According to a research report from GLMS SEC, last year's Lunar New Year period was characterized by two major themes: AI developments and tariff policies. The emergence of DeepSeek challenged notions of American exceptionalism, driving Hong Kong stocks to lead global gains while US tech stocks faced significant pressure. The implementation of US tariff increases on China and Mexico further boosted the US dollar and precious metals. This year, AI industry advancements remain a critical theme during the holiday, with technology sector momentum expected to continue and Hong Kong stocks possessing room for recovery. However, potential disturbances from anticipated short-term liquidity tightening and escalating geopolitical risks require vigilance. GLMS SEC's primary views are as follows: As the Lunar New Year approaches and domestic markets close, what new narratives might emerge in overseas markets that could impact post-holiday capital market trends? Last year, AI and tariffs formed two crucial themes. The sudden rise of DeepSeek momentarily challenged American exceptionalism, propelling Hong Kong stocks to outperform globally, while US tech stocks notably weakened. The enforcement of US tariffs on China and Mexico further fueled gains in the US dollar and precious metals. So, which core variables warrant close attention this holiday season? AI industry progress remains a key holiday theme. The technology rally is likely to persist, and Hong Kong stocks have recovery potential. Nevertheless, potential disruptions from expected short-term liquidity tightening and developing geopolitical risks must be monitored. Will this year's "Technology Spring Festival Gala" reignite the tech rally? Last year's launch of DeepSeek and robotics sector-driven valuation reshuffling within the AI industry chain, which spurred the tech rally, remains fresh in memory. Coincidentally, this year the catalytic effect of AI continues during the Spring Festival, with密集 launches of major models like ByteDance's Seedance2.0 and Alibaba's Qwen3.0. DeepSeek V4 is also expected to be released concurrently. The global wave of AI model iterations resonates with the Spring Festival tech festivities, forming a core driver for the technology sector. While it may be difficult to replicate last year's disruptive market trends, it could still provide phased trading opportunities for the market. Nvidia's earnings and future guidance during the holiday period will serve as an important reference for industry development expectations and risk appetite. Echoing this, Hong Kong's technology sector is poised to benefit from a dual resonance of capital flows and the tech rally, potentially leading to a phased recovery. Previously, Hong Kong tech stocks underperformed, significantly diverging from the overall trend of recovery in global technology sectors. This discrepancy partly stemmed from suppression due to earlier expectations of Federal Reserve liquidity tightening and the diversionary impact of capital siphoned by A-shares. However, historical patterns suggest that with A-shares closed, Hong Kong stocks often exhibit strong upward momentum during the Lunar New Year holiday. Coupled with the current catalytic effect of the tech rally and capital回流 driven by a strong Renminbi appreciation, Hong Kong tech stocks, as a valuation洼地 within the global tech sector, are expected to warm up during the holiday. Simultaneously, market risks during the holiday require significant attention, primarily focusing on potential liquidity expectation tightening and发酵 geopolitical risks, though their actual impact might be relatively manageable. On one hand, vigilance is needed against liquidity expectation tightening triggered by overseas macroeconomic data fluctuations. Around the Spring Festival, the US will sequentially release key macroeconomic data like CPI and GDP. Concurrently, potential statements from new Fed Chair candidate Waller will also be a market focus. Fundamentally, the US faces a series of macroeconomic data tests in the coming week. Particularly, there's a possibility of rebounds in CPI and GDP growth. Recent substantial increases in US January non-farm payrolls already marked an initial step towards pausing interest rate cuts. Against a backdrop of concentrated corporate price adjustments at the year's start, tariff costs might further transmit to consumers; the US January retail price index has shown a notable rise, potentially accelerating month-on-month inflation. On the other hand, according to the latest GDPnow forecast, despite political关门 disruptions, US Q4 GDP growth is still expected to reach a high level of 3.7%. Successive positive macroeconomic data might slightly weaken market expectations for rate cuts, creating some adverse disturbance for equity markets. However, the overall impact is anticipated to be limited. Firstly, the market has largely priced in expectations of the Fed holding rates steady in the first half of the year; macroeconomic data merely provides further evidence for this stance. Secondly,表面数据 prosperity难以掩盖 underlying US economic fragility—nearly 900,000 downward revisions in the job market annually, increasingly severe "K-shaped" economic divergence, and an unstable recovery foundation. Regarding policy statements, while remarks from new Fed Chair candidate Waller are highly watched, his policy stance is already largely priced in by the market. His short-term comments are often transitional and unlikely to颠覆 the Fed's established policy framework or rate-cut pace. Furthermore, the market has充分 priced in guidance for approximately two rate cuts within the year. Combined with low bank reserve levels limiting short-term quantitative tightening feasibility, a significant shift in liquidity expectations is unlikely. Considering currently low money market funding rates and the gradual release of TGA account funds after February, overall US liquidity should remain relatively ample. On the other hand, the biggest holiday market risk might be the发酵 of geopolitical events, particularly concerning Iran. Recent recoveries in gold and oil have been more pronounced, with oil prices一度 climbing to $70/barrel, partly reflecting potential geopolitical disturbances. As Trump's rhetoric on Iran hardens, explicitly stating that failed US-Iran negotiations could lead to deploying another carrier strike group to the Middle East, paving the way for potential military action, this continues his characteristic maximum pressure approach. Therefore, more extreme deterrent statements from Trump during the holiday, further escalating geopolitical tensions, cannot be ruled out. Additionally, Russia-Ukraine conflict negotiations present another variable. However, judging by Trump's track record and policy implementation pace, such statements are likely to feature "loud thunder but little rain"—evidenced by his high-profile remarks on Greenland followed by no substantive action. Thus, if geopolitical risks rapidly intensify causing significant equity market corrections, it might present short-term博弈 opportunities. Risk warnings: Major shifts in US trade policy; tariffs spreading beyond expectations leading to accelerated global economic slowdown and heightened market adjustments; frequent geopolitical factors increasing global asset volatility.