Abstract

Origin Bancorp will report its quarterly results on October 28, 2025 Post Market; our preview synthesizes the latest company guidance and market expectations to frame revenue, margins, EPS, and business mix outlook for the quarter.

Market Forecast

Consensus for this quarter points to total revenue of $100.05 million, EBIT of $37.37 million, and adjusted EPS of $0.85, with year-over-year growth rates of 14.02%, 49.49%, and 64.82%, respectively. Company-level projections imply stable net profit margin and modest improvement in efficiency; gross profit margin guidance was not disclosed, while net profit margin is expected to align with recent levels. The core community banking business remains the primary revenue driver and is projected to maintain growth momentum supported by deposit mix stabilization and loan repricing. The most promising segment is community banking, with prior-quarter revenue of $109.83 million and year-over-year growth of 20.97%.

Last Quarter Review

Origin Bancorp’s last quarter delivered total revenue of $109.83 million, GAAP net profit attributable to the parent company of $8.62 million, a net profit margin of 12.16%, and adjusted EPS of $0.50, with year-over-year growth of -16.67% for adjusted EPS; gross profit margin was not disclosed. Quarter-on-quarter net profit declined by 41.13% as credit costs normalized and operating expenses reflected strategic investments. The community banking segment generated $109.83 million in revenue, rising 20.97% year over year on stronger net interest income and stable fee contributions.

Current Quarter Outlook

Community Banking Revenue and Margin Dynamics

Community banking remains the central earnings engine, with revenue guided to $100.05 million for the quarter, reflecting anticipated normalization from last quarter’s elevated net interest income. The spread environment suggests incremental stabilization in net interest margin as deposit pricing pressures ease sequentially. Repricing of variable-rate commercial credits and disciplined loan growth are set to underpin interest income, while management attention to noninterest expense may support operating leverage. Credit quality trends, including nonperforming loan levels and net charge-offs, are likely to be the key swing factors determining quarterly margin outcome. Balance-sheet mix — particularly core deposits versus higher-cost time deposits — will influence funding costs and the net profit margin outcome.

Most Promising Growth Driver: Community Banking Through Loan Mix Optimization

The company’s most promising growth avenue within community banking is loan mix optimization targeting commercial and industrial relationships and stabilized commercial real estate exposures. A focus on risk-adjusted growth, with priority on secured credits and relationship-based lending, should support yield without materially elevating risk. Incremental fee income from treasury services and mortgage banking activity could add diversification, though the quarter’s core driver remains net interest income from repriced assets. If asset yields continue to outpace deposit cost inflation, EBIT growth of 49.49% year over year to $37.37 million appears attainable, even with lower reported revenue than the prior quarter. Execution on expense control, including technology and compliance spending, will determine the durability of margin expansion.

Stock Price Sensitivities This Quarter

The stock’s near-term reaction will hinge on reported EPS versus the $0.85 estimate, along with qualitative commentary on credit, deposit flows, and margin trajectory. Any sign of accelerating net charge-offs or elevated provisioning would challenge the net profit margin outlook and weigh on sentiment. Conversely, evidence of core deposit growth, improved noninterest income stability, and operating expense discipline could support a constructive post-earnings move. Management’s guidance on loan growth pace and the balance between commercial and consumer exposures will be scrutinized for sustainability. The interaction between funding costs and asset yields remains the central variable for investors assessing earnings resilience in the current quarter.

Analyst Opinions

Most recent institutional commentary leans cautiously positive, with the majority of analysts expecting sequential margin stabilization and year-over-year EPS growth toward $0.85. Views emphasize improving funding cost trends and disciplined credit underwriting as supportive of EBIT expansion to $37.37 million. Analysts highlight that deposit betas appear to be plateauing, which could allow net interest margin to hold or expand modestly, while expense control provides a secondary tailwind. The constructive stance remains contingent on benign credit outcomes and maintenance of core deposit franchise strength; a downside scenario would center on unexpected provisioning or mix shifts toward higher-cost funding.