最新数据给美联储快速降息泼冷水——市场观察

投资观察
Sep 25, 2025

美联储快速降息的难度刚刚增加了一些。在上周降息25个基点之后,美联储理事米兰认为需要双倍的降息速度以避免大规模失业,而主席鲍威尔则呼吁谨慎行事。今晨公布的三组数据显示,经济活动保持活跃,裁员仍然有限。

Capital Economics的亚历山德拉·布朗写道:"刚刚发布的大量数据表明,尽管就业增长放缓,但经济仍然表现良好。"市场对此的反应是抛售国债并买入美元。

在CME FedWatch工具上,10月份降息25个基点的概率从92%降至86%,押注维持利率不变的比例在增加。

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