China's economy is poised for stable and positive growth in 2026, supported by favorable conditions and a solid foundation. With macro policies continuously demonstrating their effectiveness, the economy grew by 5% for the full year of 2025, achieving the target set at the beginning of the year. Data released on the 19th by the National Bureau of Statistics shows that the preliminary核算 results indicate the annual gross domestic product (GDP) reached 140.1879 trillion yuan, representing a 5.0% growth calculated at constant prices, matching the growth rate of the previous year. Specifically, the fourth-quarter GDP grew by 4.5% year-on-year, a slowdown of 0.3 percentage points compared to the third quarter's growth rate. On a quarter-on-quarter basis, GDP grew by 1.2% in the fourth quarter, marking the second consecutive quarter of accelerating growth, indicating a marginal pickup in economic momentum. Kang Yi, Commissioner of the National Bureau of Statistics, stated that the implementation of more proactive and impactful macro policies in 2025, along with the deepening advancement of building a unified national market, allowed the national economy to advance under pressure, moving towards innovation and quality. New achievements were made in high-quality development, and the main targets and tasks for economic and social development were successfully accomplished, marking a successful conclusion of the "14th Five-Year Plan." Kang Yi noted that in 2025, the GDP surpassed the 140 trillion yuan mark for the first time, growing by 5.0% compared to the previous year. The average surveyed urban unemployment rate was 5.2%, indicating overall stable employment. Goods trade reached a new record high, and foreign exchange reserves exceeded $3.3 trillion. For an economy of such massive scale, achieving such stable development amidst intertwined risks and challenges is no easy feat. Liu Shangxi, former president of the Chinese Academy of Fiscal Sciences, analyzed that the impressive data fully reflects the inherent resilience of the Chinese economy and highlights its characteristics of numerous advantages, great potential, and strong resilience. Recent indicators show positive changes in production, prices, and expectations, with the trend of stable and progressive economic growth continuing. In December 2025, the year-on-year growth rates of value-added industrial output above the designated size and the service industry production index both accelerated compared to the previous month. The CPI rose by 0.8%, the highest increase since March 2023, while the core CPI has maintained a growth rate above 1% for four consecutive months. The year-on-year decline in the PPI narrowed, and it rose month-on-month for three consecutive months. Both the Manufacturing PMI and the Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index returned to expansionary territory. In terms of policy support, a recent State Council executive meeting deployed a package of policies involving fiscal and financial coordination to boost domestic demand. Relevant departments are accelerating implementation to promote the expansion of domestic demand. Policies related to "new urbanization and new infrastructure" are being continuously optimized, with the first batch of funds already allocated in advance, creating favorable conditions for the economic start of this year. Kang Yi stated that 2026 marks the beginning of the "15th Five-Year Plan" period, placing China's development at a new starting point. Despite the deepening impact of changes in the external environment and challenges to domestic stable development, China's economic foundation remains stable, its advantages numerous, its resilience strong, and its potential vast. The supporting conditions and fundamental trend of long-term improvement have not changed. Overall, opportunities outweigh challenges, and favorable conditions are stronger than unfavorable factors. China's economy has the conditions and support for stable and positive growth in 2026. He mentioned that recently, major international organizations have successively raised their growth forecasts for the Chinese economy, indicating international confidence in China's economic prospects. The Chinese economy is like a vast ocean, not a small pond, capable of withstanding winds and waves, even storms and tempests. It is essential to strengthen confidence, maintain resolve, build consensus, hone internal strengths, strengthen innovation-driven development, deepen reform and opening up, continuously enhance the domestic circulation, promote effective qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth in the economy, and strive for a good start and steady progress in the "15th Five-Year Plan" period. A recent report released by the China Macroeconomic Forum (CMF) at Renmin University of China predicts that China's economy will show a "gradual warming" trend in 2026, with economic growth picking up quarter by quarter. Both real GDP and nominal GDP growth rates are expected to rise, with the full-year real growth rate forecast to be in the range of 4.5% to 5%, leaning towards the upper limit. Xing Ziqiang, Chief China Economist at Morgan Stanley, stated that 2026 will see both confident innovation driven by technological self-reliance and continued efforts to address livelihood concerns. 2026 will still be a year of exploration and experimentation, aiming to achieve overall nominal GDP growth, an improvement in the price cycle, stabilization in the real estate market to stop the decline, and a broad-based significant improvement in corporate profits. China Merchants Securities expects that in 2026, with the strong correction of "anti-involution" policies, the natural bottoming out of the hog cycle and inventory cycle, and the cumulative effects of fiscal stimulus becoming apparent, China's economy will witness a "return of inflation and improvement in profits." Economic development will shift from a "fixation on speed" to "prioritizing quality," with the policy focus moving from scale expansion to enhancing the quality of development.