On September 8, 2025, domestic futures main contracts displayed mixed performance, with glass futures surging over 3%. SC crude oil, lumber, polysilicon, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), coking coal, red dates, PX (para-xylene), and Shanghai gold all gained over 1%. On the decline side, the shipping index (Europe route) and industrial silicon fell over 2%, while alumina, caustic soda, cotton, and urea dropped nearly 1%.
Since last Friday, glass prices have rebounded significantly due to rumors regarding anti-involution policies in related industries, with prices continuing to climb during today's midday session. However, given that no authoritative institutions released new policy information over the weekend, caution is warranted regarding sentiment-driven impacts. At low valuations, the probability of oversold rebounds increases, but as prices rise and restore production profitability, there remains risk of prices reverting to fundamental logic.
From a spot market perspective, glass futures prices showed modest recovery last week. As of last Friday, the average price of domestic float glass stood at 1,156 yuan per ton, up 3 yuan per ton from the previous week's 1,153 yuan per ton. However, the significant premium of glass futures main contracts over spot prices somewhat compressed the positive impact from spot price increases.
Regarding supply and demand dynamics, recent glass supply levels have remained stable, with industry daily melting capacity holding steady at 159,600 tons. However, some production lines that ignited earlier are expected to begin output next week, potentially boosting glass production. Glass demand performance has been moderate, with logistics controls in northern regions leading to weaker production and sales in some areas. According to data, last week's glass apparent demand reached 1.0828 million tons, down 6.09% week-over-week. Glass enterprise inventories stood at 63.05 million weight cases, up 0.77% week-over-week. The slight inventory accumulation amid stable supply reflects relatively weak demand momentum.
Overall, glass supply and demand fundamentals have not shown significant improvement, but the market may continue to trade on external factors such as macroeconomic recovery and anti-involution policies. The market displays clear characteristics of a stage bottom, warranting attention to the implementation of anti-involution policies and glass spot market transactions and inventory conditions.