicates revenue at $1.54 billion, a year-over-year decline of 3.45%, with EBIT estimated at $0.38 billion and adjusted EPS at $0.73, implying a year-over-year decrease of 15.43%. The company’s margin mix is expected to soften versus last year, and forecasts point to year-over-year declines in both EBIT and EPS amid currency and product-cycle pressures. Organon & Co’s core portfolio is projected to see stable contribution from renowned brands and steady performance in women’s health alongside incremental biosimilars growth, though pricing headwinds and geographic mix could weigh on gross margin and net profitability this quarter. The biosimilars franchise remains the most promising engine, supported by continued uptake in key markets despite pricing pressure; revenue mix is expected to be modestly favorable year-over-year, though specific segment forecasts are not disclosed.

Last Quarter Review

In the prior quarter, Organon & Co delivered revenue of $1.60 billion, a gross profit margin of 54.24%, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $0.16 billion with a net profit margin of 9.99%, and adjusted EPS of $1.01, all reflecting year-over-year improvements. Net profit grew 10.34% quarter-on-quarter, marking improved profitability alongside disciplined cost controls and balanced growth across the portfolio. By business, revenue composition was led by Established Brands at $0.96 billion, Women’s Health at $0.43 billion, Biosimilars at $0.20 billion, and Other at $0.02 billion; performance was underpinned by resilient branded demand and ongoing expansion in women’s health and biosimilars, though detailed year-over-year segment rates were not provided.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main business trajectory

Organon & Co’s mainstay portfolio of established brands is expected to anchor revenue this quarter, though forecasts imply a year-over-year decline at the consolidated level. The expected revenue of $1.54 billion suggests moderation versus the prior quarter, and the projected adjusted EPS of $0.73 implies lower operating leverage through the P&L. Margin compression is likely to stem from channel and geographic mix combined with ongoing list-to-net dynamics in several mature therapies. Gross profit margin is unlikely to meaningfully exceed the last observed 54.24% given anticipated pricing pressure and the forecasted declines in EBIT and EPS. Currency could also trim reported growth, with translation effects disproportionately influencing profitability in ex-U.S. markets. Management’s commercial priorities—sustaining cash generation from established brands while reinvesting into higher-growth vectors—remain intact, but the near-term setup suggests tighter spreads between revenue and adjusted earnings.

Women’s health momentum

Women’s health continues to be central to Organon & Co’s differentiation and medium-term growth, even as near-term forecasts flag a softer quarter. The segment registered $0.43 billion last quarter and is positioned to benefit from continued adoption of contraceptives and fertility products in select markets. However, quarter-to-quarter variability is possible due to stocking patterns, public tender timing, and regional reimbursement cycles. The revenue guide embedded in consensus implies a cautious stance on volume expansion through calendar Q4 2025, and points to limited price contribution given competitive intensity in key categories. Strategic execution—expanding access, deepening physician engagement, and targeted launches—will be important to offset price headwinds. Over the coming quarters, a gradual shift in mix favoring innovative women’s health assets could support stabilization in gross margin, though this benefit may not be fully visible in the current quarter.

Biosimilars as a growth lever

Biosimilars remain the company’s most promising long-term growth lever and an important offset to declines in the established brands portfolio. Last quarter’s $0.20 billion contribution underscores growing traction in oncology and immunology biosimilars, albeit from a smaller base. The current quarter’s forecasted revenue decline suggests that biosimilars growth may not be sufficient to fully counteract pressures in other areas, but product adoption curves in major markets remain favorable. Pricing dynamics in biosimilars typically compress over time as competition intensifies; however, volume gains and market share capture can support revenue even amid price erosion. Near-term, the company’s ability to improve penetration in hospital and specialty pharmacy channels will be a key determinant of segment performance. Over time, portfolio breadth and timely tender wins should help this franchise contribute a higher proportion of revenue, with potential upside to consolidated margins if supply chain efficiencies and scale benefits materialize.

Key stock-price swing factors this quarter

Investors will focus on whether revenue lands near the $1.54 billion consensus and how the gross margin compares to recent levels. Any variance in adjusted EPS from the $0.73 estimate will likely drive outsized share reaction, especially if operating expenses or one-time items deviate from modeled levels. Commentary on pricing in established brands and the pace of biosimilar adoption will be closely scrutinized for implications on the 2026 run-rate. Watch for updates on channel inventory normalization and tender outcomes in international markets, which can create short-term volatility in reported revenue. Finally, management color on capital allocation and deleveraging may influence sentiment around equity valuation multiples if cash conversion remains solid despite near-term headwinds.

Analyst Opinions

Across recent analyst and institutional previews, the balance of views is cautious, with a majority expecting a soft print relative to the year-ago period and signaling downside risk to margins given mix and pricing. Reports from multiple sell-side desks point to consensus revenue of roughly $1.54 billion and EPS near $0.73, with the tone emphasizing potential pressure on gross margin and EBIT. Commentaries highlight that while women’s health and biosimilars provide strategic optionality, the established brands portfolio faces ongoing erosion and pricing constraints, setting up a more conservative near-term outlook. Notably, ratings updates in the period skew neutral to underperform, citing limited catalysts before visibility improves on biosimilar scale-up and stabilization of mature franchises. The prevailing view is that execution on cost discipline and cash flow will be key to defending valuation as revenue growth pauses this quarter; any positive surprise on margins or segment growth rates could prompt a reassessment, but the consensus baseline remains guarded heading into the print.