A review of the weekend's positive developments and the latest market assessments from ten major brokerages.

Major Weekend Events

Crude oil prices plunged over 4% in dark pool trading as tensions between the US and Iran appeared to cool. The US paused its air strikes on Iran for a second consecutive night, while Iran indicated it had refrained from retaliatory actions and held talks with Oman regarding the Strait of Hormuz. After 13 consecutive days of strikes, the US military actions halted late Friday night without explanation, fueling speculation about President Trump's next move. Iran's military stated on Sunday that Tehran had also ceased its counterattacks. Experts suggest the pause in US air strikes may signal an attempt to de-escalate the situation. The temporary ceasefire coincides with weekend talks between Iranian and Omani officials, indicating renewed efforts to resolve the critical issue of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

In a significant development for the chip sector, NVIDIA announced it has secured a supply of AI memory chips from South Korea's SK Hynix. The agreement, announced in San Francisco on Friday night, is valued at up to $500 billion over several years and includes the construction of large data centers expected to begin operations in 2027. In a separate move, NVIDIA also announced a $1 billion investment in South Korean cloud computing company Naver, which is building data centers around NVIDIA graphics processors. Separately, Samsung Electronics, another South Korean tech giant, signed a memorandum of understanding with chip design firm Broadcom to expand cooperation in memory chips and foundry technology. This deal, valued at approximately $200 billion, is aimed at supporting next-generation AI infrastructure and will run for five years until 2030, focusing on producing products using Samsung's 2nm and below process technologies.

Contemporary Amperex Technology Co., Limited (CATL), a leading battery manufacturer, announced the largest share buyback scheme in A-share history. The company plans to repurchase A-share shares with a total fund of no less than RMB 20 billion and no more than RMB 40 billion, at a maximum price of RMB 573 per share. The repurchased shares will be canceled to reduce the company's registered capital, with the buyback period lasting 12 months from shareholder approval. This scheme's upper limit of RMB 40 billion surpasses the previous record of RMB 15 billion set by Gree Electric Appliances in 2021.

Ten Major Brokerage Firm’s Latest Market Assessments

CITIC Securities believes the recent oil price shock is not a simple repeat of the first quarter's impact but a secondary shock with different market dynamics. While the trajectory of the Middle East conflict remains unpredictable, negative events have been largely priced in. The firm expects a broad market recovery in August, focusing on the convergence of AI hardware and software, the valuation discount of domestic non-AI industrial stocks, and the convergence of tech and non-tech sectors.

CITIC Construction Investment characterizes the market as undergoing a "W-shaped bottoming" and "oscillation rebalancing." While short-term liquidity has stabilized, external factors like oil prices and rising US bond yields pose challenges. The firm sees AI as a long-term theme but advises waiting for external uncertainties to clear. Recommended sectors include AI upstream materials and equipment, midstream manufacturing exports, and upstream resources and defensive plays.

Guojin Strategy advises a "wait and see" approach, noting that the AI industry chain is still grappling with business model validation, while Korean deleveraging and slow domestic position unwinding could delay a rally. The firm sees limited potential for a second acceleration in AI investment and suggests focusing on industrial metals and exports as a defensive play, especially if US real interest rates fall.

China Merchants Strategy suggests the market is in a bottoming zone and positioning for a rebound. Regulatory signals and buybacks provide a foundation for a bottom, but tech sector deleveraging may cause continued volatility. The firm recommends focusing on tech repair and areas with improving mid-year performance, such as TMT price hikes, resource products, batteries, and medical devices.

Shenwan Hongyuan Strategy recommends slowing down and waiting for a new consensus to emerge. During the market's consolidation phase, the firm sees opportunities in non-tech rotation, including sectors like securities, industrial metals, and pharmaceuticals. The firm believes that large-scale trends will likely still be led by tech, but with a broader "blooming of all flowers" scenario.

Dongwu Strategy notes that a style shift is underway but does not signal the end of the tech rally. However, betting solely on tech is no longer the optimal strategy. The firm recommends increasing focus on AI mid-to-downstream sectors and favoring upstream hardware areas with volume growth logic and high supply barriers.

BOC International Strategy advises waiting for consensus to re-accumulate. The short-term core variable is not a single data point but the convergence of market divergences. The firm suggests following current themes of risk aversion and pro-cyclical sectors, such as non-ferrous metals, which benefit from inflation hedging, supply constraints, and geopolitical risks.

Industrial Securities Strategy argues that the high concentration of fund holdings in electronics and communications is not a sufficient reason to be strategically bearish on tech. The fund's quarterly report needs objective analysis, and the core judgment should be based on industrial trends and performance outlook. The firm awaits more clarity from key events like US tech earnings, central bank meetings, and the Politburo meeting.

Everbright Securities Strategy expects the market to remain in a range-bound consolidation. While policy signals are positive, weak domestic demand and volatility in tech stocks limit the potential for a broad rally. The firm recommends a short-term focus on defensive assets like banks and utilities, with a medium-term focus on three high-clarity themes: hard tech, export chains, and resource products.

China Galaxy Securities suggests the market will focus on the dual verification of policy and earnings next week. The firm anticipates a more proactive policy stance from the July Politburo meeting and expects US tech earnings to directly impact A-share tech valuations. The firm recommends a balanced allocation, waiting for mid-year performance clarity in tech sectors while also capturing the repair window in low-value sectors.