GTHT has released a research report stating that space-based computing centers are emerging as a future solution for high-power consumption computing, with demand for solar arrays as a core component of commercial constellations expected to grow rapidly. China's commercial space industry is projected to reach a scale of 16.7 trillion yuan by 2030, and the market's rapid expansion is set to directly drive large-scale growth in the demand for space-based photovoltaics. The evolution of solar arrays towards lightweight, flexible designs with high stowage ratios has become an inevitable trend in the iteration of commercial space power systems, with substantive engineering validation already underway both domestically and internationally. Regarding battery technology, perovskite is anticipated to be the core long-term solution due to its high specific power and radiation resistance advantages. The main viewpoints of GTHT are as follows:

The surge in demand for AI computing power is intensifying the energy constraints of ground-based data centers, making space-based computing centers a future solution for high-power consumption computing. This positions solar arrays, as a core component of commercial constellations, for potentially high-speed demand growth. Currently, constrained by the scarcity of low-Earth orbit resources and the "first-come, first-served" rule, the world is accelerating the large-scale deployment of mega-constellations comprising tens of thousands of satellites. The high-density networking pace is pushing satellite manufacturing towards industrial-scale mass production, making the solar array power system a key delivery constraint. Although space-based computing architectures face severe space engineering challenges, computing satellites equipped with AI chips, both domestically and internationally, have achieved initial in-orbit operation and model validation. Coupled with systematic national policy support for commercial space and advanced photovoltaic technologies, China's commercial space industry is projected to reach a scale of 16.7 trillion yuan by 2030. The market's rapid expansion is expected to directly drive large-scale growth in the demand for space-based photovoltaics.

Space Environment Dictates Photovoltaics as the Current Sole Reliable Long-Term Energy Source for Spacecraft

The power system accounts for approximately 15% of a satellite's total cost, representing a highly valuable commercial core component. As satellites integrate high-performance payloads like AI computing units, the power consumption per satellite has increased significantly. Under the strict constraints of launch vehicle unit costs, the traditional path of physically enlarging solar array area faces economic limitations. To enhance the system's specific power, driving the redesign of solar arrays towards lightweight, flexible, and high stowage ratio configurations has become an inevitable trend in the evolution of commercial space power systems. Substantive engineering validation for this is already in progress both in China and abroad.

Solar Array Form Factor Evolves Towards Flexibility

While traditional rigid arrays are technologically mature, their thick substrates become a bottleneck limiting single-satellite power increases under the "multiple satellites per launch" model, constrained by the rocket fairing's envelope. Flexible solar arrays utilize ultra-thin, lightweight materials, with their mass and volume increasing non-linearly and slowly relative to area. With their extremely high stowage ratio and specific power, flexible arrays effectively overcome launch vehicle limitations and are highly suited for the batch deployment needs of low-Earth orbit constellations, representing an inevitable trend in space power evolution. The cell and circuit assembly forms the power generation core of the solar array. Flexible encapsulation materials like CPI film and UTG glass better accommodate the compact stowage requirements of new-generation, high-power solar arrays.

Perovskite Technology Positioned as the Long-Term "Ultimate Solution"

In terms of battery technology, triple-junction gallium arsenide is the mainstream and mature route in the short term, with P-type HJT and silicon/perovskite tandem cells serving as important transitional paths. In the long term, perovskite cell technology is viewed as the "ultimate solution." Gallium arsenide cells offer excellent performance but at high cost and are evolving towards thin-film flexibility. Silicon cells and silicon/perovskite tandem cells, with their low-cost and thin-wafer potential, are becoming core transitional routes. Perovskite is expected to be the core long-term solution due to its advantages in high specific power and radiation resistance.

Risk warnings include: the risk that incremental demand from commercial space fails to materialize as expected; the risk that technological evolution and industrial implementation fall short of expectations; and the risk of changes in industry chain development trends.