The recently released 15th Five-Year Plan for Accelerating Agricultural and Rural Modernization has set the comprehensive grain production capacity as a binding target, explicitly raising it from 1.39 trillion jin in 2025 to approximately 1.45 trillion jin by 2030. This indicator is crucial for the food security of over 1.4 billion people and is a key measure of national food security.

"The target of around 1.45 trillion jin reflects both stability and progress," said Cheng Guoqiang, a professor at Renmin University of China and president of the National Food Security Strategy Research Institute. Stability is rooted in the established foundation of grain production capacity.

After the Start of Autumn, in the fields of Yuanzhuang Town, Wenshang County, Jining, Shandong, corn has grown to over a person's height, with light green tassels emerging from the top leaves. "We planted the corn right after harvesting the wheat. Look at the strong stalks and lush leaves, with clean hearts. With plenty of rain this year, the seedlings are in the best condition in years," said Zhang Daoli, chairman of the Daoli Planting Professional Cooperative in Wenshang County, standing on the ridge with a sense of security. In the cooperative's large granary, wheat is stored in abundance. This summer, despite excessive rainfall, the drying tower, put into operation in previous years, proved invaluable, with a daily processing capacity of 300 tons. "The wet grain from farmers dries completely in just a few hours, turning golden yellow," Zhang said. "Stable harvests at the household level ensure the stability of the nation's granary."

This stability comes from a set of advanced agricultural inputs. Last autumn, Wenshang County experienced rare continuous rain that lasted over half a month. More than 4,000 mu of corn could not be harvested, and wheat planting was delayed by nearly a month compared to normal years. Just after the Spring Festival this year, the county organized nearly 100 agricultural technicians to work in villages and fields, providing customized plans to "turn weak seedlings into strong ones." Zhang Daoli's son, Zhang Hu, born in 1990, has been working in the fields since childhood and is a skilled young farmer. He showed reporters comparison photos; in just over 20 days, weak seedlings all turned dark green, with new secondary roots and tillers increasing significantly, successfully recovering the seedling condition. In recent years, the cooperative has used the "Liangyu 99D" corn variety, which is not only dense but also resistant to lodging and disease. They use air-suction seeders configured in 40/80 cm row spacing for even planting and uniform emergence. "Now we can plant 6,000 plants per mu, about 1,500 more than before," Zhang Hu said. In Wenshang County, the grain planting area in 2025 is stable at 1.5 million mu, with a yield exceeding 14 billion jin. The average wheat yield per mu this year is 581.5 kg, and the autumn corn crop looks promising.

Nationwide, in 2025, the contribution rate of agricultural scientific and technological progress exceeds 64%, the area under self-developed crop varieties accounts for over 95%, and the comprehensive mechanization rate of crop cultivation and harvesting reaches 76.7%. Initiatives like constructing high-standard farmland and revitalizing the seed industry have significantly improved the infrastructure, technical conditions, and mechanical equipment of agricultural production. This has driven total grain output to new heights, surpassing 1.3 trillion jin in 2015, breaking 1.4 trillion jin in 2024, and reaching 1.43 trillion jin in 2025. The summer grain output this year achieved a historic 301.49 billion jin for the first time. The target of approximately 1.45 trillion jin for comprehensive grain production capacity is based on the foundation of China's grain production capacity and is achievable with conditions and support. "Production capacity is the basis for output, and stable output comes from solid capacity. Years of stable production have fully demonstrated that China's comprehensive grain production capacity has the ability to achieve stable 'mass production.' The 15th Five-Year Plan period will further enhance the solid foundation of grain production capacity," Cheng Guoqiang said.

