Donald Trump's return to the White House initially sparked a speculative frenzy on Wall Street and in cryptocurrency markets. Companies and digital assets linked to Trump and his family saw their valuations skyrocket as traders bet they would benefit from his renewed political influence.
A year later, while some Trump-themed investments delivered substantial returns, many others collapsed spectacularly, leaving investors who jumped on the bandwagon early with devastating losses. The dramatic declines of these assets underscore how many bets were fundamentally speculative from the outset.
"Sometimes irrational exuberance meets the brick wall of reality," said Art Hogan, Chief Market Strategist at B. Riley Wealth.
Trump Media & Technology Group: A Cautionary Tale The most prominent example is Trump Media & Technology Group (DJT), parent company of the Truth Social platform. Its stock became a proxy for Trump's electoral prospects, tripling in five weeks through late October 2024 as traders anticipating his victory piled in.
Despite never turning a profit and generating minimal revenue, Wall Street valued the company at $11 billion just before the election. By last Friday, shares had plunged 80% from their peak to under $11, leaving the company with a sub-$3 billion valuation.
Though Trump uses Truth Social as his primary platform for presidential statements, the app failed to achieve mainstream adoption. Similarweb data shows just 1.5 million U.S. monthly active users in November—paling next to X (54.2 million), Reddit (59.8 million), or even Bluesky (2.4 million). The company has since pivoted toward financial services, crypto, and AI, though these initiatives remain unproven.
Melania Token's 99% Collapse Other Trump-linked bets fared even worse.
The official Trump meme coin, launched days before his inauguration, drew ethics complaints. After peaking at $45.57 on January 19 (market cap: $9 billion), it now trades around $5.60—an 88% drop. With 80% of supply held by Trump-affiliated entities, the crash erased much of his paper gains.
First Lady Melania Trump's namesake token fared worst, collapsing from $8.48 (market cap: $1.6 billion) to $0.11—a 99% loss for peak buyers.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin mining firm U.S. Bitcoin Corp (backed by Trump's sons) surged post-NASDAQ debut in September but has since fallen below $2. Similarly, World Freedom Financial's token (co-founded by Trump and Steve Witkoff) has dropped to $0.14 after peaking at $0.25.
Private Prison Stocks Lose Their Shine Trump's election initially boosted private prison stocks like GEO Group (+175% by inauguration) on expectations of expanded immigrant detention. But his administration's preference for deportations over detentions reversed those gains—GEO shares have since halved.
"I completely exited private prisons," said Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital Management. "We expected mass ICE detentions, not deportations to El Salvador."
Winners: Bitcoin and European Defense Some Trump bets paid off handsomely.
European aerospace/defense stocks surged as Trump pressured NATO allies to boost military spending. Tuttle's Europe-focused defense ETF gained over 70% this year, attracting $1 billion post-election. "The frenzy was insane," Tuttle noted.
Bitcoin also thrived, rallying from $63,000 in September 2024 to ~$90,000 currently after Trump pledged to build national BTC reserves and replace crypto-skeptical regulators. Though off its October highs, it remains a standout performer.