Orient Securities Company Limited released a research report indicating that domestic white goods sales continued their downward trend under a high base, with Q2 performance generally meeting expectations. Air conditioner exports saw a narrower decline, while refrigerator and washing machine exports remained robust, a trend likely to persist. The firm believes that annual white goods performance will follow a pattern of low growth in the first half and higher growth in the second half, with monthly growth rates potentially improving sequentially.
Refrigerator and washing machine exports benefit from sustained strong overseas demand, policy support, and market dividends, with major brands generally seeing export growth. This overseas demand momentum is expected to continue, with market share increasingly concentrating on leading brands that adapt well to international markets.
Domestic Air Conditioner Sales Decline Narrows, Refrigerator and Washing Machine Markets Stable
According to data from Industry Online, June saw domestic air conditioner sales of 11.402 million units, down 7.4% year-on-year. Compared to May's 15.0% decline, the drop narrowed, mainly due to the June 18 shopping festival, which helped clear online inventory and prompted some restocking by companies. June domestic refrigerator sales were 3.439 million units, down 4.2% year-on-year, while washing machine sales reached 2.66 million units, a 9.6% decrease.
By brand, in the household air conditioner sector, Midea and Gree led in domestic sales volume. In June, Midea sold 3.2 million units domestically, holding a 28.1% market share. Gree sold 2.4 million units, down 26.2% year-on-year, with a 21.0% market share. Haier, Aux, Hisense, Changhong, and TCL followed in domestic sales, showing a continued divergence in brand performance. In the refrigerator sector, Haier sold 1.25 million units domestically, down 0.8% year-on-year, while Midea sold 620,000 units, up 10.7% year-on-year, bucking the trend. In washing machines, Haier sold 1.135 million units domestically, a 7.8% decline, and Midea sold 730,000 units, up 14.1% year-on-year. The firm anticipates that the overall white goods pace will be lower in the first half and higher in the second half, with sequential monthly growth improvements likely.
Export Divergence: Air Conditioner Shipments Still Falling, Overseas Heat Spurs Local Inventory Drawdown
Industry Online data shows that June air conditioner exports were 6.794 million units, down 7.1% year-on-year and 10.4% month-on-month, mainly due to the approaching off-season. However, the overall decline was mitigated by tariff relief and heatwaves in Europe. By brand, Midea exported 1.8 million air conditioners, while TCL exported 1 million units, down 18.0% year-on-year. Haier, Changhong, and Chigo all saw growth in air conditioner exports. Haier exported 490,000 units, up 22.5% year-on-year; Changhong exported 380,000 units, up 72.7%; and Chigo exported 80,000 units, up 166.7%. The firm believes that as inventory destocking across overseas regions gradually takes effect, localized heatwaves and restocking demand will continue to positively impact air conditioner exports, potentially leading to a marginal recovery.
Refrigerator and Washing Machine Exports Surge, Maintaining Around 20% Growth in June
According to Industry Online, June refrigerator exports reached 5.403 million units, up 17.0% year-on-year, while washing machine exports totaled 4.868 million units, a 20.2% increase. The overall positive trend for refrigerators and washing machines is primarily driven by strong demand from emerging overseas markets. The high growth in refrigerator exports is attributed to falling tariff barriers and the release of overseas restocking demand. Washing machine exports benefit from essential import needs in Europe, Africa's demographic dividend, and improved infrastructure and logistics.
By brand for refrigerator exports, Homa and Hisense exported 1.172 million and 1.041 million units, respectively, up 30.1% and 30.5% year-on-year, showing steady growth. Additionally, the top seven refrigerator export brands, including Midea, Meiling, Haier, TCL, and Konka, all posted year-on-year growth in June. For washing machine brands, Haier and Midea exported 1.16 million and 832,000 units, respectively, up 23.7% and 7.3%, solidifying their leading positions. Hisense continued its significant year-on-year growth, exporting 606,000 units, an 89.0% increase. The firm believes that refrigerator and washing machine exports benefit from sustained high growth driven by overseas demand, policy support, and market dividends, with major brands generally seeing export increases. This overseas demand momentum is expected to continue, with market share increasingly concentrating on leading brands that adapt well to international markets.
Risk Factors
Uncertainty regarding the sustainability of trade-in subsidy policies, potential tariff fluctuations, and volatility in raw material costs.