Abstract

Kinsale Capital will report Q4 results on February 12, 2026, Post Market, with investors watching revenue, profitability, and earnings per share dynamics amid firm premium growth and margin resilience as consensus points to double-digit top-line expansion and improving operating leverage.

Market Forecast

Market expectations for Kinsale Capital’s current quarter point to revenue of $0.47 billion, up 12.16% year over year, with operating profit (EBIT) of $0.12 billion and EPS of $5.27, each implying year-over-year growth based on recent run-rate trends. The company’s gross profit margin and net profit margin are expected to remain solid given recent levels, while adjusted EPS is projected to rise in line with forecast premium growth and underwriting profitability. Kinsale Capital’s main business continues to be driven by net premiums earned, with ongoing policy count expansion and disciplined pricing expected to support growth and margin durability. The most promising segment is net premiums, which generated $0.41 billion last quarter and remains positioned for continued expansion on stable rates and favorable submission volumes.

Last Quarter Review

Kinsale Capital delivered last quarter revenue of $0.50 billion, a gross profit margin of 30.89%, GAAP net income attributable to the parent company of $0.14 billion with a net profit margin of 28.47%, and adjusted EPS of $5.21, reflecting year-over-year expansion alongside robust underwriting results. A notable highlight was quarter-on-quarter net income growth of 5.61%, underscoring continued margin efficiency. Main business performance was led by net premiums of $0.41 billion, supported by investment income of $0.05 billion and fair-value gains of $0.02 billion.

Current Quarter Outlook (with major analytical insights)

Main underwriting engine and premium growth trajectory

The market expects net premiums earned to remain the dominant revenue driver this quarter, supported by steady rate adequacy and continued growth in submissions across small and mid-market E&S risks. Kinsale Capital’s last quarter revenue mix showed net premiums at $0.41 billion, indicating a substantial share of the top line. With revenue forecast at $0.47 billion and EPS at $5.27, the company’s underwriting engine appears in position to deliver healthy volume expansion. Retention and targeted rate increases should underpin earned premium growth, while underwriting discipline supports loss ratio stability. The balance between growth and profitability remains the central narrative for the quarter’s earnings quality.

Investment income and margin sensitivity

Net investment income and fair-value movements have been contributing to bottom-line resilience, with last quarter’s investment-related items totaling approximately $0.07 billion. The forecast EBIT of $0.12 billion suggests that investment yield tailwinds continue to support operating earnings, though market-rate movements can introduce volatility in fair-value lines. A stable interest-rate environment helps sustain yields on the fixed-income portfolio, while any equity or fair-value swings can create quarter-to-quarter variation in reported profitability. Management’s asset allocation and duration posture will be key to maintaining net profit margin near recent levels.

Claim trends, expense leverage, and stock sensitivity

Loss cost inflation, claim severity, and frequency dynamics are the central watch items for the quarter, as they directly influence the gross margin and overall profitability. With last quarter’s gross margin at 30.89% and net margin at 28.47%, any movement in large-loss activity or severity trends can affect this margin profile. On the expense side, scale benefits and process efficiency can improve operating leverage as premium volumes expand, benefiting adjusted EPS. Investor sensitivity will be high to commentary on rate momentum, submission trends, and any signals on competitive intensity in E&S markets, as these factors influence revenue visibility and the sustainability of margin outcomes.

Analyst Opinions

Analyst and institutional commentary collected in recent months suggests a predominantly positive stance, with a majority expecting continued premium growth and stable underwriting margins to support EPS expansion. Noted institutions emphasize the durability of E&S demand and Kinsale Capital’s disciplined underwriting track record, arguing that mid-teens revenue growth with firm margins can translate into better-than-expected earnings. The bullish view highlights favorable submission volumes, rate adequacy across core lines, and operating leverage as the company scales, which together support the consensus for revenue of $0.47 billion and EPS of $5.27 this quarter. In contrast, the minority cautious views focus on the risk of claim severity spikes and potential normalization in pricing; however, these concerns have not outweighed the positive expectations among the majority of analysts. Overall, the consensus leans constructive, anticipating that management’s balance of growth and profitability will remain intact and underpin another quarter of solid performance.