加拿大银行股飙升背后暗藏隐忧

投资观察
Jul 18

加拿大银行业正引领多伦多证券交易所屡创新高,然而,罗森伯格研究公司的戴维·罗森伯格指出,其估值已攀升至远超基本面合理支撑的水平。他建议投资者考虑调整过高的仓位配置。

罗森伯格承认,银行业的基本面确实表现良好,但可能难以完全支撑2026年六大银行股价约33%的强劲涨幅。本轮上涨的主要驱动力在于信贷损失出现逆转,导致拨备减少,从而推高了盈利水平。

不过,罗森伯格警告称,此类拨备释放通常具有不可重复性。然而,目前这六大银行的平均交易价格已达到预期2027年盈利的约15倍,而历史平均水平仅为11倍左右。

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