Circle Stock Drops 5% After Drawing Sell Rating From Bank That Led IPO

Tiger Newspress
01 Jul

Circle stock dropped 5% on Tuesday.

Stablecoin issuer Circle Internet Group Inc. has surged more than five-fold since its initial public offering earlier last month, but analysts at lead underwriter JPMorgan Chase & Co. say that the rally has gotten out of hand.

“We see competition as a potential threat to Circle,” JPMorgan’s Kenneth Worthington wrote in a note initiating coverage on the company at underweight. He also assigned the lowest price target on Wall Street, $80, implying a nearly 60% drop in the stock.

JPMorgan’s bearish call is surprising as firms that help guide a company’s move to the public market tend to be more friendly but Circle’s debut has been the hottest crypto-linked listing in years. In the days following the US Senate’s passage of stablecoin legislation on June 17 a buying frenzy in Circle ensued, driving the stock of the second-largest stablecoin issuer as high as $298.99, well above its $31 IPO price.

The boom brought out other companies, like Fiserv Inc. and Mastercard Inc., which announced a deepening foray into stablecoins. Now, with Amazon.com Inc. and Walmart Inc. reported to be considering their own, some analysts are beginning to worry about increased competition for Circle.

“We are witnessing the launch of tokenized deposit accounts, digital money market funds, and a host of new entrants looking to enter into the digital dollar market,” Worthington wrote. “The risk is that a few will succeed in taking enough share to reach critical mass in a business with low switching costs, allowing them to leverage the network built by Circle.”

Stablecoin legislation still needs to be passed in the House of Representatives, but President Donald Trump has been pushing for them to do so. A Trump-affiliated stablecoin with World Liberty Financial also has a roughly $2 billion market value.

Deutsche Bank initiated on the stock with a hold rating on Monday. Analyst Brian Bedell warned of a bumpy ride for the stock and told investors to wait for a better entry point.

“While we see potential for strong long-term industry adoption of stablecoins, the range of outcomes are very wide & likely to create substantial volatility in earnings revisions and the share price for at least the near-to-intermediate term,” Bedell wrote.

Bulls at Needham argue that Circle merits a premium valuation akin to Tesla Inc. or artificial intelligence companies due to the stablecoin “paradigm shift.”

Barclays said Circle, as one of the only public companies in the sector, has benefited from large inflows as stablecoin legislation advances. Analyst Ramsey El-Assal, who started coverage with an overweight rating and $215 price target on the stock, said that will increase with more positive updates.

El-Assal expects cryptocurrencies generally pegged to the US dollar and backed by reserves, like Circle’s USDC, to expand beyond the “crypto verse,” into more traditional finance.

Analysts are looking to Circle to gain market share in payments, remittances and crypto, but that will be dependent on how widespread stablecoin adoption is once regulations pass.

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