Progress involves balanced improvement in both yield and quality on a high base. How can we use less input to produce more and better grain on the same land? In 2023, the Daoli Cooperative began using integrated water and fertilizer drip irrigation equipment, remotely supplying water and fertilizer to corn via smart terminals. "In the past, we feared drought during the big bell-mouth stage and nutrient deficiency during the heading stage. Now, with precise supply, the corn is well-fed and has full ears, increasing yield by about 300 jin per mu," Zhang Hu said. Is the new equipment cost-effective? Zhang Daoli calculated: water and fertilizer use per mu decreased by 20% and 10% respectively, agricultural material costs dropped by 30% due to unified procurement by social service organizations, and the integrated water and fertilizer system and drone spraying saved labor costs. Overall, the annual income per mu increased by about 500 yuan, significantly improving grain production efficiency. "Our cooperative's production and service scale now exceeds 30,000 mu, extending not only within the county but also to other provinces," Zhang Hu said. "Everyone is more motivated than ever." The target of around 1.45 trillion jin represents a further increase based on a high baseline, with balanced improvement in both yield and quality. Currently, both China's grain output and production capacity are at historical highs, making further increases challenging. Moreover, China's grain production still faces multiple challenges, including total supply-demand pressure, structural imbalances, and external uncertainties. Domestically, constraints such as limited arable land resources, uneven water resource distribution, and long land restoration cycles persist. Internationally, factors like escalating geopolitical tensions, frequent extreme weather, and tightening agricultural export policies in some countries continue to accumulate global food security risks. "The new target of around 1.45 trillion jin aims to use the stability of comprehensive grain production capacity to counter the uncertainty of the external environment, ensuring the initiative in food security remains firmly in our hands," Cheng Guoqiang said. The plan explicitly states "promoting the shift from yield-oriented agriculture to a balanced focus on both yield and quality." This clearly signals that the next step in enhancing China's comprehensive grain production capacity is not just about quantitative changes. Facing the trend of continuously upgrading food consumption, it is necessary to scientifically coordinate the effective improvement of quality and reasonable growth of quantity, enhancing the adaptability of the agricultural supply system.

Comprehensive grain production capacity is, overall, a manifestation of policy support capacity, technical support capacity, arable land stability potential, and risk resistance capacity. In terms of policy support, systems are in place, from implementing party and government responsibility for food security, to strengthening price, subsidy, and insurance policy support and coordination. This includes targeted allocation of central financial funds for disaster prevention and relief and stable production, as well as orderly release of commercial reserves to stabilize the domestic fertilizer market. A practical policy framework has been established to ensure stable and secure supply of grain and other key agricultural products. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that strategic forward-looking research should be strengthened, policy implementation methods improved, and the policy toolbox enriched to continuously enhance the precision, stability, and effectiveness of agricultural policies. Regarding technical support, from smart machinery to precise water and fertilizer management, and the integrated efficiency of good fields, seeds, machines, and methods, technology drives large-scale yield increases. In 2025, yield increases contributed over 90% to the national grain output increase. During the 15th Five-Year Plan period, efforts will be made to further enhance the effectiveness of scientific and technological capacity building, accelerate the development and promotion of urgently needed breakthrough varieties, speed up the research and application of smart and high-end machinery suitable for hilly and mountainous areas, and promote "AI plus agriculture," making new quality productive forces a "new engine" for modern agricultural development. In terms of arable land stability potential, building high-standard farmland is a key measure to improve land quality. The country has built over 1 billion mu of high-standard farmland, basically achieving reduced disaster losses, stable output during minor disasters, and increased output without disasters. This has significantly supported the continuous decline in the proportion of sown area affected by disasters, which dropped to about 7% during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. The next step is to continue high-quality construction and management of high-standard farmland to ensure that each project is built to standard, laying a solid foundation for grain production capacity. Regarding risk resistance capacity, disasters are the biggest variable affecting grain production. As one of the countries most severely affected by natural disasters, China's average annual crop disaster area over the past five years has been over 150 million mu. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs stated that the focus should shift from post-disaster relief to pre-disaster prevention, from subjective experience-based judgment to precise scientific and technological empowerment, and from passive emergency response to normalized and long-term preparedness, transforming agricultural production from "depending on the weather" to "knowing and acting on the weather." "This year's corn is growing vigorously. With more rain and muggy weather recently, we need to implement 'one spray, multiple promotions' and strengthen pest control," Zhang Daoli said. "Step by step, working steadily, a yield of over 1,700 jin per mu is achievable." The 15th Five-Year Plan period is a critical time for solidifying the foundation and fully advancing the basic realization of socialist modernization. Taking the high base as a new starting point, we will accelerate the pace of agricultural and rural modernization development, continuously propelling China's food security to a higher level.