Abstract
Six Flags Entertainment Corporation will report on February 19, 2026 Pre-Market; this preview summarizes last quarter’s results, current-quarter forecasts for revenue, margin and EPS, the latest operational updates since January 1, 2026, and consensus-leaning analyst perspectives derived from recent institutional developments.Market Forecast
Based on current-quarter forecasts, Six Flags Entertainment Corporation’s revenue is estimated at $603.05 million with a year-over-year decline of 14.10%, and adjusted EPS is projected at -$0.17, implying a negative year-over-year swing of 153.12%; EBIT is estimated at $54.25 million with a 55.68% year-over-year decline. Forecast gross margin and net margin for the quarter are not disclosed; consensus commentary centers on normalization of off-season park operations and reinvestment timing following the prior quarter’s heavy one-off items.Management’s core revenue engines remain admissions and in-park spending; last quarter admissions were $664.65 million and food, merchandise and games were $443.13 million, with management indicating continued focus on price-pack architecture and guest monetization into spring break and early summer. The most promising near-term catalyst is the new international park in Saudi Arabia, which supports incremental attendance and per-cap spending optionality alongside potential brand licensing economics; accommodations and extra-charge products delivered $209.98 million last quarter, positioning the add-on spend category as a structural growth lever into the peak season.
Last Quarter Review
In the previous quarter, Six Flags Entertainment Corporation reported revenue of $1.32 billion, a gross profit margin of 50.53%, GAAP net loss attributable to shareholders of $1.19 billion, a net profit margin of -90.10%, and adjusted EPS of $3.28, with adjusted EPS up 83.45% year over year and revenue down 2.27% year over year.One notable financial highlight was strong adjusted operating performance despite a significant GAAP loss, reflecting non-operating or non-recurring items that weighed on net income and net margin. By business line, admissions generated $664.65 million, food, merchandise and games contributed $443.13 million, and accommodations and extra-charge products produced $209.98 million; the mix underscores the importance of pricing, visitation, and in-park monetization as the primary drivers of quarterly variability.
Current Quarter Outlook
Main business: Admissions and in-park spending normalization through the shoulder season
The admissions and in-park spend model is expected to enter a seasonally muted period, which is reflected in the revenue estimate of $603.05 million, signaling a 14.10% year-over-year decline. The company’s last quarter gross margin of 50.53% provides a reference point, but margin in this off-season quarter will depend on attendance levels relative to fixed labor and utilities as well as the cadence of maintenance and marketing expenses tied to spring initiatives. Adjusted EPS is forecast at -$0.17, consistent with an off-peak quarter in a capital-intensive, attendance-driven model where fixed costs weigh more heavily. Execution focus is likely to be on promotional cadence, pass and membership mix, and early-season events that can bolster visitation ahead of spring break.Within admissions, yield management decisions remain central: balancing pricing with compelling offers to attract incremental visits while protecting the value proposition. For in-park spending, food, beverage, and merchandise attach rates are sensitive to dwell time and crowding; targeted events and ride availability can influence this mix. Investors will evaluate whether the company can maintain the improved throughput and merchandise mix achieved in the prior quarter while navigating cost pressures in food inputs and labor.
Most promising business: Add-on products and international activation
The accommodations and extra-charge products category, with $209.98 million in revenue last quarter, remains a lever for incremental monetization per guest. Product innovation around skip-the-line offerings, premium experiences, and curated events can sustain spending even with flattish attendance, and the company’s merchandising and experiential bundles provide a framework to lift per-cap revenues. Given that forecast EBIT for the quarter is $54.25 million with a 55.68% year-over-year decline, management’s ability to expand high-margin add-ons becomes more important to offset volume seasonality and fixed cost absorption.A key development since January 1, 2026 is the opening of Six Flags Qiddiya City in Saudi Arabia, featuring 28 rides and attractions. This expands the company’s geographic footprint and creates strategic upside in international markets, with potential benefits spanning attendance, licensing, and brand equity. While the current-quarter revenue forecast incorporates typical seasonality and may not yet reflect full run-rate contributions, the activation signals a pipeline of non-domestic growth drivers that can diversify revenue streams and create medium-term catalysts around peak seasons.
Stock-price drivers this quarter: Capital structure and non-operating items
On January 8, 2026, Six Flags Entertainment Corporation priced $1.00 billion of 8.625% senior notes due 2032, with proceeds indicated for redeeming 5.375% and 5.50% notes due April 2027 and related uses. This reduces near-term refinancing risk and addresses the 2027 maturity wall, albeit at a higher coupon, which investors will incorporate into forward interest expense and free cash flow modeling. The market will scrutinize whether the improved maturity profile offsets the drag from higher cash interest, particularly in seasonally soft quarters when operating cash is lower.The gap between GAAP and adjusted results in the last quarter was material, driven by non-operating or non-recurring items. For the current quarter, clarity on any further one-offs, integration-related costs, or impairment charges will be crucial for reconciling GAAP net income with underlying earnings power. With revenue forecast down 14.10% year over year and adjusted EPS projected at -$0.17, any incremental non-operating burdens could amplify negative optics; conversely, clean results that align costs with revenue phasing could support stock stability into the seasonally stronger periods.
Analyst Opinions
Among institutional perspectives since January 1, 2026, the majority tilt is cautiously constructive, centered on improved funding visibility and international expansion rather than aggressive near-term earnings upgrades. The January 8, 2026 issuance of $1.00 billion in 8.625% senior notes due 2032 is viewed by several market participants as reducing refinancing risk and clearing the 2027 maturities, which can stabilize sentiment despite the higher cost of debt. The January 2, 2026 opening of Six Flags Qiddiya City in Saudi Arabia has been interpreted as a positive strategic milestone that could strengthen brand reach and add incremental revenue opportunities across admissions and add-on experiences, with the caveat that its financial impact will build over time.The bullish camp emphasizes three points. First, deleveraging and liability management actions provide runway to refocus on operating execution, making the capital structure more predictable into 2027–2028. Second, the company’s ability to drive $3.28 adjusted EPS last quarter, even with headline GAAP losses, indicates underlying cash earnings capacity when non-recurring effects are excluded. Third, new park activation supports a multi-year pipeline that, if matched with disciplined cost control, can enhance per-cap spending and diversify seasonality. These analysts acknowledge that the current quarter’s revenue estimate of $603.05 million and EBIT estimate of $54.25 million imply year-over-year declines, but consider these declines manageable in the context of off-season normalization and ongoing repositioning.
In synthesizing these views, the bullish rationale hinges on improved liquidity visibility after the January notes pricing and incremental growth vectors from the Saudi Arabia property, set against a deliberately cautious near-term earnings forecast. The majority of institutionally framed commentaries in this period refrain from calling for immediate upside in the current quarter’s EPS and revenue, yet they anticipate sentiment stabilization and potential re-rating into peak season if cost discipline holds and add-on monetization improves. Consequently, the majority perspective can be characterized as cautiously constructive, with the path forward contingent on clean execution, restrained non-operating charges, and evidence that the new park and add-on offerings begin to contribute visibly as the operating calendar transitions to the busier months.