On November 30, multiple experts at the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) Annual Conference (2025-2026) hosted by Renmin University of China highlighted significant growth opportunities during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030). Key drivers include deep urbanization, frontier innovation, and the development of a modern industrial system, which are expected to create substantial room for future economic expansion. Experts emphasized that fiscal and monetary policies retain ample space to support growth, with a focus on addressing structural challenges and boosting end-demand.

**New Growth Opportunities Ahead** Participants noted that China’s economy in the 15th Five-Year Plan era will benefit from multiple growth catalysts, such as modernizing industrial systems and unlocking diversified growth potential. Yang Ruilong, a National Distinguished Professor at Renmin University and CMF co-founder, pointed out that frontier technological innovation, exemplified by emerging firms like DeepSeek, will spearhead future growth. Beyond innovation, Yang highlighted deep urbanization as a major driver for consumption upgrades and economic restructuring, alongside reforms to income distribution and new technologies to expand consumption. Structural reforms and leveraging demographic dividends were also cited as key growth pillars.

Liu Xiaoguang, Deputy Director of the National Academy of Development and Strategy at Renmin University and a core CMF member, projected that 2026—the first year of the 15th Five-Year Plan—will see policy tailwinds and strategic investments fueling sustained growth. Proactive fiscal policies and accommodative monetary measures are expected to underpin economic recovery. Liu added that sectors like modern industrial systems, domestic demand expansion, regional coordination, sci-tech innovation, and healthcare modernization will attract significant investments, providing a strong boost to 2026 growth.

**Accumulating Positive Factors** Yang Ruilong stressed that tapping these growth areas could elevate China’s potential growth rate. Liu Xiaoguang observed that recent macro-policy adjustments have yielded positive outcomes: asset price recalibration, corporate balance-sheet recovery, steady core CPI growth, and wealth effects from A-share market expansion are accelerating favorable trends.

Looking ahead, experts agreed that fiscal and monetary policies retain substantial maneuvering room. Liu noted that the Loan Prime Rate (LPR) has remained unchanged for six months after a minor 10-basis-point cut in May 2025, leaving room for further monetary easing in 2026. On the fiscal front, debt resolution and revenue recovery have expanded policy flexibility.

**Boosting End-Demand** Liu Shijin, former Deputy Director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, urged policies to tackle structural imbalances in end-consumption by channeling fiscal resources toward raising middle- and low-income earnings and fostering developmental consumption. He proposed measures like transferring state-owned equity to social security funds for capital market investment, short-term fiscal subsidies, and pension reforms to increase rural and urban retirees’ monthly income. Land rights reforms to boost rural residents’ property income were also recommended.

Liu further emphasized expanding imports to access global goods and services and scaling up service consumption, particularly developmental spending. Li Yang, Director of the National Institution for Finance & Development at CASS, identified capital market development as a priority for the 15th Five-Year Plan, stressing five areas: integrating investment and financing, expanding derivatives, enhancing listed firms’ market value management, strengthening dividends and buybacks, and advancing tokenization (RWA) markets.